College Football Playoff Mystery: How Notre Dame Leapfrogged Miami Despite Losing Head-to-Head

Alright, so here’s the rub with the College Football Playoff rankings dropping their first top 25 this week — I’ve long been a die-hard believer in the head-to-head metric. When two teams’ resumes are neck and neck, that one-on-one showdown should be the ultimate decider. It feels only right, otherwise, why even bother watching the games? Might as well let a computer crunch those numbers from some sterile algorithm instead of letting the gridiron speak for itself. Wild, right?

That said, I’ll admit I’m about to contradict myself a bit here. The committee ranking Notre Dame at No. 10 while slotting Miami eight spots lower at No. 18 — despite the Hurricanes having beaten the Irish in a nail-biter back in August — isn’t exactly a gut punch or an egregious error. It mirrors the exact same spread seen in the recent AP Top 25, so… it’s not totally off the rails. Surprised? Honestly, most folks saw this coming. ESPN’s Heather Dinich even predicted this twist before the rankings hit, noting the contrasting trajectories both teams have taken as the season’s rolled on.

True, since that Labor Day clash, Miami and Notre Dame have been on two pretty different paths. That leaves me thinking, for now at least, the Irish deserve their perch above the Hurricanes — but hey, things could flip by Thanksgiving. But if you want the full breakdown on why the rankings shook out this way and what it means for the rest of the season, well… you’re gonna want to dig deeper.

LEARN MORE

When it comes to the College Football Playoff rankings – which unveiled its first top 25 on Tuesday – I’ve always been a supporter of the head-to-head metric.

If the resumes are close, then that head-to-head game should be the trump card. It has to matter, otherwise you might as well run the teams through AI instead of the football field. Can you do that?

This is the part where I’ll sound like a hypocrite. The CFP committee’s decision to rank No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2) ahead of No. 18 Miami (6-2) by eight spots is not a flagrant miscalculation. It’s the same gap as the latest AP Top 25.

This comes despite the fact the Hurricanes beat the Irish 27-24 at Hard Rock Stadium on Aug. 31. Is this a shocking decision? Honestly, we aren’t the only ones who saw it coming. ESPN’s Heather Dinich spelled out that scenario before the rankings were released:

Heather Dinich predicts the committee will rank Notre Dame higher than Miami since the two teams are going in opposite directions. pic.twitter.com/xUAb6X8vDS

— Grant Speaks (@GrantSpeaks1) November 2, 2025

It’s true. Miami and Notre Dame have gone in two different directions since Labor Day weekend. That opinion could change again by Thanksgiving, but for now the Irish should be ahead of the Hurricanes.

MORE: Updated 12-team CFP bracket

Why Notre Dame is ranked ahead of Miami in CFP rankings

Notre Dame has to feel great at No. 10. The Irish can earn a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff because of the new straight seeding model despite not being in a Power 4 conference, and they will rack up CFP appearances in this format.

The Irish lost to Northern Illinois last season and were left for dead in September. The Irish were No. 10 in the initial CFP rankings last season too, and they made a run to the CFP championship game.

This year, Notre Dame lost its first two games, but that 41-40 loss to Texas A&M – which is ranked No. 3 – does not hurt at all. The Irish have won six straight games by an average of 24 points per game since, and that includes a 34-24 win against USC – now No. 19 – on Oct. 18.

That trajectory might be the biggest reason why the Irish are ahead of the Hurricanes.

Notre Dame is No. 10. Miami is No. 18. Both are 6-2, and the Hurricanes beat the Irish head-to-head.

I’m fine with it.

— Matt Fortuna (@Matt_Fortuna) November 5, 2025

CJ Carr is a different quarterback than he was the first two weeks, too. Remember, he was making his first start against Miami. He averaged 241.5 passing yards with seven TDs and two interceptions in his last four games, and the Irish have a dominant rushing attack with Jeremiyah Love (894 yards, 11 TDS), and the defense has improved.

