Patriots Face Crucial AFC East Showdown: Can They Silence the Jets’ Resurgence?

It’s no secret that whispers about the New England Patriots cruising on an easy schedule have been swirling all season long. Well, if you thought those murmurs would quiet down this week, think again – because Thursday night’s clash against the New York Jets is far from the kind of challenge that’ll silence the skeptics. Sitting comfortably at 8-2, the Patriots head into this matchup as heavy favorites against a struggling Jets squad that’s limping along at 2-7. Sure, the Pats have faced what some call the softest slate in the NFL this year, according to DVOA metrics, but let’s not forget those gritty road victories over the Bills and Buccaneers that proved they can handle pressure when it counts. Meanwhile, the Jets, fresh off trading away key defensive talents and still searching for offensive consistency, are hardly a formidable obstacle.

It’s fascinating to see how quickly Mike Vrabel has transformed this squad, and with Drake Maye cementing himself as a serious MVP contender in year two, the Patriots’ blend of savvy drafting and strategic acquisitions has ignited a seven-game winning streak. Critics can argue about schedule difficulty all they want, but reality bites—the Patriots also have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league, making every expected win, including this game, critical for their division hopes. So who really needs this win more? Stick around as we unpack that—and so much more.

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The complaints about the New England Patriots playing a soft schedule won’t lessen this week when critics see who the Patriots face on Thursday night.

The Patriots are 8-2 and are big favorites to beat the 2-7 New York Jets. The Patriots have played the easiest schedule in the NFL this season via DVOA, though they have passed two huge road tests by beating the Bills and Buccaneers.

Realistically, this week shouldn’t be a big test. The Jets have won two in a row after an 0-7 start, but also recently traded away defensive stars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner before the deadline. Justin Fields has 54 or fewer passing yards in four of his eight starts this season. The Jets are a bad football team, but at least they aren’t winless anymore.

The Patriots have come along fast in Mike Vrabel’s first season as head coach. Drake Maye is a legit MVP candidate in his second season. An infusion of talent through free agency and the draft has paid off. They have won seven in a row. And for those who continue to assume it’s the product of a soft schedule, consider this: The Patriots have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, via DVOA.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is an MVP candidate in his second season. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Who needs it more?

Jets fans have probably moved onto hoping the team loses to improve its draft position and maybe select a quarterback of the future, though Aaron Glenn probably doesn’t agree with that assessment. Either way, it’s pretty obvious that the Patriots need the win more. The Buffalo Bills aren’t intimidating this season but they’re still lingering in the AFC East. The Patriots can probably win the division simply by winning all the games they should win that remain on the schedule, including this one.

Key player: Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson

Henderson, a second-round rookie, had a good preseason but then a slow start to the season. He made some rookie mistakes and found playing time hard to come by. But with Rhamondre Stevenson out with injury, Henderson has taken advantage of his opportunity. Last week the explosive rookie had 147 rushing yards on 14 carries, and his two long touchdown runs were a big difference in a win over Tampa Bay. Stevenson will miss Thursday’s game, which gives Henderson yet another chance to solidify a large role over the remainder of the season.

Betting market watch, by Ben Fawkes

On paper, this is a complete mismatch between a 2-7 Jets team and an 8-2 (!) Patriots team on a seven-game winning streak. We’ve seen the same thing in the betting market, with this game opening New England -10.5 and steaming as high as 13.5 at some books before there was buyback on the Jets. With Garrett Wilson out for New York, this seems like a blowout waiting to happen — but crazier things have happened on Thursday Night Football.

Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.

Although the Patriots are 13-point favorites over the Jets on Thursday night, we know sometimes these divisional games can be surprisingly competitive. Here are three fantasy angles to watch for as the teams meet in Foxboro.

Can TreVeyon Henderson keep the momentum going? Henderson posted a solid RB20 showing two weeks back, then exploded for an RB4 finish in Tampa Bay last week, scoring on two long touchdown runs. The Jets rushing defense has adequate grades, though it obviously traded star lineman Quinnen Willams two weeks ago.

Will Breece Hall find any running room? The Patriots haven’t allowed a running back past 53 yards rushing all year, and only five backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against New England. Hall averages a solid 4.8 yards per carry and the New York offense is down top receiver Garrett Wilson.

What’s the second pitch in the New England passing game? Stefon Diggs continues to spread his wings and is the first read for MVP candidate Drake Maye, but there’s room for more against a struggling New York pass defense. With Kayshon Boutte out another week, perhaps Mack Hollins or Kyle Williams will come through as a Week 11 sleeper.

Check out more of Scott’s work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.