Why Betting Against Washington Could Be the Hidden Key to NFL Week 11 Success

Usually, I wait until later in the week to place my NFL bets—letting those spreads marinate and injury reports settle—but this week, the Miami Dolphins have me throwing caution to the wind. Why the rush? Well, Miami opened at -2.5 and is already creeping up to -3, possibly hitting -3.5 soon. It’s like watching the Commanders packing their bags for a trip to Madrid, only to realize they forgot the quarterback and top receiver at home. Seriously, how often do you see a team jet across the Atlantic in the middle of a lost season, missing key players, while their defense is basically waving a white flag? Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa looks poised to channel some Hawaiian Dan Marino magic under that slick retractable roof, and if De’Von Achane keeps breaking ankles like last week, Miami might just cruise through. So, if you’re thinking about wagering, isn’t it better to jump on the Dolphins before the line tells you what you already know?

LEARN MORE.

Usually, I bet NFL games at the end of the week after seeing how the market shapes the spreads and injury reports. However, I recommend betting the Miami Dolphins (3-7) over the Washington Commanders (3-7) ASAP. Miami opened as -2.5 favorites and has been bet up to -3. I could see this getting to “Dolphins -3.5” because the Commanders are cooked.

Washington is in the middle of a lost season and has to travel to Madrid, Spain, on Sunday to play Miami in the final NFL International Series game of the season. The Commanders will be without franchise QB Jayden Daniels and will most likely be without No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin this week. Without Jayden and McLaurin, they are the second-worst team in the NFL, behind the Tennessee Titans.

Meanwhile, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa looks like Hawaiian Dan Marino in good playing conditions. Santiago Bernabéu, the host stadium of Commanders-Dolphins, has a retractable roof, and Madrid’s weather forecast Sunday is projecting temperatures in the mid-to-high 50s with a decent chance of rain.

Also, Tua needs a good ground game, especially without All-Pro WR Tyreek Hill, to pull the opponent’s safeties into the box, which opens up the deep ball. Miami is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this season when it rushes for 100+ yards. Washington has allowed 100+ rushing yards eight times and is 3-5 ATS in those games.

Furthermore, Dolphins RB De’Von Achane ran for 174 yards and two touchdowns in their 30-13 win vs. the Buffalo Bills last week. Achane is one of the fastest players in the league, and the Commanders have one of the oldest defenses, and they are missing their best interior defensive lineman, Daron Payne, who is suspended for Week 11.

Commanders head coach Dan Quinn is taking over defensive play-calling duties, which is another sign that Washington’s defense is a dumpster fire. While Quinn is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, they don’t have any game-wreckers on that side of the ball. A coach can call good plays and all, but he’s not sacking the quarterback or forcing turnovers.

Finally, it’s a bad time for an overseas trip for a banged-up Commanders team that is reassigning play-calling duties and dealing with additional media obligations that come with NFL International games while on a five-game losing skid (0-5 ATS).

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.