Can Penn State Shock No. 2 Indiana? A Clash That Could Redefine the Season

After a spell of upheaval, the Nittany Lions are set to step back onto the sod of Beaver Stadium, a landscape that’s changed more than just the turf since James Franklin’s exit. With a lean 3-5 record shadowing their every move and a snowballing Big Ten drought at 0-5, Penn State is staring down a colossal challenge. Sitting sugar-sweet at 9-0 and undefeated in conference play, Indiana’s Hoosiers bring a tidal wave of momentum into State College, boasting a dynamic offense led by a potential Heisman winner and a defense that’s tight as a drum. Saturday’s noon kickoff promises more than just another game; it’s a clash of contrasting fortunes and fresh beginnings under the watchful eyes of FOX’s Gus Johnson and crew. Weather-wise, the drizzle is expected to clear, but off-field streaks and storylines promise some real heat on the field. As Penn State tries to find its footing under interim Terry Smith, and Indiana rides high with Curt Cignetti at the helm, the stakes couldn’t be clearer. Ready for all the twists and turns?
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The Nittany Lions return to Beaver Stadium for the first time since the firing of James Franklin.

Penn State (3-5, 0-5) vs. Indiana (9-0, 6-0)

Kickoff: Noon, Beaver Stadium, State College, PA

The Betting Line: Penn State +14.5

TV: FOX, Noon, Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Joel Klatt (analyst), Jenny Taft (sideline)

Weather: Highs in the upper-50s with rain expected overnight, but expected to stop by the morning.

Terry Smith (Interim):

PENN STATE RECORD: 0-2, 1st Year

OVERALL RECORD: 0-2, 1st Year

VS. INDIANA: 0-0

Curt Cignetti:

INDIANA RECORD: 20-2, 2nd Year

OVERALL RECORD: 139-37, 15th Season

VS. PENN STATE: 0-0

(Fun facts is currently on hiatus, and will return once Penn State Football shows any sign of being fun again)

INDIANA OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE

The Nittany Lions defense will be challenged yet again by an offense that is eerily similar to the Buckeyes unit that put up 38 points last week. The Hoosiers offense is led by a top Heisman candidate at quarterback, two prolific receivers with bright NFL futures, and a rotation of talented running backs.

Fernando Mendoza has elevated Indiana’s offense after spending two years as Cal’s quarterback. The likely Heisman finalist is completing 72.3% of passes with 24 touchdowns to four interceptions. He has thrown all four interceptions in the last five games after not getting picked off during the first four games of the season. Mendoza can also hurt a defense with his legs, which is something that should be a factor on Saturday considering the Nittany Lions struggles to maintain running quarterbacks.

Indiana also has the two of the best receivers in the Big Ten outside of Ohio State’s dynamic duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Omar Cooper Jr. leads the team with 46 catches for 669 yards and eight touchdowns, while Elijah Sarratt is right behind with 45 receptions for 609 yards and a team-leading 10 touchdown grabs. Mendoza often looks to Sarratt in key moments, with his best performances coming against Oregon, Illinois and Iowa. Sarratt has been playing through injuries during the past two weeks, and is considered “day to day.”

The Hoosiers ground game has been set up nicely by a vertical passing attack that keeps defenders out of the box. Sixth-year senior Kaelon Black is enjoying his best season while averaging 6.4 yards per carry, with former Terp Roman Hemby contributing 601 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Hemby is often seen on passing downs and is another threat out of the backfield.

Penn State’s secondary failed to keep Ohio State’s talented receiving corps in front of them last week – even with two or three defenders in coverage. If that problem persists, it will be a very long afternoon on Saturday for the Nittany Lions defense.

PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. INDIANA DEFENSE

Indiana may not be the top-ranked defense in the nation like the Buckeyes, but are close to the top in about every statistical category. This unit is third nationally by allowing just 10.78 points per game, seventh in total defense that allows 248.3 yards per game, and fourth in rushing defense yielding just 80 yards per game on the ground.

The overall infusion of talent on defense is what transformed Indiana to a nice story in 2024 to a legit contender in 2025. They perform well at all three levels, and have made exceptional strides to a defensive line that has been given opponents fits all season long. Indiana also generates pressure from all over the field in a way that confuses offensive lines and creates breakdowns in protection. They have seven players with at least 2.5 sacks on the season.

Safety Louis Moore not only leads the team in tackles, but also leads the nation with five interceptions. Cornerback Amare Ferrell is also a major contributor to the defense that has a knack for creating turnovers, with three interceptions and a team-leading six pas breakups. The Hoosiers also havea terrific linebacker group with Rolijah Hardy, Aiden Fisher, and Isiah Jones, who are all very quick to the hole and don’t miss many tackles. Jones is especially dangerous off the edge, and leads the team with five sacks.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Indiana kicker Nico Radicic hasn’t missed this season on 10 field goal attempts and 55 extra points. His career-long is 46 yards. Punter Mitch McCarthy is averaging 40 yards per punt in his first season at Indiana after three years as the starting punter for UCF.

PREDICTION

Indiana-45, Penn State-17

Penn State struggled to stop the vertical passing game against the Buckeyes. Unfortunately, they will be facing a carbon copy of that offense that loves to go deep. Don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers exploit this area to build an early lead and keep their foot on the gas – something Curt Cignetti has done since taking over and proving that Indiana is a far cry from the program that spent decades in the Big Ten basement.

Ethan Grunkemeyer showed progress against an incredible Ohio State defense and put together some of the best drives we’ve seen from Penn State all season. However, it won’t be enough to keep pace with the Hoosiers explosive offense.