Which College Football Coaches Are Racing Toward Their Breaking Point This Season?

You ever wonder what it feels like to be a college football coach standing on the edge of a metaphorical—and sometimes very real—hot seat? Well, pull up a chair because this isn’t your average midseason pep talk. With Penn State and Florida already shaking up their sidelines, the firing frenzy is heating up in ways we haven’t seen in years. Eleven FBS teams are already in the market for new head coaches, and trust me, more are lining up like it’s Black Friday at the coaching carousel. Now, here’s the kicker: a handful of these coaches have just five or six games left to prove they’re worth hanging onto—or face the axe. Can they turn it around? Or are we witnessing the slow-motion implosion of some once-promising careers? Armed with insights from the Opta supercomputer, we dive into who’s barely hanging on and who’s already been marked for exit. Buckle up; this ride’s about to get wild. LEARN MORE.

A handful of coaches remain on the hot seat. Will they do enough in their final five or six games to stick around? We assess their chances.

Everyone in college football agrees that this year’s firing and hiring cycle will be one of the most active in years.

Penn State and Florida have already fired coaches, and there’s little chance they’ll be the last blue-blood programs to swap out head men. Already, 11 of the 136 FBS teams are in the market, and seven of them come from the power conferences.

More heads will roll in the next six weeks.

What happens next depends, in part, on whether a handful of coaches do enough in their final five or six games to demonstrate to their bosses and program donors that they deserve to stick around. Who can pull that off?

Let’s talk about it, with an assist from the Opta supercomputer.

College Football’s Hot Seat Coaches

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Current record: 2-5 (0-4 Big Ten)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 2.8

This is not going to get better. The Badgers will be substantial underdogs in every game they play the rest of the way, and they’re due for at least two more complete blowout losses to Oregon and Indiana. (In their visit to Eugene this weekend, there’s a legit shot the Badgers get shut out for a third week in a row.)

Wisconsin is ticketed for a 2-10 season or 3-9 if it’s lucky. Not a good place to be at any time, but extra not-good when the coach’s buyout is $28 million at the end of the season. (Buyout figures via USA Today.) Wisconsin doesn’t sound like it wants to fire Fickell right now, but the results in his third year are bad enough that we have to take the possibility seriously.

Chances of improvement the rest of the season: Zero

Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Current record: 3-4 (0-4 Big Ten)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 3.6

The Spartans are one of the most boring teams in college football. QB Aidan Chiles has a strong arm but remains erratic as a junior, with a Big Ten-worst 70.1% well-thrown rate. The offense has a mediocre 7.7% explosive play rate despite Chiles’ arm strength and the presence of a couple of talented receivers, Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly.

The defense is terrible all around and gives up 6.2 yards per play, only leading Rutgers (a ridiculous 7.9) in the 18-team Big Ten. MSU will be an underdog in every game the rest of the way and stands a decent chance of going 0-for-the-Big Ten. Coaches do not often get fired in their second year, but the Spartans, like the Badgers, are so hopeless that Smith’s firing must be in play, even at a $33 million buyout rate. (Smith’s payment would not be due in a lump sum, making a firing more plausible.)

At best, he returns for 2026, facing a make-or-break year.

Chances of improvement: Very low

Mike Locksley, Maryland

Current record: 4-3 (1-3 Big Ten)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 6.6

Locksley has built Maryland into a decent Big Ten program, and he should be commended for putting a lot of players in the NFL and restoring some respectability to the job since taking over in 2019. But fan apathy is a real concern; Maryland was last in the Big Ten in attendance in 2024 (not counting Northwestern, playing in a high school-sized field on Lake Michigan).

The program started 4-0 and had some real juice coming into October, even notching a rare sellout for its next game against Washington. But a blown 20-0 lead and two more losses to Nebraska and UCLA have left the Terps with nothing to be excited about. Even worse, this year’s schedule is likely to be the weakest Maryland sees in a while, given the annual rotation of Big Ten opponents.

At minimum, Locksley probably has to make a bowl game.

Chances of improvement: Medium-low

Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Current record: 3-4 (0-4 SEC)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 5.9

Freeze is winless in his first four SEC games of the year. As he’s been desperate to remind people, Auburn’s SEC opponents so far have a combined record of 25-3, and all four of the Tigers’ consecutive losses have been by 10 points or less.

