Cowboys vs. Broncos Showdown: Which Explosive Offense Will Ignite the Field and Dominate the Game?

If recent games have taught us anything, it’s that Sunday’s showdown between the Cowboys and Broncos in Denver could spiral into just about anything. Think of it like a roller coaster with no seat belts — thrilling, unpredictable, and absolutely demanding your full attention. The Broncos, riding a seven-game winning streak against Dallas (their longest against any team), aren’t just favored—they’re expected to keep jabbing away at the Cowboys’ armor. Yet, the Cowboys, led by a red-hot Dak Prescott boasting a passer rating of 120 or higher over four straight games, bring a potent offense that’s capable of lighting up the scoreboard in a blink. With both teams swinging between brilliance and baffling inconsistency this season, the big question looms: who will burn brighter, and who will flicker out? Buckle up—for this one’s not just a game; it’s a battle of fiery wills on the gridiron. LEARN MORE.

If recent results are any indication, anything can and will happen Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys and Broncos meet in Denver.

Cowboys vs. Broncos: The Key Stats

• The Broncos are favored to beat the Cowboys, winning 62.4% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer (as of Friday).
• The Broncos have won seven straight meetings with the Cowboys, making this Denver’s longest active winning streak against any team, as well as Dallas’ longest active losing streak against a single opponent.
• Dak Prescott has recorded a passer rating of 120.0 or better in four straight games – the longest streak in Cowboys’ history.

Given their pedestrian 3-3-1 record, maybe it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Dallas Cowboys look like a Super Bowl contender one week and a bottom-feeder the next.

The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos, meanwhile, are making a habit of displaying those same impressions over the course of a single game.

It’s anyone’s guess what we’ll see Sunday, when the Cowboys and Broncos meet in Denver, but we’ll build a case for each team to find success and come away with a win.

The Broncos sure didn’t look like they were going to win this past Sunday, entering the fourth quarter trailing the New York Giants 19-0, with 180 yards of total offense. They then decided to wake up, churning out 227 offensive yards en route to an improbable 33-32 victory.

Denver’s 33 fourth-quarter points were the most in NFL history by a team that was held scoreless through three quarters.

The Broncos had a similar frantic comeback against the Philadelphia Eagles 14 days earlier when they reeled off three scoring drives on three fourth-quarter possessions to storm back from a 17-3 deficit for a 21-17 victory.

By pulling out a fourth straight win, the 5-2 Broncos stayed in control of the AFC West, and the Opta supercomputer puts their chances of winning the division at 33.0% – just behind the surging Kansas City Chiefs at 34.7%.

The Cowboys didn’t need any late fireworks on Sunday against the Washington Commanders, cruising to an easy 44-22 beatdown. It marked Dallas’ third 40-point game – the most by any team this year – and the Cowboys lead the NFL in total offense at 390.6 yards per game.

They still find themselves with two fewer wins than the NFC East-leading Eagles, however, and the Opta supercomputer has them just outside the postseason picture, calculating their playoff odds at 45.4% – eighth highest among NFC teams.

Good news, though, is that star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has returned to catch more touchdown passes, making a potent offense even more explosive.

Cowboys’ Key to Victory vs. Broncos

Lamb played in Week 7 after missing the previous three games because of a high ankle sprain and finished with five catches for a team-high 110 receiving yards – including a 74-yard touchdown.

It was his second 110-yard game to go with a 112-yarder in the three full games he’s played. He only ran three routes in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears before exiting.

Lamb was targeted a team-high eight times, but Dak Prescott did a solid job spreading the ball around, completing passes to seven other players, finishing 21 of 30 for 264 yards and three touchdowns for a season-best 130.4 passer rating. It was his fourth straight game with a QB rating of 120.0 or higher – the longest such streak in Cowboys’ franchise history.

Prescott found his favorite red zone target, Jake Ferguson, for a pair of touchdowns and George Pickens had four receptions for 82 yards after catching 19 passes for 359 yards and four TDs in the three games Lamb missed.

