Oregon Ducks’ Surprising Path to the Big Ten Championship: Can They Defy the Odds?

The Oregon Ducks started the 2025 season with high hopes, fresh off a Big Ten championship win in 2024. Expectations were sky-high as they aimed to secure back-to-back conference titles during their rookie years in the Big Ten. However, things took a sharp turn after they stumbled against the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 7 — a defeat that not only handed Oregon its first conference loss but also handed Indiana the crucial tiebreaker, dimming the Ducks’ chances of returning to the title game in Indianapolis for a second straight year. Meanwhile, the nation’s top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes had been steamrolling through their schedule, outscoring opponents decisively, and appeared poised to vanish any hope for Oregon… unless Michigan could intervene in the season finale. Should the Wolverines pull off another upset at the Big House, Oregon’s path remains open — but it’s far from a straightforward journey. Between injury woes and strategic positioning within the College Football Playoff, the Ducks face a delicate balance of risks and rewards as the postseason looms. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and every game counts. LEARN MORE

At the beginning of the 2025 season, the Oregon Ducks were amongst the inner circle favorites to win the Big Ten title. They’d won it in 2024, making this season a chance to repeat as conference champions in their first two seasons in the Big Ten.

But after Week 7’s loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, the Ducks‘ chances of appearing in Indianapolis for the title game for the second consecutive year were dampened significantly. Not only did Indiana now own the tiebreaker, but they handed the Ducks their first conference loss while remaining undefeated.

The other competitor in the title race was the Ohio State Buckeyes. As the No. 1 team in the country and having outscored their opponents 221-41 by Week 7 and with unranked teams dotting the next two months of their schedule, it didn’t appear likely that Ohio State would lose and open the door for Oregon. The only true test remaining for the Buckeyes was to come in the season finale against the Michigan Wolverines.

Even then, the Wolverines lost to the USC Trojans by 18 points in Week 7, falling to 4-2 on the season. But after rattling off five straight wins, Michigan is in position to give the Ducks a chance at appearing in the Big Ten title game.

All they have do is knock off the Buckeyes — something they’ve done for four straight years. Potentially adding to their chances, both of Ohio State’s star wide receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate missed this week’s game against Rutgers with injuries. While they’re not expected to be long-term ailments, it’s fair to question whether or not they’ll be available next week. The game will be played at the Big House in Michigan as well, a major home-field advantage considering nearly 100,000 fans will fill the stadium.

And if the Wolverines are to upset the No. 1 Buckeyes, which will be played at 9:00 a.m. PST, Oregon will have a chance to punch their ticket to the Big Ten title game against Indiana with a win later that day on the road against the Washington Huskies.

It seems like a positive scenario if it were to occur in the Ducks’ favor, right?

That would appear to be the case, yet there’s an argument to be made that it could be beneficial for Oregon not to make the trip to Indianapolis for several reasons.

First, after being seeded at No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and beating No. 15 USC, the Ducks are in a good position to move up to either the No. 6 or No. 5 seed without even making the conference title game. That would gift Oregon a home playoff game in the comforts of Autzen Stadium against what is likely to be either the Group of 6 or ACC representive — neither of which is expected to pose much of a threat.

Additionally, a theoretical second loss — especially to what would be the same team twice — could potentially hurt the Ducks’ resume in the eyes of the Playoff Committee, dropping them further down than if they’d simply not appeared in the game and remained with one loss.

Then, the final reason: injuries. This late in the season, every team is dealing with some sort of ailment to top contributors.

But Oregon has arguably been hit the most by the injury bug, with wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. as well as tight end Kenyon Sadiq and offensive tackle Alex Harkey all missing at least one game over the past month. Add in standout center Iapani Laloulu, who had to leave this week’s game with a lower leg injury and left tackle Isaiah World, who entered as questionable and didn’t see his normal snap count. Even wide receiver Evan Stewart, who’s missed the entire season with a torn patellar tendon, is a candidate to return to play soon.

Having to play just against Washington on Nov. 29 and having over 20 days before the first round of the CFP on either Dec. 19 or 20 would be extremely beneficial as far as getting healthy. But, there is the possibility that a win over Indiana in the title game gives them a first-round bye, allowing for roughly 20 days past that game to recover.

Surely head coach Dan Lanning‘s squad will take whatever card is dealt their way, whether Michigan beats Ohio State or not, but one thing is for sure: regardless of what happens at the Big House and barring a catastrophic loss to the Huskies, Oregon has achieved their goal of positioning themselves for a chance to go win a national championship come the postseason.

Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: How the Oregon Ducks can make the 2025 Big Ten title game