Fantasy Football Week 11: Surprising Start/Sit Picks That Could Make or Break Your Season

As the 2025 NFL season barrels toward its climax, fantasy football enthusiasts face the perennial dilemma: who should start and who should sit in Week 11? Last week, we spotlighted Jonathan Taylor—a decision rewarded handsomely as he dashed into the end zone three times, including a stunning overtime winner in Berlin, a feat the league hasn’t seen in two decades. Makes you wonder—when has data ever been so thrilling? This time around, we’re peeling back the layers beyond the expert consensus, diving deep into the numbers that might just make you rethink your fantasy lineup. Could the under-the-radar Brock Purdy outplay his doubters? Will trusty veterans keep their magic alive, or is it time to bench some familiar names? Grab your coffee, because whether you’re playing safe or gambling bold, our data-driven start and sit guide promises a fresh, sometimes contrarian take that might just be the edge you need.

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In our 2025 NFL Week 11 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

We highlighted Jonathan Taylor in our intro last week.

Then he went out and scored three more touchdowns, including the game-winning overtime touchdown in Berlin against the Atlanta Falcons. The NFL hasn’t had a player reach 20 touchdowns in a season in two decades. He’s had three touchdowns in five of his last eight games. This is unprecedented stuff.

His Indianapolis Colts are 8-2 and, along with the New England Patriots, are the story of the NFL season. Let’s jump in.

Start ‘Em in Week 11: The Yays

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Brock Purdy, QB (SF) vs ARI (ECR: 27, Our Rank: QB4, Projected Points: 18.74)

Obviously, this discrepancy between the industry and our model boils down to Purdy’s health and whether or not he actually straps on the helmet for the first time since Week 4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

There are two things in his favor this week. One? He’s good! In two games this season, including the season opener against the daunting Seattle Seahawks defense, Purdy has thrown for at least 275 yards and two touchdowns. In both games, Purdy produced at least 18.8 fantasy points, a number right in line with his career average.

San Francisco 49ers Week 11 Fantasy Football Projections — Robbie Dunne / Data Journalist

Two? Purdy and the 49ers offense have dominated the Arizona Cardinals defense. In four career starts against Arizona, the Niners have averaged 35.3 points per game, and Purdy has 10 total touchdowns against only two interceptions. Oh, and the Cardinals just allowed 38 first-half points to the Seahawks last week.

If you have Purdy, you can start him with confidence.

Quinshon Judkins, RB (CLE) vs BAL (ECR: 19, Our Rank: RB12, Projected Points: 15.15)

Judkins is fifth in the NFL in rushes per game. The four running backs above him? Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey. It’s great company to be keeping, especially as a rookie.

On the other side of the field, as the defense has been getting healthier, the Baltimore Ravens have started to look like themselves again. One little flaw? The starting running back facing the Ravens has reached the end zone in four of their last five games. The Browns aren’t likely to score many (any?) touchdowns this game, but if they do, chances are it’ll be Judkins.

In a week in which the Browns’ only chance to win is to keep the game low scoring and not turn the ball over, Judkins is second in the NFL in projected rushing attempts (20.7) behind only Josh Jacobs. His volume warrants a place in your fantasy lineups, despite the tough matchup.

George Pickens, WR (DAL) vs LV (ECR: 14, Our Rank: WR5, Projected Points: 16.98)

Through 10 weeks, Pickens is still the WR5 on the season. He is fifth in receiving yards per game, fourth in receptions of 25+ yards, and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns.

He has been a great fit with Dak Prescott in Dallas, and there’s no reason for the good times to slow down this week for the Cowboys. Facing a Las Vegas Raiders defense that has allowed the second most red-zone plays and the most touchdowns (17) on goal-to-go drives, Pickens is a good bet to add to his touchdown tally.

George Pickens Burn Yards — Robbie Dunne / Data Journalist

In fact, he is the most likely receiver to score a touchdown this week according to our model. Pickens is even above teammate CeeDee Lamb in our rankings. He is a must-start.

