Bucs vs. Lions Monday Night Showdown: Uncover the Secret Bets and Player Props That Could Change the Game

As Monday night lights flood Detroit’s gridiron, two teams locked in harmonious rhythm early this season collide in a high-stakes showdown that’s got me buzzing. The Lions, despite a recent stumble against the Chiefs, have been orchestrating a near-perfect symphony with playmakers Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams all hitting their marks under Jared Goff’s savvy direction. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, spearheaded by Baker Mayfield’s clutch heroics reminiscent of Motown legends, have carved out a surprising 5-1 record — though their underdog status this week speaks to scheduling quirks more than talent. This clash promises a tactical ballet between Detroit’s balanced attack and Tampa Bay’s gritty resilience, with plenty on the line and sparks ready to fly. Curious about the full breakdown and betting insights? LEARN MORE

Monday Night Football motors into Motown for the first of another true back-to-back doubleheader, with two teams that have mostly been singing in rhythm early this season.

Last week’s loss to the Chiefs notwithstanding, the Lions have looked like the Temptations, with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams grooving in unison, put in a position to succeed at the hands of Jared Goff, playing the role of a young Berry Gordy.

If their workmanlike production is best appreciated in its precision, for the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield has been the leading man (think “Smokey and the Miracles”), with some incredible finishes and comeback, game-winning drives.

At 5-1, some may be surprised that Tampa Bay is this much of an underdog, but there’s definitely a scheduling factor — commonly called a “spot” — that isn’t doing the Bucs any favors.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6, 52.5)

In order to cover a big number, ideally you need to take a lead, stretch it, and hold on. Plus, the higher the total, the less each individual point in the spread matters.

The Lions’ offense has been perfectly balanced this season from an EPA/play perspective; equally strong via the pass as they are in the running game. Detroit’s fifth in the NFL in success rate on dropback plays and second in rush success rate.

There really isn’t a team in the NFL with Detroit’s level of balance (Green Bay and Seattle’s pass offense have been their key to success, while Washington and Carolina have been great on the ground on a per-play basis), but Atlanta comes closest to the Lions.

For the season, the Falcons have been a mini-version of Detroit, but part of the Buccaneers’ path to 5-1 has come from taking on teams in a sub-optimal state, and in Week 1, Atlanta’s run game had yet to get organized. The Falcons, tops in the league in EPA/play on rush plays from Week 2 onward, only produced 48 rush yards on 22 carries from Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but still out-gained the Bucs by almost 100 yards.

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More recently, the Bucs gave up 35 points to the Seahawks, but were able to take advantage of Seattle’s banged-up secondary. Then, last week, the 49ers lost Fred Warner, but their offense still out-gained Tampa Bay’s.

Mayfield’s miracles have won those close games, but no one would besmirch the Bucs if they fell to 5-2 because of a loss in Motown, in the same way we don’t downgrade Detroit for losses at Green Bay and Kansas City.

Whether Detroit covers will come down to whether Mayfield can again take advantage of cluster injuries, this time to the Lions’ secondary, as they were already going to be without Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed for a second-straight game, before Brian Branch hauled off and slugged Juju Smith-Schuster after Sunday’s game in Kansas City, getting himself suspended.

The good news for the Lions is that DT Alim McNeill is making his return on Monday, making it the first time that he and Aidan Hutchinson will be on the field together in over a calendar year, and if DJ Reader can go, the Lions should shut down the Bucs’ run game (without Bucky Irving) and make the Bucs’ offense one-dimensional.

Had Mayfield been brought down during a couple of his epic scrambles this season, the Bucs might be 3-3 and just another average team that’s in tough on the road in Detroit.

Pick: Lions -6

Player props

Baker Mayfield over 240.5 passing yards (-118)

Don’t tell Mayfield that the Bucs are in a tough spot, as he should be willing to throw early and often to keep up with the Lions, who, even in a loss to Todd Bowles’s defense last year, racked up 463 yards.

With Mike Evans expected back, and possibly Emeka Egbuka avoiding missed-time, Mayfield will have enough weapons to throw to, the urgency to do it and, against the Lions’ thin secondary, more than a few chances for a big play.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (+120)

It’s been a slow season for Gibbs within the Lions’ passing game. Since catching 10 passes on 10 targets against the Packers in Week 1, Gibbs only has seen 15 targets in the five games since, but he’s caught 13 of them. Those recent numbers are why Gibbs’ reception total is at 3.5 and juiced to the under. However, we know what Gibbs is capable of as a receiver.

The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing tailbacks, and the third-most receiving yards to them, so the Lions should know that getting Gibbs out in space against Tampa’s linebackers is an optimum play — especially with Lavonte David potentially compromised with a knee injury that kept him out of practice for much of the week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown under 77.5 receiving yards (-105)

Fading one of the best receivers in the league is never any fun, but Bucs’ corner Jamel Dean has graded out as one of the best outside cover-corners in the NFL this season, and after 11 receptions on 18 targets in this matchup last season, Bowles’ should be devising a plan to limit St. Brown.

St. Brown’s been held under this total in all but two games this season and he went over just four times all of last year, because he’s used underneath, over the middle, particularly to convert third downs and score touchdowns, versus stretching the field like a traditional No. 1. At roughly 10 yards per reception, even his usual six or seven receptions may only result in a total of around 70 yards.

Anytime touchdown

Mike Evans +100

If Evans is healthy enough to play for the Bucs, he’s good enough for us to play for a touchdown against a thin secondary. In 15 games played last season, Evans scored in eight of them, befitting his touchdown odds that often had a “minus” in front of them. At even-money or better, we’ll bet that Mayfield will be looking Evans’ way, knowing that even if he’s on something of a snap count, he’ll be on the field in the red zone.

Sean Tucker +525

The Buccaneers are comfortable deploying two running backs equally, having only shifted towards Bucky Irving as their clear No. 1 about halfway through last season. With Irving out, Tucker will see an increase in playing time, and has already gone from three carries to six totes and a touchdown in the two games that Irving’s missed. In something of a shootout against the Saints last season, when Rachaad White was out, Tucker had 14 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown, so he’s someone the Bucs have trusted in the past.

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Jameson Williams +175

Williams’ speed is always a threat, but with both Kendrick Bourne and Jaxon Smith-Njigba getting behind the Buccaneers’ secondary for long receptions the last two weeks, it might be something that the Lions’ can exploit specifically. After all, Williams had a season-high 11 targets against the Buccaneers last season.

Brock Wright +825

The “other” tight end in the Lions’ offense is always worth a look as a long-shot option, as he plays close to 50% of the offensive snaps. Sam LaPorta is the fantasy footballers favorite for his yardage consumption, but after chipping in with just two touchdowns in 17 games last season (implied odds of +755), Wright already has two in six games this season (implied odds of +200). Hovering around 10-1, it’s worth a sprinkle that one of the Lions’ tricky red-zone specials goes right … to Wright.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.