Battle for Bragging Rights: Can Western Michigan Broncos Upset Eastern Michigan Eagles in Week 14 Showdown?

Tuesday night in Ypsilanti is shaping up to be quite the showdown at Rynearson Stadium, where the Western Michigan Broncos are just one win away from punching their ticket back to the MAC Championship Game for the first time since 2016. Sitting comfortably atop the MAC standings with a 7-4 overall and 6-1 conference mark, the Broncos have the momentum on their side. Meanwhile, the Eastern Michigan Eagles, sporting a 4-7 overall and 3-4 in the MAC, are out of bowl contention but hungry to spoil the party on senior day — and possibly shake up the Michigan MAC Trophy race. It’s a classic “do or die” for the Broncos, who, if victorious, not only continue their march toward the title but also clinch bragging rights in a heated in-state rivalry. So, gear up for an intense gridiron clash loaded with history, rivalry, and everything in between. LEARN MORE

Game notes

Time and date: Tuesday, November 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN2
Location: Rynearson Stadium — Ypsilanti, MI
Spread: Western Michigan (-7.5)
Over/under: 46.5
All-time series: Western Michigan leads, 36-22-2
Last meeting: Western Michigan 26, Eastern Michigan 18 — November 30, 2024
Current streak: Western Michigan, 2 (2023-24)

Setting the scene

It’s win and in. The Western Michigan Broncos (7-4, 6-1 MAC) sit atop the MAC standings, and all they need to do to clinch their first MAC Championship Game since 2016 is defeat Eastern Michigan (4-7, 3-4 MAC).

Eastern Michigan cannot clinch a bowl, but the Eagles can play the role of spoiler and send the seniors off with a dramatic senior day upset. Also at stake, the Michigan MAC Trophy belongs to Western Michigan if it wins this matchup, but Central Michigan retains it should the Eagles pull off the upset — as all three Michigan MAC schools would finish 1-1 against each other.

Western Michigan Broncos outlook

Western Michigan waited nine years for this opportunity. The Broncos shed off an 0-3 start to win seven of eight, and they’re in prime position for a MAC title game appearance, punching a ticket to Detroit in 12 of 16 possible scenarios.

The Broncos are rolling, and one reason for their recent success is the ground game. Western Michigan generated its highest rushing output since 2019 a week ago against Northern Illinois, becoming the first team in eight years to produce three 100-yard rushers in the same game — running backs Jalen Buckley and Devin Miles, as well as quarterback Broc Lowry.

Lowry, the team’s leading rusher, really unlocks this offense with his mobility. The redshirt sophomore rides a 6-game streak of producing at least 80 rushing yards, and his 12 rushing touchdowns rank second overall in the MAC and eighth in the FBS among QBs. Getting Buckley going is essential as well. The former 1,000-yard rusher’s last two performances were among his best of the year, and he will have a favorable matchup against the FBS’s second-worst run defense.

Western Michigan doesn’t need to pass much, and Lowry has only attempted 23 passes in the last two weeks combined. He only crossed 200 yards twice all season, but he doesn’t need to light up defenses like a Mike Leach air raid style quarterback. As long as Lowry takes care of the ball (only two interceptions in 216 attempts), the Broncos offense is in solid shape. When passing, Tailique Williams is the preferred option, comfortably leading the team with 35 receptions and 478 yards.

The Broncos’ specialty under Lance Taylor is the defense. First-year coordinator Chris O’Leary has the unit ranked 17th nationally in scoring defense and 13th in total defense, surrendering just 18.5 points and 288 yards per game. When Western Michigan holds opponents to 21 or under, it is 7-0, but the Broncos are 0-4 when allowing 23+ — with Illinois maxing out at 38 points on this defense.

Miami (OH) (26) and Central Michigan (21) are the only opponents to eclipse 17 points on the Broncos in the last eight games, and they are able to thrive defensively mainly due to a tenacious front. Western Michigan is one of 13 FBS teams averaging at least three sacks per game, and the Broncos can credit star defensive end Nadame Tucker for a bulk of that output. Tucker leads the MAC with 11 sacks and checks in at first in the entire FBS with 17.5 tackles for loss.

