Inside the 2025 College Basketball Race: Dark Horses Poised to Shake Up the National Championship and Wooden Award Contenders

The Houston Cougars were just a basket away from winning the title last season, and I like their chances of getting the job in 2026. This program has become a powerhouse under Kelvin Sampson, who preaches aggressive defense and physicality.

Three starters return: point guard Milos Uzan, 3-and-D stud Emanuel Sharp, as well as defensive ace JoJo Tugler. They’ll be joined by the second-best recruiting class in the country, featuring No. 1 center Chris Cenac and five-star guards Isiah Harwell and Kingston Flemings.

All three newcomers have the defensive intensity to immediately earn playing time under Sampson, but they can also make tough shots — something this program has needed in big games.

Cooper Flagg won the Wooden Award last season, but even in the era of one-and-done players, it’s rare for freshmen to take home this trophy. Nine of the last 12 recipients have been upperclassmen, with a 22-year-old redshirt sophomore also winning the award during that span.

That’s just one reason why I like Michigan Wolverines senior Yaxel Lendeborg at +1000. The stat-stuffing forward averaged 17.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 3.5 steals per game with UAB last year. He looks more than ready to make the jump to the Big Ten after dropping 31 points against Cincinnati and 25 points versus St. John’s during exhibition play.

The No. 7-ranked Wolverines will be good enough to get Lendeborg national recognition while still allowing him to be the focal point of the offense. In addition, head coach Dusty May gives heavy minutes to his best players, and Michigan plays at a fast tempo, which should lead to inflated numbers for the 23-year-old Lendeborg.

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There are three traits that most Final Four teams boast: experience, continuity, and great guard play. The Purdue Boilermakers have all three of those in spades.

Wooden Award favorite Braden Smith and sharp-shooter Foster Loyer are four-year starters at guard, while All-Big Ten forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (20.1 ppg on 59.5 FG%) anchors the frontcourt. The biggest flaw on the team last season was the lack of an interior presence, but adding 6-11, 255-pound center Oscar Cluff (17.6 ppg, 12.3 rpg at South Dakota State) through the transfer portal should fix that.

While I’m not sure if the Boilermakers have the defensive mettle and athleticism to win the championship, they should at least make it to the Final Four.

It took a while for the new-look Arkansas Razorbacks to gel in John Calipari’s first year leading the program. However, he got them playing on the same page by March and took them to the Sweet 16, where they lost in OT.

They should get off to a better start in Calipari’s second year at the helm. Guard D.J. Wagner is a former five-star recruit returning for his junior season, while wings Billy Richmond and Karter Knox were Top-30 recruits in 2025 who could break out as sophomores. The frontcourt has been bolstered by transfers Malique Ewin and Nick Pringle, who join a healthy Trevon Brazile.

However, the main reason I like the Razorbacks in the loaded SEC is the presence of two freshmen: point guard Darius Acuff Jr. and shooting guard Meleek Thomas. Acuff was the highest-rated point guard in the class of 2025, while Thomas was the No. 11 overall prospect. Both players shone in the Razorbacks’ exhibition win against Memphis, and Calipari has never been shy about leaning on talented freshmen.

Two teams have better odds of winning the SEC than the Razorbacks: the reigning national champion Florida Gators (+260) and the Kentucky Wildcats (+325). That said, the Gators have to replace their top four guards from last season, while Kentucky has just one returning starter and less high-end talent than Arkansas.

That makes the Razorbacks a great value play at +750.