Unlock the Secret Twist That Will Change Everything You Thought You Knew About This Story
The Denver Broncos have been pulling off edge-of-your-seat thrillers lately, stringing together six straight wins that have fans biting their nails—and maybe questioning if Murphy’s Law is just on a vacation this season. As Week 10 rolls in, the big question hanging over Mile High: can they keep the momentum alive on Thursday night against a Las Vegas Raiders squad that’s been more “season surrendered” than contender? With the Broncos favored in a whopping 78.1% of Opta’s pre-game simulations and a defense that’s been downright relentless, this clash promises some fireworks. Yet, with Brock Bowers stalking the field as the Raiders’ secret weapon, will Denver’s streak hit seven or will Vegas pull off the surprise? Let’s dive into the numbers, strategies, and quirks that could tip the scales.
Despite some close calls, the Broncos have won six straight games. In NFL Week 10, can they avoid an upset against the Raiders?
Raiders vs. Broncos: The Key Stats
- The Broncos are favored to beat the Raiders, winning 78.1% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- The Broncos won both meetings with the Raiders last season after losing the previous eight matchups – their longest losing streak in the series since a 14-game skid spanning from 1965-71.
- Brock Bowers has been targeted on 27.2% of routes run – the highest rate among the 40 tight ends who have run at least 100 routes.
It’s been a wild last month and a half for the Denver Broncos.
By piling up one exhilarating comeback victory after another, they’ve gone undefeated since late September to compile a 7-2 record that’s tied for the best in the NFL.
The Broncos are the only first-place team without a division win, but they’re also in prime position to change that and become the NFL’s first team to eight victories when they open the Week 10 schedule at home Thursday night against a Las Vegas Raiders team that has seemingly conceded the season.
The Broncos improved to 7-2 and extended their winning streak to six games with Sunday’s 18-15 victory over the Houston Texans. Wil Lutz kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired in yet another come-from-behind thriller.
By outscoring the Texans 11-0 in the final period, the Broncos improved to 4-0 when trailing at the end of three quarters, while the rest of the NFL is 19-107-1 in such games. Denver now owns a plus-60 scoring differential in the fourth quarter this season – far and away the largest margin in the NFL.
Sure, Denver has mixed a 25-point thrashing of the Cincinnati Bengals and a 20-point rout of the Dallas Cowboys into its winning streak, but the other four victories during the team’s run have come by one, two, three and four points.
Having gone unbeaten since falling to the Los Angeles Chargers 23-20 in their lone division game back in Week 3, the Broncos have boosted their probability of making the playoffs to 93.0%, according to the Opta supercomputer. Their odds of winning the AFC West are at 58.5%, with the 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs (23.5%) and 6-3 Chargers (18.6%) still very much alive for the division crown as well. Sorry, Raiders fans.
The odds are overwhelmingly against Las Vegas for a division title, but there is a path to a win on Thursday Night Football.
Raiders’ Key to Victory vs. Broncos
There haven’t been many positives this season for the 2-6 Raiders, but Brock Bowers continues to look like an elite pass-catching tight end.
After missing three games with a knee injury, Bowers returned in Sunday’s 30-29 overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and was the focal point of the Raiders offense, catching 12 passes for 127 yards and three touchdowns.
He figures to be the centerpiece of the offense for the remainder of the season after the team traded No. 1 wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Tuesday.
Bowers ran 37 routes against Jacksonville and was targeted 13 times for a target rate of 35.1%, his highest in a game this season. Among the 40 tight ends who have run at least 100 routes in 2025, Bowers has the highest target rate at 27.2%.
With Bowers back in the mix this past week, the Raiders ran a 122 personnel on 35 of their 60 offensive plays, or 58.3%. In their previous three games without Bowers, they ran that two-tight end set on just 26 of 152 offensive plays, or 17.1%. They will likely continue to line up in a 122 set the majority of the time going forward following the trade of Meyers.
Against Jacksonville, while in a 122 offensive look, Bowers caught 10 passes for 103 yards and all three of his touchdowns.
On the season, he’s been targeted on one-third of all routes run out of a 122 personnel – tied for the fifth highest rate among players with at least at least 45 routes run.
Not much has given Denver’s defense problems this season, but covering opposing teams’ tight ends has been an issue.
Against the Texans last week, Dalton Schultz had six receptions for a team-high 77 yards. And in a 29-28 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2, rookie Tyler Warren had four receptions for a team-best 79 yards.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, no team is allowing more yards per catch to opposing tight ends than the Broncos at 13.0.
With Bowers’ skill set and the Broncos’ issues containing tight ends, look for Geno Smith to focus on throwing in Bowers’ direction whenever he’s on the field to give the Raiders the best chance at pulling off the upset. In two games against Denver last season, Bowers totaled 12 receptions for 135 yards with a touchdown.
Broncos’ Key to Victory vs. Raiders
Although the Broncos struggled to contain Schultz this past Sunday, they had another sterling defensive showing overall, limiting the Texans to a mere 3.7 yards per play, stopped 14 of 17 third-down attempts and kept Houston out of the end zone on all of three of its trips inside the red zone.
On the season, the Broncos rank first in opponent yards per play (4.45) and opponents’ third-down conversion rate (28.2%) while allowing the fewest percentage of red zone drives to be converted into touchdowns (34.8%).
It helped that the defense was going up against Davis Mills for much of the game after C.J. Stroud left just over a minute into the second quarter with a concussion, but overall it was another impressive performance by a unit fit to flummox the Raiders.
The Broncos sacked Stroud and Mills twice each, increasing their season total to a whopping 40 – 12 more than the next-closest team. They’re achieving a sack on 11.9% of passing plays. That would be the highest rate over a full season since the 2000 New Orleans Saints also registered an 11.9 sack percentage.
Edge rusher Nik Bonitto is the heart of the Broncos relentless defense and will be a handful for the Raiders offensive line.
His eight sacks are fourth in the NFL and one more than Jonathon Cooper for the team lead. Even when he’s not the one taking down the quarterback, he’s usually doing something to give a teammate a clear shot at the signal-caller. His adjusted-sack rate of 11.8 is more than triple the league average among edge rushers of 3.7 and easily clears all other edge rushers with at least 115 pass rushes.
With Bowers back on the field last week, the Raiders dropped back on 60.0% of their pass concepts after dropping back on 46.4% of pass plays in the three games he missed. Against the Jags, they achieved a successful play rate of 55.6% on their drop backs, as well as 8.2 yards per play.
The Broncos, however, are not the Jaguars, and are equipped to defend against this passing attack.
When QBs drop back, Denver ranks first in successful play rate at 29.0% and first in opponent yards per pass at 4.8, while ranking third in pressure rate at 71.0.
Denver’s defense has been carrying the team through the first half of the season while Bo Nix and the offense have looked uneven. If the Broncos can find a way to limit Brock Bowers’ production, they should push their win streak to seven games for the first time since opening the 2015 season 7-0.
Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has crunched all the numbers and run the pregame simulations to determine Denver has the edge with a probability of winning at 78.1%.
The Broncos, who won both meetings with the Raiders last season after losing the previous eight matchups, are 4-0 at home this year and have won nine straight in Denver dating to last season.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have lost both of their games against AFC West foes this season, and have dropped eight straight against their own division. Their last division win came in a 27-14 home win over the Broncos in Week 18 of the 2023 season.
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The post Raiders vs. Broncos Predictions: Will Denver’s Surge Continue? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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