Christian McCaffrey Faces Former Team: Will He Engineer an Unforgettable Upset Against the 49ers?
Here we are, standing on the precipice of what could be a pivotal Monday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Carolina Panthers — two teams still very much alive in the NFC playoff race. It’s a classic tale with a twist: Christian McCaffrey, once the shining jewel of the Panthers, now armored in 49ers gear, is set to face off against his former team. Will McCaffrey’s talents tilt the scales in favor of San Francisco, or will the Panthers, one of the league’s most surprising surge stories, carve out a much-needed win? With playoff implications hanging in the balance and over 74% of simulations tipping the win toward the 49ers, this game promises a drama-rich Monday night under the brightest lights. So, what’s it gonna be? Can you feel the electricity in the air yet? LEARN MORE
The 49ers and Panthers are both alive in the NFC playoff picture. Which team will grab a crucial win on Monday Night Football?
49ers vs. Panthers: The Key Stats
- The 49ers are considered heavy favorites on Monday Night Football against the Panthers, with San Francisco winning 74.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, as of Friday.
- The 49ers lead the league in field position after kickoffs, starting their drives, on average, at their own 34.5-yard line. The Panthers are the best in the NFL at covering kickoffs, with their opponents’ drives starting at the 26.5-yard line on average.
- The Panthers’ defense allowed a league-high 179.8 rushing yards per game last year. So far this season, they are allowing 113.1 yards per game on the ground. That 66.7-yard improvement from one year to the next is the fourth largest since 2000.
It wasn’t long ago that Christian McCaffrey was the franchise cornerstone of the Carolina Panthers.
They drafted McCaffrey eighth overall in 2017 and in 2019, he had one of the best seasons ever for a running back, totaling 2,392 yards from scrimmage.
McCaffrey set the franchise single-game rushing record and broke the NFL’s single-season record for receptions by a running back.
After injuries derailed his 2020 and ‘21 campaigns, the Panthers started the 2022 season at 1-5 and decided to trade McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers have had the full McCaffrey experience since his acquisition, as he gained 2,023 scrimmage yards and scored 21 touchdowns in 2023 but was limited to four games last season due to Achilles issues.
McCaffrey has played all 11 games so far this season for a San Francisco team that has dealt with a lot of injuries on its road to a 7-4 start.
He will face the team that drafted him for the first time this week when the 49ers host the Panthers on Monday Night Football with both teams jockeying for playoff positioning.
The Panthers are one of the league’s most improved teams and already have more wins than during last season’s 5-12 campaign.
Last weekend’s overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons boosted Carolina to 6-5 this season, just a half-game back in the NFC South and right on the fringes of wild-card contention.
Will the Panthers leave Monday night with a nationally televised road win and renewed hopes of ending a seven-year playoff drought or will McCaffrey humble his former team and lead his 49ers to 8-4?
Panthers’ Key to Victory vs. 49ers
The Panthers have improved in almost every way imaginable, gradually making strides since going 2-15 in Bryce Young’s rookie year in 2023. He finished that season with a 73.7 passer rating and was sacked a whopping 62 times.
Young showed some signs of improvement late last season, and the Panthers won two of their last three games to finish 5-12.
While he is still limited, Young has improved again this year, his second under head coach Dave Canales.
One of the major factors that has helped Young progress has been the development of a steady running game, and Canales has been committed to staying balanced this season.
The Panthers dial up running plays over 60% of the time on 1st-and-10, leading the NFL.
The bread and butter of Carolina’s running game is the inside zone concept, which allows uncovered offensive linemen to give a soft double team before working up toward the linebackers.
While inside zone is a simple run scheme, it has been particularly useful for Rico Dowdle.
The Panthers opened the season with Chuba Hubbard as their primary running back, but Dowdle took over in Week 5 and broke the franchise record for scrimmage yards in a single game with 239 in his first start.
Dowdle is averaging 4.7 yards per carry on inside zone runs, above the league average of 4.1 and much better than Hubbard’s 3.4.
Carolina’s offense has been methodical this season, averaging a league-high 9.5 plays per scoring drive. But when the Panthers have generated big plays, they have come mostly from play-action passing.
True play action concepts, which begin with selling a run fake, have been kind to Young. The Panthers rank third with a 58.7% success rate on play-action passes, and their 21.7% explosive rate (gains of 20+ yards) in play action ranks fifth.
One downside to play-action passing is that quarterbacks often face pressure on these slower-developing plays. The 49ers’ defense, however, ranks 31st in the NFL with a 38.0% overall pressure rate.
If Dowdle can move the chains a few times on the ground, that could open up the Panthers’ play-action game, in which rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan has a 29.3% target rate and 83.3% burn rate.
49ers’ Key to Victory vs. Panthers
This season has been a roller coaster ride for the 49ers. They have dealt with a variety of injuries, including a toe ailment that has limited Brock Purdy to just three games.
San Francisco got steady play from backup Mac Jones in the meantime, but Purdy returned last week to throw three touchdowns in a 41-22 win over the Arizona Cardinals.
As strange as it is for a Kyle Shanahan-led team, the 49ers have struggled to run the ball this season, ranking 24th with a 35.2% rushing success rate.
Shanahan has compensated by scheming up one of the NFL’s best passing attacks, despite the injuries to Purdy and star tight end George Kittle.
San Francisco leads the league with a 48.3% passing success rate, but the answer might not be as simple as airing it out, given Carolina’s much improved defense.
Last season, the Panthers’ defense allowed a passer rating of 110.4 on attempts of more than 20 air yards, ranking 28th in the league. This year, they rank fourth with an opponent passer rating of 58.1 on deep passes.
The 49ers may be better served by using McCaffrey in the short and medium passing game. While McCaffrey is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, he has remained the focal point of San Francisco’s offense by being an exceptional receiver out of the backfield.
The 49ers have thrown 33.5% of their passes to running backs this season, easily the highest rate in the league and nearly double the average of 17.4%. Meanwhile, McCaffrey leads all running backs with 56 burns. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson is second with 37.
McCaffrey’s versatility could be key against a Carolina defense that is allowing 4.9 receptions per game to running backs, tied for the seventh most in the league.
San Francisco’s offense puts a tremendous amount of pressure on potential tacklers, ranking fourth with 1,323 yards after the catch.
The 49ers could keep this pressure on Carolina’s defense with screen passes.
San Francisco has a success rate of 50.0% on screen passes this season, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams (53.8%) and well above the league average of 31.8%. The 49ers also rank second by gaining 7.4 yards per screen play.
Screens could be valuable weapons against a Carolina defense that is much better overall but has an 8.6% explosive rate allowed on screens this year, nearly double the league average of 4.7%.
49ers vs. Panthers Prediction
Fans of the Panthers have endured some truly brutal teams over the last few years, and Carolina’s competence is one of the feel-good stories of 2025.
Young may never live up to his No. 1 overall draft status, but he has worked his way into becoming a feasible NFL starter, especially with a nice running game and improved defense.
However, the 49ers are finally starting to get healthy and need every win they can get in a division that features likely playoff teams in the Seattle Seahawks and the Rams.
San Francisco’s talent may be too much for Carolina under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, and 74.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations ended with a victory for the 49ers.
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The post 49ers vs. Panthers Prediction: Can Christian McCaffrey Help Take Down His Former Team? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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