Week 10 NFL Showdowns: Shocking Picks and Underdog Insights That Could Upend the Season

Ever wonder how much the fate of an NFL game really hinges on the numbers? Thanks to the relentless calculations of the Opta supercomputer, we’re diving deep into the 2025 NFL season, unveiling win probabilities that strip away fan biases and gut feelings. It’s like having a crystal ball — but instead of magic, it’s cold, hard data guiding us through the unpredictability of football’s fiercest battles. As Week 10 approaches, powerhouse teams like the Patriots, Bills, and Broncos are stacking the odds in their favor in the AFC, while the Packers and Eagles lead the charge in the NFC. But remember, while the supercomputer crunches the stats, the thrill lies in the game’s chaos—those last-minute plays, injuries, and, yes, the occasional tie that keep us all on our toes. Ready to see who’s favored this week and why? Let’s unpack the numbers that might just redefine how you watch the game. LEARN MORE

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.

The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Heading into Week 10, the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are the most likely to win the NFC, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions.

For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.

Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Thursday morning). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

Thursday Night Football Prediction

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) at Denver Broncos (7-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 78.1%
Spread: Broncos -8.5 (Win Probability/Spread as of Thursday morning)
All-Time Meetings (Regular Season): Raiders 72-55-2
Last Meeting: Broncos 29, Raiders 19 (Nov. 24, 2024)

Quick Hit: The Broncos are 4-0 this season when tied/trailing at the end of the third quarter. That is tied with the 2007 Patriots for the most such wins without a loss in a single season since 1925.

Sunday’s Predictions

Atlanta Falcons (3-5) at Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Colts 71.1%
Spread: Colts -6.5
All-Time Meetings: Colts 15-3
Last Meeting: Falcons 29, Colts 10 (Dec. 24, 2023)

Quick Hit: The Colts (1-1) and Falcons (2-2) both hold a .500 record in international games heading into their matchup in Berlin, Germany. This is the first ever regular-season NFL game being held in Germany’s capital city.

New Orleans Saints (1-8) at Carolina Panthers (5-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Panthers 67.3%
Spread: Panthers -5.5
All-Time Meetings: Saints 31-29
Last Meeting: Panthers 23, Saints 22 (Nov. 3, 2024)

Quick Hit: Rico Dowdle has rushed for 519 yards through his first three starts this season. He’s the only player in the last 30 years to rush for 500+ yards in his first three starts of a season.
The next most in that span is 496 yards by Jamal Lewis in 2003.

New York Giants (2-7) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 64.6%
Spread: Bears -4.5
All-Time Meetings: Bears 31-22-2
Last Meeting: Giants 20, Bears 12 (Dec. 24, 2023)

Quick Hit: The Giants have not beaten the Bears in Chicago since Week 13, 2007. New York has lost four straight road games against the Bears since that contest, its longest active road losing
streak versus any non-division opponent.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) at Houston Texans (3-5)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 51.9%
Spread: Jaguars -1.5
All-Time Meetings: Texans 31-16
Last Meeting: Jaguars 17, Texans 10 (Sept. 21, 2025)

Quick Hit: Josh Hines-Allen reached 55 career sacks in his last game, and is now tied with Tony Brackens for the most sacks in Jacksonville team history.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 71.4%
Spread: Bills -9.5
All-Time Meetings: Dolphins 61-57-1
Last Meeting: Bills 31, Dolphins 21 (Sept. 18, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Bills have won seven straight games against the Dolphins (including postseason), tied for their longest win streak against Miami in series history (seven straight from 2018-2021). Buffalo is averaging 34.2 points per game against Miami over this streak.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 59.9%
Spread: Ravens -4.5
All-Time Meetings: Ravens 4-3
Last Meeting: Ravens 34, Vikings 31 (Nov. 7, 2021)

Quick Hit: Lamar Jackson threw four touchdown passes in his return from injury last Thursday, his 13th career game with at least four passing touchdowns. All other QBs in Ravens’ franchise history have combined for eight games with four or more pass TDs.

Cleveland Browns (2-6) at New York Jets (1-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Browns 54.9%
Spread: Browns -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Browns 15-14
Last Meeting: Browns 37, Jets 20 (Dec. 28, 2023)

Quick Hit: Justin Fields has completed 107 passes this season without throwing an interception, the longest streak by any Jets QB to begin a season over the last 30 years.

New England Patriots (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 58.3%
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Patriots 7-3
Last Meeting: Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17 (Oct. 3, 2021)

Quick Hit: Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles won their 25th game together in Week 8 against the Saints, surpassing Tom Brady and Bruce Arians’ 24 wins during their time in Tampa Bay. Only two Buccaneers starting quarterback and head coach combos have more wins than Mayfield and Bowles: Doug Williams and John McKay (33), and Trent Dilfer and Tony Dungy (31).

Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 70.6%
Spread: Seahawks -6.5
All-Time Meetings: Seahawks 30-22-1
Last Meeting: Seahawks 23-20 (Sept. 25, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Seahawks have a plus-72 point differential in the first half this season, the highest in the NFL. The Cardinals have a plus-38 point differential in the first half this season, tied with the Steelers for the fourth highest in the NFL.

Los Angeles Rams (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 59.8%
Spread: Rams -4.5
All-Time Meetings: 49ers 78-70-3
Last Meeting: 49ers 26, Rams 23 (Oct. 2, 2025)

Quick Hit: The 49ers won their first meeting of the season against the Rams and can sweep the
season series for the first time since they did so in four straight seasons from 2019-22.

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Washington Commanders (3-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 69.5%
Spread: Lions -8.5
All-Time Meetings: Commanders 28-16
Last Meeting: Lions 36, Commanders 27 (Sept. 18, 2022)

Quick Hit: Jared Goff has thrown for seven touchdowns in the fourth quarter this season, tied for the most with Bo Nix and Aaron Rodgers. Goff is the only one of the three without an
interception in the fourth quarter.

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 61.1%
Spread: Chargers -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Steelers 24-9
Last Meeting: Steelers 20, Chargers 10 (Sept. 22, 2024)

Quick Hit: The Steelers have the highest conversion rate on third-and-short in the league, having converted 73.1% of their attempts. The Chargers are third in the league at 71.1%, trailing
only the Steelers and Saints at 73.0%.

Monday Night Football Prediction

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 57.7%
Spread: Packers -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Packers 27-17
Last Meeting: Eagles 34, Packers 29 (Sept. 9, 2024)

Quick Hit: The Eagles have turned the ball over just three times, matching five other teams for the fewest through eight games of a season in the last 75 years.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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