Auburn has a good defense, ranking fourth in the SEC in success rate and yards allowed per play. But Freeze, who bills himself as a quarterback whisperer, has whiffed on his transfer portal QB two times in a row – first Michigan State’s Payton Thorne and now Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, who has taken sacks on an absurd 37.1% of his pressures faced.

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze reacts to a call during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Missouri, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill) — ***Freeze reacts to a call during the second half against Missouri on Oct. 18 in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)***

More bad news: Auburn’s best offensive lineman, center Connor Lew, is out for the season. The schedule does lighten up considerably down the stretch, but Freeze is in danger of missing a bowl.

Chances of improvement: High, but it’s a low bar from an 0-4 start

Brian Kelly, LSU

Current record: 5-2 (2-2 SEC)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 7.9

Good news: LSU just reached its highest point total of the season in a Power 4 game. Bad news: That point total was 24 in a loss at Vanderbilt.

LSU’s offense is one of the big disappointments of the season, and it’s only slightly the fault of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The future NFL passer has not met high expectations, but he’s got an 85.7% well-thrown rate (third in the SEC) and has stayed away from sacks while building a nice connection with giant tight end Trey’Dez Green.

The problem is that LSU cannot run the ball for anything, posting a 35.3% success rate on the ground. That’s third-worst in the SEC, and the team’s 4.6-yard average on designed runs is sixth-worst.

Chances of improvement: High enough that it doesn’t seem likely LSU would want to deal with a buyout north of $50 million. But keep an eye on it.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Current record: 2-4 (0-4 SEC)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 3.9

Stoops is the second-best coach Kentucky has ever had, only behind Bear Bryant. The wheels are coming off now, though. Kentucky’s offense fell off a cliff in 2024 and has not recovered this year, cycling through two quarterbacks and posting the second-worst explosive play rate and third-worst success rate in the conference.

The defense has fought like hell and almost did enough to beat Texas last week. (Nose tackle David Gusta is a good interior pressure generator and has a strong 14.2% run disruption rate.) But the offense is so bad that Kentucky has no path to winning more than one SEC game.

Chances of improvement: Tennessee Tech is on the schedule

Dave Doeren, NC State

Current record: 4-3 (1-2 ACC)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 5.4

You didn’t realize it, but Doeren is the fifth-longest-tenured head coach in FBS. Just about all he’s done since getting to Raleigh in 2013 is put a bunch of linemen in the NFL, win eight or nine games, and occasionally slip into the back end of the AP Top 25.

I wouldn’t declare his tenure dead until he’s been fired for several months. But NC State has slipped in both player development (a slowdown in NFL prospects the past few years) and wins, dropping to 6-7 last year and in a battle to get back to that level this year. The schedule the rest of the way is brutal, with a road game against a solid Pitt team followed by a home game with Georgia Tech, a trip to Miami, and home games against FSU and North Carolina.

Those last two games may wind up being soft targets, but Doeren is in danger of not qualifying for a bowl for just the second time since his debut season. Wolfpack fans seem to be very over him, too.

Chances of improvement: Medium

Dave Aranda, Baylor

Current record: 4-3 (2-2 Big 12)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 5.6

If this is how Aranda goes out, it will be weird. One of the most accomplished defensive coaches in the sport has a high-flying offense and a defense that cannot stop anyone. Baylor’s last two games, a 35-34 win and 42-36 loss against Kansas State and TCU, respectively, tell the story.

The Bears simply do not get to the quarterback, with a below-average 33.6% pressure rate and a 2.7% sack rate that sits dead last in the 16-team Big 12.

Chances of improvement: Medium, but missing a bowl is possible

Brent Brennan, Arizona

Current record: 4-3 (1-3 Big 12)
Opta supercomputer’s projected win total: 6.2

Here’s a tenure that just hasn’t gotten off the ground in two years. In Brennan’s first year, Arizona’s offensive line was so bad that the Wildcats couldn’t do anything with the final season of future No. 8 overall NFL pick Tetairoa McMillan at wideout.

Line play has remained a problem this year, as ‘Zona has given up a 37.8% pressure rate (fourth-worst in the Big 12) and a 6.5% sack rate of Noah Fifita (third-worst). The defense has improved from 2024, but not enough to get this team safely into bowl territory.

Brennan has a light contract and it would cost less than $11 million to fire him at the end of the season.

Chances of improvement: Medium

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