Can This Underdog Strategy Secure Back-to-Back Wins in the Circa Million VII NFL Picks Contest?

Ever wonder why some games just seem to conspire against you? Last week, I caught yet another brutal “bad beat” in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest — the Chargers choking away a double-digit lead only to sneek out a 29-27 win but failing to cover. That makes five bad beats this season for me, and zero lucky breaks so far. Frustrating? Absolutely. But hey, Week 6 did manage to snap my two-week losing streak, so maybe the tide’s turning—slowly but surely. Now, before you dive into these picks, remember they’re ranked from most confident to least. And if you think Seattle’s the team to watch, think again — the market’s still making up for misjudging Sam Darnold, a QB who surprised us all by not being a downgrade. Stick around, because there’s more here than meets the eye — from underrated Texans to a Rams front seven ready to wreck quarterbacks. Ready to separate the noise from the value? You just might find some gems amidst the chaos. LEARN MORE.

I caught another “bad beat” last week in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest when the Los Angeles Chargers blew a double-digit second-half lead and didn’t cover in a 29-27 win over the Miami Dolphins. That’s probably my fifth bad beat so far this season, and I don’t have a lucky win. However, Week 6 was a step in the right direction, as I snapped a two-week losing streak.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

I’ll discuss this game more in OutKick’s Monday newsletter, but Seattle is overrated because the market is overcompensating for being wrong about QB Sam Darnold. Everyone thought he was propped up by Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system in Minnesota last season, and Darnold would be a downgrade from former QB Geno Smith.

Knowing that was wrong, I invested in the Seahawks and Darnold during the preseason, so I’m a believer in this team. That said, Houston is underrated after an 0-3 start, losing coin-flip games to tough teams. The Texans will remind everyone Monday they are back-to-back AFC South champions and have won a playoff game in the last two playoffs.

LISTEN to Commanders-Cowboys analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.

Baker Mayfield is 17-8 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog with a +5.5 spread differential since joining Tampa Bay in 2023. As a road ‘dog over that span, Baker is 13-3 ATS with a +6.4 spread differential. Also, I keep hearing people talk about Tampa’s injured WR corp, but Detroit’s defensive absences negate that.

The Lions have lost three of their top four cornerbacks from training camp to injury, and safety Brian Branch is suspended for punching Kansas City Chiefs WR Juju Smith-Schuster after Detroit’s 30-17 loss on Sunday Night Football last week. Branch is the Lions’ second-best defensive player, behind pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson.

Detroit has gotten smacked by the only two good teams it’s played this season: KC last week and the Green Bay Packers, 27-13, in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Bucs upset the Lions on the road last year, and Tampa Bay “won the box score” in a 31-23 loss to the Lions as +6.5 road underdogs in the 2024 NFC Divisional Round.

The Buccaneers have a great run defense and can make Detroit’s offense one-dimensional. If the Bucs can stop the run, I’ll take my chances with Lions QB Jared Goff covering -5.5 vs. Tampa’s sneaky-good secondary. And, even if Goff balls Monday, Baker is good enough to keep this game close.

LAR made my card regardless of how badly they screwed me by losing to the San Francisco 49ers a couple of weeks ago, because the Rams should be at least -4 favorites. They are two dumb losses from being 6-0 and have the best yard-per-play differential in the NFL. Jacksonville is 23rd in net yards per play and has had the best turnover luck in the league.

My biggest factor in this game is LAR’s front seven vs. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Rams pass rusher Jared Verse is the best player in this game because WR Puka Nacua will miss this game with an injury. Lawrence ate seven sacks last week in a 20-12 loss to the Seahawks, and LAR’s pass-rush is as good as Seattle’s.

While no Puka could be a deal-breaker for the Rams, I trust Sean McVay and QB Matt Stafford to put together a solid game plan with the weapons they do have. Jaguars LB Devin Lloyd is out, too, which is more important than Puka’s absence. Lloyd is Jacksonville’s green dot, aka defensive playcaller, and its biggest game-wrecker with an NFL-high four interceptions.

Lastly, the Rams might be less popular in the contest because of Puka’s absence, and the Jaguars play in London every season. But, this is Jacksonville head coach Liam Coen’s first London game, whereas McVay is 2-0 in London with a +47 point differential in those two games, albeit in the “Jared Goff Era”.

This is a good price for Chicago. ESPN Bet data analyst Sam Hoppen does “composite ratings” using several sharp power ratings, and he says the Bears are rated 5.0 points better on a neutral field than New Orleans. When you add a 1.5-2.0-point boost for home-field, Chicago should be a touchdown favorite.

Furthermore, Bears QB Caleb Williams is improving in first-year head coach Ben Johnson’s system, and NOLA’s defense is 28th in dropback EPA, per RBSDM.com. Caleb should carve the Saints up at home, where he has a better completion rate, TD/INT rate, and QB Rating. Williams is 3-1 straight up and ATS as a home favorite.

The Saints got dumb-lucky to beat the Giants two weeks ago because New York turned the ball over on five straight possessions. Chicago is on a three-game winning and cover streak with impressive wins vs. the Cowboys and Commanders during that stretch. Ultimately, the “Bears -4.5” is light because they will be in playoff contention this season, and New Orleans is a 5-6-win team.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.