Dalton Schultz, TE (HOU) vs TEN (ECR: 13, Our Rank: TE9, Projected Points: 9.97)

Only 14 times all season has a tight end had at least 11 targets in a single game. Six of those games are from either Trey McBride or Jake Ferguson, two of the top three tight ends in PPR points so far this season.

Another instance happened last week, in the Houston Texans miraculous comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Nico Collins had 15 targets. Schultz had 11. In fact, Collins leads the Texans with 72 targets this season. Schultz has 59. No other Texan has more than 30. He is clearly the second option in the passing game.

And while now is a good time to mention that it is Davis Mills who will be starting once again, not only was he the highest scoring QB in all of fantasy last week, but he and Schultz were actually college teammates at Stanford for one season. It’s tough to find usable tight ends, and if you need a spot starter for Tyler Warren or Juwan Johnson, you could do worse than starting Schultz.

Sit ‘Em in Week 11: The Nays

Baker Mayfield, QB (TB) vs BUF (ECR: 11, Our Rank: QB23, Projected Points: 12.63)

Baker was a Nay last week against the Patriots. The thinking was he wasn’t running the ball and his receiving core was banged up. It took a garbage-time touchdown drive that ended with 33 seconds in the fourth quarter for Mayfield to jump from QB16 all the way up to the top 10.

Sound logic, and we’re back at it again, with mostly the same exact reasoning. Do you want to take a stab at how many rushes Mayfield has had over his last three games? If your answer was as many rushes as you and me, well, you’d be correct.

Meanwhile, despite getting hammered in the most shocking result of Week 10, the Buffalo Bills were mostly gashed on the ground by De’Von Achane and the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have only allowed three touchdown passes in their last five games, and in the three games that Mayfield has scored over 20 points, he had three touchdown passes in two of them and 379 passing yards (and two passing touchdowns) in the other.

That is unlikely to happen against this Bills this week. He is outside our model’s top 20 quarterbacks and below QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Flacco.

Kyren Williams, RB (LAR) vs SEA (ECR: 14, Our Rank: RB23, Projected Points: 12.62)

What a game! The Los Angeles Rams and Seahawks have the two best records in the NFC (tied with the Philadelphia Eagles), the two best point differentials in the conference, and both enter on four-game winning streaks.

Matthew Stafford leads the NFL by a country mile in passing touchdowns (25), and he has only thrown two interceptions. That, especially this week, is good for the Rams because if the Seahawks defense is gettable, it’s through the air. The Seahawks are third in yards allowed per rush and per game. That, however, is not good for Kyren Williams.

NFL Week 11 Rush Defenses — Robbie Dunne / Data Journalist

Williams has only one game with more than four targets, and he’s only had seven in his last four games. In nine games this year, Williams has multiple touchdowns in two. In his other seven games, he is averaging 13.7 PPR points per game. Ask yourself, is he likely to score two touchdowns this week against the Seahawks? You’re probably starting him regardless, but without being a heavy factor in the receiving game, Williams is a risky play this week.

Rome Odunze, WR (CHI) vs MIN (ECR: 19, Our Rank: WR29, Projected Points: 11.20)

Sometimes, it’s a good thing when your dad complains publicly about your involvement in the offense. Odunze, two weeks ago against the Cincinnati Bengals in a game in which the Chicago Bears scored 47 points no less, recorded only three targets and had no receptions. That’s right, a big ol’ goose egg.

Well, as luck would have it, the very first play of the Bears game last week was a pass to Rome. Maybe his dad can complain now about his son being on the Nays list. Because this week, against a Vikings defense that held Odunze to just 37 receiving yards back in Week 1, Odunze finds himself very much in the range of players who are worth consideration for starting in your Flex spot.

Chicago Bears Week 11 Fantasy Football Projections — Robbie Dunne / Data Journalist

The Vikings are top 10 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, fourth in forced three-and-outs, and only the Denver Broncos are harder to score touchdowns on once a team is inside the 30-yard line. Odunze, and most of the Bears offense, is an iffy proposition against this exotic Brian Flores-schemed Vikings defense.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Start/Sit: The Yays and Nays for Week 11 vs. Expert Consensus appeared first on Opta Analyst.