Why These Underdog NFL Teams Could Explode in Week 9 of Circa Million VII—And Win Big
Ever get that feeling the universe is just holding out on you—that luck’s just playing hard to get? Welcome to my NFL Week 9 card, where the whole theme is “they are due” — a cheeky nod to the players, teams, and coaches I’m banking on finally catching a break after what’s felt like a season full of heart-wrenching “bad beats” for me. Yeah, I’m sitting at a .500 record in the Circa Million VII contest after three straight winning weeks, but I’m itching for that lucky win to come knocking. So this week, I’m “buying low” on several squads who are overdue to turn the tide and bag some victories. From a New England QB who might be due for a cold snap, to under-the-radar defensive shifts about to shake things up, I’m dissecting every angle—ranked by confidence, naturally. Think a guy like Drake Maye can keep his arm hot despite shaky teammates? Or is it time the Colts’ offense takes a breather while Pittsburgh’s defense finally clamps down? And then there’s the Texans, the Seahawks, the Cardinals—each with their own “due” story begging to be told. Intrigued on who might cash in and who’s primed for a stumble by Sunday? Let’s dive into the chaos and unravel who’s really due for a big moment. LEARN MORE.
The theme of my NFL Week 9 card is “they [players, teams, coaches, etc.] are due”. Even though I’m .500 in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest after three straight winning weeks, I’m due some good luck because I’ve taken like 4-5 “bad beats” this season, and I don’t have a lucky win. Meanwhile, I’m “buying low” on a few teams this week who are due for wins.
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
The bottom line is New England QB Drake Maye‘s teammates kind of suck, so if he doesn’t play like John Elway, the Patriots are FUBAR. Well, Maye is due for a bad game. Objectively, he is a top-three NFL MVP candidate. Technically, Maye is the fourth betting favorite at DraftKings (+500).
Also, this spread is an overreaction to Atlanta’s humiliating 34-10 loss to Miami Sunday, which I had on my Week 8 card. New England was a -2.5 favorite on the look-ahead line for Week 9. I’m ignoring their loss last week because the Falcons started backup QB Kirk Cousins, and WR Drake London was out. London and starting QB Michael Penix Jr. are expected to return this week.
While Penix isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire in his second season, like Maye, Cousins is too old to be an NFL starter. Plus, London is one of the best receivers in the league. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson only got 12 touches last week, and that just can’t happen. Atlanta’s offense will look much better if Penix and London return, and Bijan should get more work Sunday.
The Falcons have a higher yards-per-play differential and a better net early-down success rate, even though the Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. Lastly, they both beat the Buffalo Bills: Atlanta won 24-14, and New England won 23-20. But the Falcons had better yards-per-play and first-down margins vs. the Bills.
My “they are due” angles for this game are Indy’s offense and QB Daniel Jones are due for a bad game, and Pittsburgh’s defense will turn it around. Indianapolis looks like the greatest show on turf, and RB Jonathan Taylor is in the MVP conversation. But they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and eventually the Colts will have a down game. Right?
I know the Steelers’ defense keeps getting crushed. However, they still have great players, such as 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, All-Pro DT Cameron Heyward, and All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey. I’m betting these guys and Mike Tomlin will figure out how to slow the Colts down this week. Maybe Tomlin keys on the run and makes Jones beat them through the air.
Also, Aaron Rodgers can still sling it, and Indianapolis has one of the worst pass rushes in the league. Rodgers leads the NFL in touchdown rate, and the Colts are 29th in pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN. I.e., even if their defense struggles again, Rodgers can keep the Steelers in this game. He has solid weapons, such as WR D.K. Metcalf and RB Jaylen Warren.
Finally, this line is just off by a couple of points. The Steelers closed as an expensive +2.5 home underdog vs. Green Bay last week, and Pittsburgh is a cheap +3, trending toward +3.5, at home vs. Indy. The Packers are at least 2.0 points better than the Colts on a neutral-field. Thus, the Steelers should be priced between a pick ’em and +1.5.
LISTEN to Colts-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark.
The oddsmakers are saying this is a coin-flip game, and Houston is due for a close win. The Texans are 0-4 straight up and against the spread in one-score games with losses to the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers when they were healthy, and Seattle. Houston’s expected win-loss record is 5.0-2.0 based on point differential.
Sports Reference does a “Simple Rating System” (SRS), which blends point differential with strength of schedule. Denver has a +5.6 SRS, and the Texans have a +10.3 SRS. Granted, you have to take Houston’s SRS with a pinch of salt because it clobbered the Baltimore Ravens without Lamar Jackson and the banged-up San Francisco 49ers.
Either way, I’m “selling-high” on the Broncos, who are on a five-game winning streak. Their wins include the Cincinnati Bengals with backup QB Jake Browning, the Philadelphia Eagles, whose offense has looked terrible at times this season, both cursed New York football teams by a combined three points, and the Cowboys, whose defense can’t stop a nosebleed.
Nonetheless, this is a bet on Houston’s defense, my favorite unit in the NFL, vs. Broncos QB Bo Nix. He’s being carried by Denver head coach Sean Payton’s playcalling and by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. But, Texans defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans can solve Payton’s scheme, and Houston’s defensive line can beat Denver’s offensive line.
I don’t have a due angle for this game; I just think Seattle will wax Washington Sunday night, even with QB Jayden Daniels returning from injury. Admittedly, I gave out the Seahawks on VSIN’s “Cashing Out” and my OutKick Bets Podcast because I thought Daniels would miss this game.
That said, I’m keeping them on my card since I was high on the Seahawks before the season and low on the Commanders. I bet Seattle to win 10+ games and Washington to miss the playoffs. Also, the Seahawks should be less popular in the contest this week because Daniels is playing, and hopefully, the Commanders will be a public ‘dog Monday.
Furthermore, this is a semi-widowmaker spot for the Commanders. They just lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 28-7 on Monday Night Football earlier this week, and the Seahawks are coming off a bye, so they have extra time to rest and prepare. The short week could be tough on Washington WRs Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, who have missed time recently with injuries.
Regardless, the Seahawks can beat the Commanders at full strength. Their defense is one of the best in the league, and could be getting back two starters in the secondary, CB Devon Witherspoon and S Julian Love. Seattle has been unlucky, too. The Seahawks have the worst fumble recovery rate in the NFL, and all four of QB Sam Darnold‘s turnover-worthy throws have been intercepted.
Arizona is on a five-game losing skid, and you guessed it, and due for a win. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray should return from a two-game hiatus Monday. They gave the Colts and Packers all they could handle with backup QB Jacoby Brissett. Arizona covered as a +8 ‘dog in a 31-27 loss to Indy and as a +6.5 ’dog in a 27-23 loss to Green Bay.
The Cardinals “won the box score” in a 22-21 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 5. Arizona almost stole the game in a 23-20 loss to the Seahawks in Week 4. The Cardinals lost 16-15 to the Niners but covered as +1.5 ‘dogs in Week 3. Four of those losses were to good teams, and the loss to Tennessee was one of the flukiest ever.
Everyone will bet Dallas Monday because of Arizona’s losing streak, and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is playing his a** off. Yet, Dallas is only a -2.5 favorite. The fact that this spread hasn’t been bumped up to -3 tells me someone smart likes the Cardinals, or the sportsbooks want more pro-Cowboys money. Or, at least that’s the final reason I’m using to justify this pick.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.
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