Why the Jaguars’ Field Goal Showdown Could Defy All Expectations Tonight

Ever notice how some Sundays just seem to toy with your gut like a cat with a mouse? Last week was a wild rollercoaster of upsets that might’ve sent any Survivor pool hopeful packing—yours truly included. Two weeks ago? A snoozefest of favorites walking all over the place. This weekend, though, it feels like we’re on the knife’s edge again. Are the Jaguars finally going to shake off their recent close calls and outpace the Texans? With Jacksonville’s offense leaving points on the table and Houston’s defense standing tall despite offensive woes (and the looming question mark over CJ Stroud), the landscape is anything but clear. So, who’s got the grit to snatch this one? If you ask me, the Jaguars are primed to claw their way back into the win column—assuming their defense can outfox Houston’s sputtering attack. Game on, right? LEARN MORE

Jaguars vs. Texans, 1:00 ET

Last weekend we had a lot of upsets. Some very crazy games would’ve probably eliminated me if I was still alive in a Survivor pool. Two weeks ago it was the exact opposite, there were almost no losses by favorites (except of course one of the ones that I bet). So two weeks ago, the favorites all win and we see games decided by two scores or more. This past week, the underdogs all win, and most games are close in score. What do we get this weekend? Only time will tell, but I’m looking for some sort of win here which has been hard for me to find on Sunday’s lately. I think I’ve found one here as the Jaguars take on the Texans.

The Jaguars do have a winning record, coming into this game with a 5-3 record, but they arguably could’ve lost each of the past four games. It was a fluke that they beat the Chiefs at home. I’m not trying to take away a win from them; it was impressive enough for them to get the victory, but there were some very uncharacteristic moments from the Chiefs that allowed the Jaguars to win the game. They then hosted both the Seahawks and Rams, losing both of the games. Last week, they played the Raiders and needed overtime in order to get a victory. The offense looked better in that game than they have in a lot of the recent games, but they were playing against a bad Las Vegas defense. The defense got the stop needed to win the game and got it as the Raiders went for a 2-pt conversion. This week, the Jaguars face the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. Jacksonville has a decent offense, but I think they leave too many points on the board, going for field goals instead of converting drives into touchdowns. They are averaging just 22 points per game, but are in the top half or better of the league in passing and rushing yards.

The Texans are on the struggle bus this season with a 3-5 record. Their defense deserves better than this, but when you have virtually no offensive line, it is very difficult to get anything going on offense. I mentioned the success of their defense: They are first in points allowed, sixth in rushing yards allowed, and fourth in passing yards allowed. Opponents aren’t running up scores on them. They’ve only allowed 20 points or more twice this season. You should be over .500 if that’s how good your defense is. Their offense is averaging 21 points per game, but that is misleading and inflated because they put 44 on the Ravens before Baltimore figured out their defense. They’ve scored fewer than 20 points in each of their five losses. In the wins, they have 96 points combined. They only average about 109 rushing yards per game, and 212 passing yards. Those numbers are all bottom half of the league or worse.

I really don’t like the idea of taking Jacksonville given how bad they’ve looked lately, but how can you back Houston? The Jaguars defense is at least decent enough to stop the bad Houston offense. If CJ Stroud is out, and he is being evaluated for a concussion, I would think that the Texans have to take a step back. This total is already really low, and one interception returned for a touchdown could bust your under quickly. I think Jacksonville is the right side in this one, though. If there is a team that will get a game–winning drive, I’m backing the Jaguars over the Texans, and that’s probably what this game comes down to.

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