Prescott and Lamb make one of the NFL’s best receiver tandems, and Lamb’s return obviously makes the Cowboys better, but his mere presence on the field actually has an even larger impact on Dallas’ ground game than the passing attack.

With Lamb back, the Cowboys ran 11 personnel on 72.9% of their offensive plays against the Commanders after running an 11 look 59.4% of the time the previous three weeks.

Javonte Williams had five inside-zone runs out of an 11 formation on Sunday, gaining 59 yards on those plays. The former Denver running back ranks third with 5.64 yards per carry on inside-zone concepts, with the NFL average at 4.02.

No team has rattled opposing quarterbacks more than Denver this season.

Led by edge rusher Nik Bonitto, the Broncos lead the NFL with a 58.4 pressure rate, 65 QB hits and 34 QB sacks – eight more than the next-closest team (Los Angeles Rams).

Prescott’s 139 times being pressured are the second most in the league, and while this would seem to indicate major problems for Dallas, the veteran QB is showing poise in the pocket amid chaos.

Prescott’s well-thrown percentage under duress (89.8) is not only better than his well-thrown rate when not under pressure (88.3), but it’s also the best in the NFL and significantly better than the NFL average of 77.3.

His completion percentage and catchability rate on passes thrown under pressure are also much better than the NFL average, whereas his throws not under pressure are right around the league average.

A relentless pass rush has been instrumental to the Broncos’ success, but Prescott has routinely been faced with pressure this season and has shown he can handle the heat.

Broncos’ Key to Victory vs. Cowboys

While it will be strength against strength when Dallas has the ball, the same will not be true when Denver is on offense.

The Broncos rank 25th in scoring efficiency (34.6) and 27th in success rate (46.1%), while the Cowboys are 30th in opponent scoring efficiency (48.0) and dead last in success rate allowed (55.4%).

Denver’s offense, however, has proven it can shine – just take a look at its last quarter of work.

After sputtering offensively for the first three quarters against the Giants, the Broncos finally cut loose. Obviously, some of the play calls were a product of the desperate situation, but Bo Nix showed he can make those plays and that they might want to take the reins off a bit earlier – especially against a leaky Dallas D.

Through the first three quarters against New York, Denver ran a drop-back pass concept just seven times, but in the final period, Nix dropped back 11 times. He threw 10 passes, completing six for 104 yards and also scrambled once for 21 yards.

Marvin Mims Jr. hauled in two of those passes for 31- and 29-yard pickups and Courtland Sutton caught another for a 22-yard gain.

Sutton is one of the most dangerous receivers in drop-back pass concepts. His average of 17.27 burn yards per target ranks fourth in the NFL among the 37 receivers with a minimum of 15 such targets, and his big-play percentage of 53.9 grades out at fifth.

On all other play concepts, his average of 10.53 burn yards per target ranks 21st and his big-play rate of 26.6 is 25th.

Defending drop-back pass concepts is right at the top of Dallas’ list of deficiencies.

The Cowboys are allowing a league-worst 9.8 yards on drop backs – 0.9 yards more than the next-closest team (New York Jets), with the league average at 7.0 yards. They have also allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards out of drop-back concepts.

Nix and the Broncos haven’t enjoyed prolonged success this season, but opportunities should be there for them to pick up where they left off a week ago against a flimsy Cowboys defense.

Cowboys vs. Broncos Prediction

The Opta supercomputer predicts Denver will continue its mastery of Dallas, giving the Broncos a 62.4% win probability (as of Friday).

The Broncos have won the last seven meetings dating to a 31-21 loss in Week 2 of the 1995 season. This is Denver’s longest active winning streak against any single opponent, as well as Dallas’ longest active losing streak against any team.

The last time the Cowboys won in Denver was Week 14 of 1992, with the Broncos winning the last three matchups in Colorado’s capital. This will be the first meeting between these teams since Denver’s 30-16 victory at Dallas in Week 9 of 2021.

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The post Cowboys vs. Broncos Predictions: Who Will Win a Potentially Wild Battle of Red-Hot Offenses? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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