Week 9 NFL Showdowns: Shocking Underdog Picks and Expert Odds Revealed!
Ever wonder if a supercomputer knows who’s really got the edge on the gridiron before kickoff? Well, the Opta supercomputer isn’t just crunching numbers behind the scenes this NFL season — it’s laying out win probabilities for every game like some digital oracle of pigskin prophecy. As we gear up for Week 9, the usual suspects in the AFC—Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and a few others—are stacking the odds in their favor, while the NFC spotlight shines brightest on the Eagles and Packers. But here’s the kicker: these stats aren’t your standard betting lines or cheesy guesses—they’re raw, unsentimental probabilities that shift with every injury report and last-minute roster tweak. Sure, there’s always that wild card tie game lurking in the shadows, but this model doesn’t care—it just churns out the truth, one beep at a time. Ready to see which team’s got Lady Luck on their side this week? Dive into the data and find your edge—because in a game this unpredictable, who wouldn’t want a crystal ball? LEARN MORE.
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
Heading into Week 9, the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to win the NFC, followed by the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Baltimore Ravens (2-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 68.2%
- Spread: Ravens -7.5 (via DraftKings as of Wednesday)
- All-Time Meetings (Regular Season): Ravens 9-8
- Last Meeting: Ravens 56, Dolphins 19 (Dec. 31, 2023)
Quick Hit: Derrick Henry rushed for multiple touchdowns for the 29th time in his career on Sunday, surpassing Adrian Peterson for the third-most multi-rushing touchdown games all time. The only players with more are LaDainian Tomlinson (38) and Emmitt Smith (36).
Sunday’s Predictions
Chicago Bears (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 53.5%
- Spread: Bears -3.0
- All-Time Meetings: 6-6
- Last Meeting: Bears 20, Bengals 17 (Sept. 19, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Bengals have held the Bears without a 300-yard passer in all 12 matchups. That’s tied for their longest active streak when it comes to preventing any single team from reaching 300 passing yards, along with the Raiders and Titans.
Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Detroit Lions (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 77.9%
- Spread: Lions -8.5
- All-Time Meetings: Vikings 80-45-2
- Last Meeting: Lions 31, Vikings 9 (Jan. 5, 2025)
Quick Hit: The Lions have won five straight games against the Vikings, tied for their longest active win streak against any single opponent (Jaguars). The five-game win streak is tied for Detroit’s longest in the history of the series (1961-63).
Carolina Panthers (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-1-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 83.8%
- Spread: Packers -13.5
- All-Time Meetings: Packers 11-6
- Last Meeting: Packers 33, Panthers 30 (Dec. 24, 2023)
Quick Hit: Carolina has allowed at least 14 points to Green Bay in each of the 18 meetings (including the postseason), four games longer than any other streak the Panthers have allowed to a single opponent (14 versus the 49ers, 1996-2010).
Denver Broncos (6-2) at Houston Texans (3-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 55.6%
- Spread: Texans -1.5
- All-Time Meetings: Broncos 6-4
- Last Meeting: Texans 22, Broncos 17 (Dec. 3, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Broncos are 5-1 against the Texans when reaching 24 points, but just 1-3 when they fail to hit that mark.
Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at New England Patriots (6-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 61.3%
- Spread: Patriots -5.5
- All-Time Meetings: Patriots 9-6
- Last Meeting: Patriots 25, Falcons 0 (Nov. 18, 2021)
Quick Hit: The surging Patriots have won six consecutive games against the Falcons, the longest streak by either team in the history of the matchup and tied for New England’s longest active streak versus any single opponent (Browns).
San Francisco 49ers (5-3) at New York Giants (2-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 68.6%
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- All-Time Meetings: 49ers 18-17
- Last Meeting: 49ers 30, Giants 12 (Sept. 21, 2023)
Quick Hit: The 49ers are 4-1 at MetLife Stadium (2-1 vs. Giants, 2-0 vs. Jets), tied for the fourth-best win percentage by any NFL team at the stadium. Their only loss came in Week 5 of the 2015 season, when both teams combined for 24 points in the fourth quarter of the Giants’ 30-27 win over the Niners.
Indianapolis Colts (7-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 53.5%
- Spread: Colts -3.0
- All-Time Meetings: Steelers 21-8
- Last Meeting: Colts 27, Steelers 24 (Sept. 29, 2024)
Quick Hit: The Steelers are 16-2 at home against the Colts (including the playoffs). That is the best home record by any team versus any single opponent in NFL history (minimum 15 matchups). The Colts have not won a game in Pittsburgh since Peyton Manning threw three TDs in Week 10, 2008 (Colts won 24-20).
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 83.4%
- Spread: Chargers -8.5
- All-Time Meetings: Chargers 29-16-1
- Last Meeting: Chargers 27, Titans 17 (Nov. 10, 2024)
Quick Hit: The Chargers have not defeated the Titans in Tennessee since Week 16, 2009. The Titans are 3-0 at home against Los Angeles since that contest, the team’s most home wins without a loss versus any single opponent over the span (2010-present).
New Orleans Saints (1-7) at Los Angeles Rams (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 90.6%
- Spread: Rams -14.0
- All-Time Meetings: Rams 44-34
- Last Meeting: Rams 21, Saints 14 (Dec. 1, 2024)
Quick Hit: The Saints have not defeated the Rams on the road since Week 10, 2009. Los Angeles has won five consecutive home games against New Orleans since that contest. That’s the Rams’ longest active home win streak versus any conference opponent.
LA is also solidly entrenched in the good-good quadrant below, ranking highly in both offensive and defensive EVE (efficiency vs. expected).
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 69.6%
- Spread: Jaguars -3.0
- All-Time Meetings: Jaguars 6-5
- Last Meeting: Raiders 19, Jaguars 14 (Dec. 22, 2024)
Quick Hit: Brock Bowers had 11 receptions when these teams met last December, the third-most catches by any rookie in a single game last season. Brian Thomas Jr. had 132 receiving yards in the same game, the fourth most by a rookie in a single game in 2024.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 52.9%
- Spread: Chiefs -1.5
- All-Time Meetings: Chiefs 28-21-1
- Last Meeting: Chiefs 32, Bills 29 (Jan. 26, 2025; AFC championship)
Quick Hit: This will be the 10th matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (including the playoffs), with each of the last six games between these QBs decided by fewer than 10 points. This is tied for the third-longest streak of starts between two QBs decided by fewer than 10 points since QB starts were first tracked in 1950.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Washington Commanders (3-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 50.4%
- Spread: Seahawks -3.0
- All-Time Meetings: Commanders 13-7
- Last Meeting: Seahawks 29, Commanders 26 (Nov. 12, 2023)
Quick Hit: Each of the last nine regular-season matchups between Seattle and Washington has been decided by 10 or fewer points and the Seahawks have won six of nine in that span. The Commanders’ nine consecutive games decided by 10 or fewer points in the series is their third-longest streak in team history (11 vs. Eagles, 1991-96; 10 vs. Cardinals, 2001-17).
Monday Night Football Prediction
Arizona Cardinals (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (3-4-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 59.0%
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5
- All-Time Meetings: Cowboys 56-34-1
- Last Meeting: Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16 (Sept. 24, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Cardinals have won three straight games against the Cowboys and seven of the last eight matchups overall. Their 91 points scored in the last three meetings are their most in a three-game span in this series since the team moved to Arizona in 1988.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for All the Week 9 Games appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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