Unexpected Power Shifts Loom as Knicks and Warriors Face High-Stakes Showdowns Against Bucks and Clippers

So here we are again—dare I ask, is it “cool” to chat NBA right now? Honestly, maybe it never was, especially mid-regular season when the hype is more snooze than sizzle. But let’s not kid ourselves—there’s quite a whiff lingering after the FBI’s latest takedown involving players and coaches allegedly helping fix games and player props for the mob. Yep, the game’s got a stain, no doubt about it. Yet, despite how wild this sounds, I’m still sticking to the NBA betting grind. Maybe—just maybe—I’m unknowingly hitching a ride on the mafia’s inside track and snatching some wins along the way. If any La Cosa Nostra insiders are reading this, my inbox and DMs on X await your tips! Until then, it’s all about the painstaking homework and reading the tea leaves of lines and stats. Let’s dive into some Tuesday picks that might just make or break this rollercoaster. LEARN MORE

Is it cool to talk about the NBA again? I mean, I guess it was never “cool” to talk about the NBA, especially during the regular season, but you get my point. There’s quite a stink on the Association after the FBI rolled on it last week for players and coaches allegedly helping rig games and player props for the mafia and organized criminals.

However, as stupid as this may sound, I’ll keep betting on the NBA. Maybe I’ll unknowingly be on the right side of the Mafia’s betting action and catch a winner here or there. If anyone in La Cosa Nostra ever has tips, please email me at [email protected] or DM me on X at @Geoffery_Clark. Until then, I’ll just do my own homework. That said, here are my looks for Tuesday.

Take it from me, “closing line value” (CLV) in the NBA is a sham. I’ve generated a positive CLV on 900+ NBA bets across the last two seasons, but I have a negative return on investment. Well, Knicks-Bucks opened with a 232 total, and I’m not sure what the market sees in the Under.

NYK has the highest 3-point attempt rate in the NBA and allows the highest rate of 3-point shots on defense, whereas Milwaukee led the NBA in 3-point percentage last season. Finally, Jalen Brunson and Giannis Antetokounmpo get to the foul line as much as anyone, and high free-throw rates are the second-best thing for an Over bet behind lights-out shooting from 3-point range.

I’m going to seriously regret this, but I’ll gamble that either Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler plays Tuesday on the second of a back-to-back (B2B) or Golden State wins regardless. I was going to write something like, “This is a ‘lean’ and I’ll lock this bet in via X once their final starting 5s for Clippers-Warriors are announced”. Yet, I’ll make the plus-money wager now and hope for good injury news.

They’ve only played four games, and this changes if Curry sits, but the Dubs are leading the NBA in 3-pointers made per game (17.5). While the Clippers have played just three games, they are 28th in 3-point attempts allowed per game (44.0). This could be a “sticky stat” for LAC because they don’t have hustle players to close out aggressively on 3-pointers.

Also, this will be a game between two jump-shooting teams, and I’ll take Golden State in a shoot-out vs. almost any NBA team (again, ignore this if Curry sits). The Warriors are at home, so there is a better chance of their role players hitting 3s. Plus, most of Kawhi Leonard‘s and Clippers SG Bogdan Bogdanovic‘s attempts are from mid-range, basketball’s least efficient shot.

Finally, the market has bet LAC through zero and up to slight road favorites after the Warriors opened as -118 consensus favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. The same thing I wrote above about Knicks-Bucks applies here. Since the sportsbooks knew the Dubs were playing the second of a B2B before posting this line, I’m not convinced sharp money is betting the Clippers.

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