Why is Miami ranked No. 18?

The Hurricanes arguably have a better resume than Notre Dame with three victories against ranked teams this season – though South Florida and Florida State are no longer in the AP Top 25 or in the current CFP ranking.

Yet the 26-20 overtime loss at SMU on Nov. 1 gave Miami a second ACC loss, and the path to the ACC championship game – which might be necessary because the conference is not getting three teams in the CFP – is very complicated.

No. 14 Virginia (8-1) hasn’t lost in conference play yet. No. 15 Louisville (8-1) has a 24-21 head-to-head victory against Miami, which matters more in conference tie-breakers than November rankings. Even No. 16 Georgia Tech (8-1) has a better chance at getting to the ACC championship game at this point. Miami sits in seventh place in the ACC.

Does that mean the Irish should be ranked eight spots ahead of the Canes? Look at the trajectory of Miami again. Carson Beck averaged 243.8 yards with seven TDs and six interceptions in his last four games, and those turnovers were difference-makers in the losses to the Cardinals and Mustangs. The Hurricanes have several key injuries, including leading rusher Mark Fletcher Jr. (636 yards, 9 TDs) and receiver CJ Daniels (351 yards, 6 TDs). The defense remains solid, but the Irish have been a little better in those last four games.

All of that justifies the rankings, at least for now. Will that head-to-head come into play later?

MORE: Latest AP and Coaches Top 25 polls

Why Miami-Notre Dame argument could resurface each week

Miami has four games left against Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech and No. 24 Pitt. Notre Dame faces Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford. So that’s two common opponents, and the Panthers are going to be the potential tipping point for both teams.

If Pitt beats either team, the argument will no longer apply to the College Football Playoff because neither team will be in the 12-team field.

If Miami wins out, then there is a chance they could get to the ACC championship game. If not, then would they have a legitimate case to knock the Irish out of the at-large teams in the CFP.

The answer should be yes. The committee honored head-to-head on four other occasions Tuesday. No. 4 Alabama is one spot ahead of No. 5 Georgia. No. 11 Texas is ahead of No. 12 Oklahoma, Virginia is ahead of Louisville, and USC is two spots ahead of No. 21 Michigan.

If Notre Dame makes the playoff ahead of the Hurricanes at that point, then get ready for a two-fold argument. Miami won the game on the field, and the angst for the Irish getting into the playoff for the second straight year without playing in a Power 4 conference. In this case, it goes beyond Miami. Notre Dame could easily be the direct reason why a second ACC team will not get into the CFP despite playing half its schedule against the ACC.

The most likely scenario? Miami does not make the ACC championship game without chaos, and that will be the reason to justify keeping Notre Dame in and the Hurricanes out. Is that right? If the Irish continue to dominate the next four weeks, then that can be used in the argument. The resumes will still be close, but the losses to Louisville and SMU are a little bit worse than the losses to Miami and Texas A&M – especially if the Aggies make the SEC championship game.

Eight spots is a lot to make up without another loss, and the wins might not be enough for Miami. That doesn’t mean we’re going to stop arguing about this head-to-head debate.

College Football Playoff rankings

Ranking	Team
1	Ohio State (8-0)
2	Indiana (9-0)
3	Texas A&M (8-0)
4	Alabama (7-1)
5	Georgia (7-1)
6	Ole Miss (8-1)
7	BYU (8-0)
8	Texas Tech (8-1)
9	Oregon (7-1)
10	Notre Dame (6-2)
11	Texas (7-2)
12	Oklahoma (7-2)
13	Utah (7-2)
14	Virginia (8-1)
15	Louisville (7-1)
16	Vanderbilt (7-2)
17	Georgia Tech (8-1)
18	Miami (6-2)
19	USC (6-2)
20	Iowa (6-2)
21	Michigan (7-2)
22	Missouri (6-2)
23	Washington (6-2)
24	Pittsburgh (7-2)
25	Tennessee (6-2)