Pressure and coverage work hand in hand, and Western Michigan exhibits that philosophy exceptionally well. The Broncos’ pass defense is eighth in the FBS allowing 162 yards per game on a 58.2 completion rate. Seventh-year strong safety Tate Hallock is the star of the secondary with two picks and 47 tackles in another potential All-MAC season. And given all the talent up front, Western Michigan unsurprisingly lets up only 3.6 yards per carry, with linebackers James Camden and Sefa Saiapaia serving as the leading tacklers.

Eastern Michigan Eagles outlook

Eastern Michigan is in uncharted territory in the Chris Creighton era. Although 4-7 is a resounding success compared to the pre-Creighton days, the Eagles will miss out on bowl eligibility for the second-straight year and suffer their third-straight losing season.

Eastern Michigan did hit its stride — the only problem was it came too late in the season. The Eagles started 1-4, marred by stunning loss to an FCS program, but they’ve held their own in MAC play. Eastern Michigan rides a 2-game win streak heading into senior day vs. Western Michigan, and it played the top of the MAC respectably this season — never losing a conference matchup by more than 14 and playing Ohio within seven in late October.

The Eagles feature one of the stronger offenses in the MAC. Quarterback Noah Kim is the MAC’s leading passer at 2,490 yards, and the former Michigan State and Coastal Carolina starter has delivered 16 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions. With Kim in the pocket, Eastern Michigan has enjoyed a slew of successful wide receiver performances throughout the year — even after WR1 Terry Lockett Jr. went down in September.

True freshman Harold Mack stole the show back in October with a 179-yard, 2-touchdown explosion vs. Miami (OH). Then last outing at Ball State, senior Jamarien Wheeler enjoyed his best showing of his college career with 131 yards (more than half his career production) and a touchdown in an Eagle victory. There’s also Nick Devereaux, who leads the team in yards and touchdowns and is only three games removed from a 121-yard outing against Ohio.

Eastern Michigan also trots out the MAC’s third-leading rusher in Dontae McMillan, a longtime program staple who will be honored at senior day prior to kickoff. McMillan is closing on his first 1,000-yard season, needing 97 yards against the Broncos to reach that goal.

The Eagles’ offense averages 24.4 points per game and shines with the No. 1 red zone offense in the FBS. Through 11 weeks, Eastern Michigan is still perfect, notching points on all 32 red zone trips this year — 21 touchdowns and 11 field goals.

But defense is the reason Eastern Michigan is playing its final game in November instead of December or January. The Eagles field the nation’s second-worst run defense at 228 yards per game, which could bode very unwell against a high-powered, multifaceted Western Michigan ground attack. The Eagles are 117th in yards allowed per game and 103rd in points allowed, but they’ve been improving throughout the season.

Only one of Eastern Michigan’s last five points managed 30 points (Miami (OH)), and the Eagles are fresh off their best defensive showing of the year, stifling Ball State to nine points. Key playmakers on this defense include strong safety Bryce Llewellyn, who has 93 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and two interceptions as the most versatile player on the team. Cornerback Joshua Scott, another senior, will also be honored Saturday, wrapping up a long Eastern Michigan career with four career interceptions — including one in the prior game at Ball State.

Prediction

Western Michigan’s rushing offense holds a major advantage over the Eagles. With Broc Lowry designed runs leading the way, along with support from Jalen Buckley and Devin Miles, there should be no shortage of ground excellence Tuesday night at The Factory from the Broncos. Western Michigan can likely get away with under 15 passes for a seamless victory.

Eastern Michigan’s offense operates well against most MAC opponents, but scoring on Western Michigan is never an easy task. The passing game faces the most tenacious pass rush it has seen throughout MAC play, and rattling off 300 yards won’t be easy when Nadame Tucker is disrupting every play. Western Michigan emerges by double-digits and seals a spot in the MAC Championship Game, celebrating like it’s 2016.

Prediction: Western Michigan 28, Eastern Michigan 13