Buccaneers vs. Lions: Which Quarterback Will Dominate the Showdown—Goff or Mayfield?
When two quarterbacks, once cast aside by their original teams, now emerge as MVP frontrunners steering their squads under the national spotlight, Monday Night Football ceases to be just a game—it becomes a riveting story of redemption and raw talent. The 5-1 Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, take on the 4-2 Lions, commanded by Jared Goff, and the real question lurking beneath the lights isn’t just who will win? It’s—can the Bucs overcome a brutal injury list and still hold their ground, or will Detroit’s balanced attack and Goff’s sharp passer rating keep their momentum alive? With pre-game simulations leaning heavily towards the Lions and stats revealing fierce battles over yards after catch and clock management, this showdown promises to test nerves, strategies, and sheer willpower. If you’re wondering how deep the rabbit hole goes in this QB duel and what keys will unlock victory, you’re in the right place. LEARN MORE.
Both quarterbacks will be in the NFL spotlight on Monday Night Football when the 5-1 Buccaneers visit the 4-2 Lions in front of a national television audience.
Lions vs. Buccaneers: The Key Stats
- The Lions are favored to beat the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, winning 72.1% of pre-game simulations (as of Sunday) by the Opta supercomputer.
- The Buccaneers have been one of the best teams at using the clock to their advantage. They have scored an NFL-high 49 points in the last two minutes before halftime.
- The Buccaneers have gained 698 yards after the catch, the second most in the league. The Lions have allowed 418 yards after the catch, the third fewest.
Patrick Mahomes. Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen.
The most decorated quarterbacks of this generation play in the AFC. But while the quarterbacks of the other conference are less heralded, two of the NFC’s best teams are being led by passers putting up MVP-worthy numbers this season.
Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield were once cast off by the teams that drafted them, but they’re now producing at an elite level in their new homes.
Goff has piloted one of the NFL’s best offenses in recent years as the Detroit Lions have risen to contender status. But this season might be Goff’s best, with an NFL-leading 14 touchdown passes and a 120.6 passer rating.
Mayfield isn’t far behind Goff’s pace, with 12 touchdown passes to just one interception and a passer rating of 108.5 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both quarterbacks will be in the spotlight Monday night when the 5-1 Buccaneers visit the 4-2 Lions in front of a national television audience.
Detroit had its four-game winning streak snapped last week in a 30-17 loss at the Kansas City Chiefs, and the jury is still out on whether or not the offseason departure of both coordinators will hurt the Lions.
The Lions’ four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 8-16, while both losses (at Green Bay and at Kansas City) came in much-anticipated matchups – much like Monday’s meeting against the Buccaneers.
The Bucs’ only loss was a single-score game against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles. Their issues so far have been less about the box score and more about the injury report, especially at the offensive skill positions.
Mike Evans, the franchise’s all-time leading scorer, has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. He’s questionable for Monday Night Football, while fellow receivers Chris Godwin Jr. (fibula) is out, and Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and running back Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) also seem unlikely to play.
With so many playmakers limited or sitting out, Mayfield and the Bucs could be facing their most difficult challenge of the season.
Buccaneers’ Key to Victory vs. Lions
Tampa Bay’s lengthy injury report presents some challenges for the coaching staff. With the team’s top three wideouts injured, logic would say to shift the game plan more toward a ground-based attack.
The Bucs, however, have not run the ball well this season. They rank 27th in the NFL with a 32.9% run success rate and 24th with just 2.3 yards per carry before contact.
Although Irving is gaining just 3.3 yards per carry, he is averaging 0.311 missed and broken tackles per offensive touch. That’s the third most among running backs with at least 50 carries. Backup Rachaad White is forcing just 0.174 missed and broken tackles per touch.
Add the fact that Detroit’s defense ranks seventh in the league with a 32.8% rush success rate allowed, and the Bucs might be best served by putting their trust in some of their lesser-known pass catchers.
While Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton remain experienced and reliable options, a pair of young and explosive receivers could contribute. Kameron Johnson has been used mostly as a kick returner, but he had four catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in last weekend’s win over the San Francisco 49ers.
Tez Johnson is a seventh-round rookie out of Oregon who has shown big-play potential. He had a 45-yard touchdown catch last week and four receptions for 59 yards in Week 5.
Although Tez Johnson has only run 60 routes this season, he’s averaging 3.1 burn yards per route run, well above the NFL average for wide receivers (2.0). His average depth of target of 14.7 yards is also above the positional average of 11.0.
With a poor running game and some promising young weapons, the Bucs may benefit from letting Mayfield throw on early downs, especially against a Detroit defense that ranks 22nd in passer rate allowed on first-down throws (104.9).
Lions’ Key to Victory vs. Buccaneers
As good as Goff’s passing numbers have been, Detroit’s high-scoring offense is based on balance.
Since Detroit drafted Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall in 2023, the Lions have the best record in the league when rushing for 100 or more yards.
Rushing success has been a perfect predictor this season, with the Lions gaining 46 and 98 yards on the ground in their two losses and topping the century mark in each of their four wins (averaging 157.0 rushing yards per game).
However, running against Tampa Bay’s defense has proven difficult.
The Bucs rank fifth in the league, allowing 88.2 rushing yards per game, and their rushing success rate allowed of 27.9% is the NFL’s best mark.
But that stout run defense comes at a price, with Tampa’s defense playing with an additional player in the box on an NFL-high 61.3% of snaps. That could give Detroit an advantage with play-action passing.
Another key could be how well the Lions’ offensive line can pick up blitzers. Tampa Bay’s defense blitzes on a league-high 49.8% of snaps, and the Bucs have a 59.3% pressure rate when bringing extra defenders.
Jared Goff, however, has a 130.0 passer rating this season against the blitz, the third-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks. His favorite target in those scenarios is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a 36.8% target share against the blitz.
If his offensive line can give him time, Goff could add to his gaudy numbers and solidify his place in the 2025 NFL MVP race.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction
The Buccaneers have been rolling through six games despite playing in five one-score games. This week’s lengthy injury report and formidable opponent, however, could humble them a bit.
The Opta supercomputer gives Detroit a 72.1% chance of beating Tampa Bay. Our projection model also has both the Lions (52.3%) and Bucs (83.5%) (as of Sunday) in the top seven in the NFC in playoff probability.
So this could be a matchup we see again in the playoffs.
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The post Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction: Will Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield win this QB duel? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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