Texas Poised to Unravel Vanderbilt’s Hard-Earned Success—What’s Really at Stake?

Is this really the season where we admit there’s no bona fide #1 team… or are we just collectively losing our minds? Either way, the buzz around college football has rarely been this electric—and Vanderbilt, the sneaky sous-chef nobody expected to impress, is about to face a Texas team still trying to live up to its overhyped billing. Can the Commodores keep defying expectations after battling through a brutal gauntlet of ranked foes? Meanwhile, the Longhorns, bruised but unbowed, need every win to cling to a Playoff dream. So here’s the million-dollar question: Is this clash a preview of a playoff contender staking its claim or a cautionary tale of a faltering giant? Either way, don’t blink—you won’t want to miss a second of this showdown. LEARN MORE.

Vanderbilt vs. Texas, 12:00 ET

I had a very good college football weekend last week, going 2-0 on the plays I provided for Outkick. It has been a very good season overall, and I am looking to continue that this weekend. Maybe I am just not remembering correctly, but this season feels like one where the conversation has been about how there is no true #1 team. The rankings, in general, get a lot of complaints every year, so this is no different. It just feels like maybe we have more parity than ever. One surprising team is Vanderbilt, and they take on perhaps their toughest task yet, Texas.

Coming into this year, Vanderbilt was a bit under the radar. They weren’t expected to be a juggernaut, but that’s exactly what they have been. We got a win with them last week. That was another ranked matchup as they took down Missouri. This was a tough battle for them as they saw the game go into halftime at 3-3. In the third quarter, their running back, Makhilyn Young ran for an 80-yard touchdown. It wasn’t quite a back breaker for Missouri, but it did finally break the scoring open a bit. The Tigers tied the game with a touchdown drive of their own shortly after. They couldn’t get the stop needed, though, as Diego Pavia jumped in for a 1-yard touchdown. Missouri tried a Hail Mary that failed, and the game was over. It was a close battle, but a good one. This is now the fourth straight ranked team that Vanderbilt will have to face. They still have Tennessee (as of now the only ranked team remaining), Auburn, and Kentucky on their schedule. Their lone loss on the schedule was against Alabama on the road, but they did beat South Carolina on the road, so they’ve shown they can get wins against tough opponents even in a hostile environment.

Coming into this year, Texas was anything but under the radar. They were, apparently, overhyped. The team came in as one of the top teams in the nation and instantly lost on the road to Ohio State. Was that a big surprise? Not really, but the offense that was being raved about did basically nothing against the Buckeyes. They rebounded and put up a bunch of points against three average teams. Then they went on the road and had to face Florida. They lost that game 29-21. Since that point, we’ve seen them take down Oklahoma at a “neutral” location – which wasn’t all that neutral as it was in Dallas. They also went on the road and beat Kentucky and Mississippi State, both games needing overtime. I’m a bit concerned about this team not being able to pull away from good competition. They still have to face Georgia next week, and then Texas A&M the final week of the season, but they cannot afford to look ahead. They need to win all of these games in order to make the College Football Playoffs.

The Longhorns will be prepared for this game, and I fully expect Vanderbilt to be ready as well. However, I think Vanderbilt can lose and still have a path to the playoffs. It would be a lot less likely, but still possible. Texas losing will mean they don’t play in the College Football Playoffs, and, ultimately, have one of the more disappointing seasons from a team in recent memory. Texas at home typically has a big edge, and I think they get it here. I don’t love that they’ve had to play extra football the past two weeks, but I think this gauntlet that Vanderbilt has gone through will get to them here. Arch Manning was in concussion protocol at the time of this writing. I’m monitoring the situation. If he plays, back Texas -2.5. If he is out, Vanderbilt probably wins this game.

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