Unlocking Friday’s NBA Cup Secrets: The Ultimate Daily Double Nobody Saw Coming
Isn’t it fascinating how the 2025 NBA Cup manages to keep the excitement alive despite the dreaded load management saga? Friday’s slate offers some tempting showdowns—Miami vs. Chicago, Minnesota vs. Phoenix, Denver vs. Houston—yet here I am, sidestepping those marquee clashes and zooming in on the matchups where I truly see an edge. Take the Nets-Celtics back-to-back: Boston just took the first game by a solid margin, but there’s a curious Zig-Zag angle lurking—betting opposite to the previous result—that makes me think this rematch could defy expectations. With Brooklyn’s sharp offensive metrics clashing against Boston’s defensive quirks and both teams firing up the perimeter shots, it’s a recipe for unpredictability. And the Pelicans? Zion Williamson’s return might just tilt the scales in a game where shot quality and defensive lapses create a perfect storm. The betting landscape feels like a minefield right now—lines shifting, favorites looking shaky—but if there’s one thing I know, it’s when to fade the noise and trust my gut. Ready to dive deeper? LEARN MORE.
Load management aside, the 2025 NBA Cup has been entertaining thus far. There are a few intriguing matchups in the NBA Cup Friday, such as the Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns, and Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets. Of course, my dumba** isn’t betting any of those games; rather, I’m focusing on contests I think I have an edge in.
This is the second of a Nets-Celtics back-to-back, with Boston winning the first 113-99 Tuesday. That game fell 11 points short of the 223-point total but was trending Over for the first three quarters before they combined for 38 points in the fourth quarter. That said, we have the Zig-Zag angle, a profitable NBA postseason betting system where you bet the opposite of the previous game.
Furthermore, both teams have offensive edges. Brooklyn is seventh in offensive FT/FGA rate, and the Celtics are 30th in defensive FT/FGA rate. Boston is third in second-chance points per game (PPG), and the Nets are 26th in defensive rebounding rate. Brooklyn is third in 3-point attempt rate, and the Celtics are fourth, so a couple of hot-shooting quarters could push this total Over.
Also, Boston scores nearly 10 more PPG at home (119.0 vs. 109.1), and Brooklyn typically shoots a tick better on the road. The market’s sitting Celtics -15. My prediction before the odds posted was “Boston 124, Brooklyn 110”. I’m aligned with the market on spread, but I disagree on the total. Finally, since point differential is a tiebreaker in the NBA Cup, teams will keep trying to score late.
One of NOLA’s two wins this season was over Dallas, 101-99, last month. The Pelicans were missing their leading scorer, rebounder, and assist-man, Zion Williamson (21.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists). Miraculously, Zion is expected to play Friday, which is subject to change, obviously.
Because Williamson and rookie big Derik Queen attack the basket, New Orleans has the third-best shot quality in the NBA, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). The Mavs, on the other hand, settle for too many mid-range jumpers. Plus, Dallas is 26th in paint PPG allowed and 19th in defensive field goal percentage at the rim, according to CTG.
Lastly, this spread feels trappy. The Mavericks have a -6.3 net rating, while the Pelicans are at -13.3. Yet, the Mavs are just -4 favorites at home, and are getting roughly 80% of the betting action at the time of writing, per Pregame.com. Granted, the line is moving in Dallas’s direction, but the NBA regular-season betting market isn’t sharp, so I’m going to fade it.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.
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