Red Sox’s Sonny Gray Trade: Game-Changer or Just the Opening Gambit?

When the 2025 Red Sox stumbled out of the wild-card gate, you might be forgiven for blaming a dry spell in their starting pitching. Yet, oddly enough, that wasn’t the real culprit. It was Boston’s batters hitting an epic chill, turning sizzling one moment and downright frozen the next, especially after their electric Game 1 win, courtesy of Garrett Crochet’s remarkable effort. Following that high, the offense seemed to snooze through the remainder of the postseason, managing to scrape together a solitary run across the final 15 innings. Sure, their starters didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory, with unexpected injuries and fresh faces thrown into the fire, but it was the offense’s inconsistent pulse that truly did them in. Recognizing the clear gap in toughness and depth, Red Sox leadership — spearheaded by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow — zeroed in on bolstering the rotation, famously emphasizing a need for reliable arms alongside their ace. Now, with the acquisition of Sonny Gray from St. Louis, Boston’s hopes hinge on whether this veteran can truly fill that vital second starter slot or if he’s just a stopgap on the mound. The trade, laced with intricacies like waiving no-trade clauses and contract rejiggering, also signals a hefty investment — money and prospects exchanged like chips on a high-stakes table. Gray’s resilience and performance history are encouraging, even if some lightning in his fastball has dimmed, but only the unfolding season will reveal if he’s the missing piece or another question mark for the Red Sox.
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In the end, a dearth of starting pitching did not technically sink the 2025 Red Sox.

The club’s crash-and-burn against the Yankees in the wild-card round was a product of a hot-and-cold offense going frigid at a most inopportune time. After a rousing Game 1 victory behind a legendary Garrett Crochet start, Boston’s hitters grabbed melatonin gummies and conked the heck out, managing to score a single run over the final 15 innings of their season.

But the starting pitchers in those contests didn’t exactly save the day, either.

An untimely 11th-hour injury to Lucas Giolito pushed Brayan Bello to start Game 2 and thrust rookie southpaw Connelly Early into an unexpected Game 3 assignment. Bello recorded just seven outs. Early pitched into the fourth but surrendered four runs along the way. Only a heroic showing from Boston’s bullpen kept things close.

Had the Sox somehow survived the Yankees, their pitching would have needed a miracle to overcome the eventual AL champion Blue Jays. Boston’s arms simply weren’t good enough.

Red Sox leadership, clearly, understood that reality.

The team’s top executive, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, didn’t pull punches during the GM meetings when asked about the team’s rotation plans. “Starting pitching,” he stated bluntly when team reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, inquired about the club’s offseason priorities. “And particularly someone we feel can start alongside or slot in behind Garrett and start a playoff game for us.”

The Red Sox have now checked that box — sort of, maybe, kind of. It entirely depends on your opinion of Sonny Gray.

On Tuesday, the veteran right-hander was traded from St. Louis to Boston in exchange for a pair of young arms, Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. To push the deal across the finish line, Gray had to waive his no-trade clause. And crucially, the Cardinals are sending $20 million to the Red Sox to cover a significant portion of his contract, which was reworked alongside the trade.

Gray’s original 2026 salary was set at $35 million, with a $5 million buy-out for a 2027 player option unlikely to be activated. That arrangement has since been altered; Gray will now be paid $31 million this season, with the buy-out rising to $10 million. In total, Gray earns himself an extra million for waiving his no-trade clause, and the Red Sox push some of the cash burden of his deal into the future.

The upshot, after all that messy math, is that employing Gray will cost Boston around $21 million next year.

That’s a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with Gray’s track record of durability. He has covered 531 innings since 2023, the 11th-highest total in baseball. During that span — the first year of which he spent in Minnesota before a free-agent deal took him to St. Louis — the 36-year-old has been a solidly above-average starter (3.63 ERA). And while his surface-level stats have declined steadily year over year, his under-the-hood numbers haven’t changed much.

Gray remains superb at two of pitching’s most crucial tasks: limiting walks and piling up strikeouts. Among pitchers with at least 30 starts in 2025, only Bryan Woo, Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal had better strikeout to walk rates. Gray also threw one of just four Madduxes this past season (a complete game on fewer than 100 pitches). Despite his age, he is far from washed.

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Still, there are a few yellow flags, namely, Gray’s dwindling fastball velocity. His two heaters — he throws a four-seamer and a sinker — averaged just 92 mph in 2025, putting him in the 16th percentile for fastball velocity. And so, unsurprisingly, Gray’s four-seamer was absolutely tagged by batters. The pitch’s lack of zip allowed hitters to pull it in the air quite often, leading to an ugly .585 opposing slugging percentage against his four-seamer.

One other notable outlier about Gray: He works away to right-handed hitters more often than almost every other right-handed hurler. In 2025, only Jacob deGrom threw a higher percentage of pitches (84.4%) on the outer half to righties than Gray (78.9%). That’s a sign of two things: 1) He doesn’t have sufficient fastball juice to pound hitters inside anymore, and 2) he’s leaning on his breaking stuff as a result.

That approach should mesh well with Boston’s offspeed-centric organizational philosophy. Expect Gray to lean even more on his curveball and sweeper in 2026, two pitches that graded out very well during his last season with St. Louis. If he can locate those offerings consistently and keep his juicy fastball out of danger, Gray should continue to perform like an impact starter.

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How much impact? Well, that’s the whole question.

If you think Gray is a no-doubt No. 2 starter whom the Sox can slide in behind Crochet, this trade is a massive win. If you think he’s more of a back-of-the-rotation innings sponge, then you probably think Breslow needs to add another frontline piece. In other words, Gray is the type of arm you’d trust to start a playoff game, but you’d certainly prefer that to be Game 3 or Game 4, not Game 2.

The Red Sox paid a significant price to find out which bucket Gray falls into. Fitts, acquired from the Yankees in the 2023 Alex Verdugo deal, struggled in 2025 but profiles like a decent leverage reliever or a back-of-the-rotation piece. Given he still has six years of control, that’s a valuable piece. Clarke, though, could be the real prize. The tight-end-shaped southpaw, drafted in the fifth round by Boston in 2024, has elite raw stuff and absolutely zero idea where it’s going. He walked almost a batter per inning in 2025 but didn’t surrender a single home run and posted eye-popping strikeout rates. Clarke also missed some time down the stretch due to an injury. It’s a high-risk arm with a cathedral ceiling, and in the small chance that everything clicks, Clarke has a chance to develop into an All-Star. He’s a nice get for a rebuilding Cardinals team.

There’s also the $21 million now outlaid to Gray. That’s a significant chunk for a Sox team that, in recent history, has fought to stay below the luxury tax. Boston would love to bring Alex Bregman back. If they don’t, another offensive acquisition feels likely. That all costs money, potentially precluding the Red Sox from making another big addition to the rotation.

None of that is Gray’s fault; he’s a helpful piece that should make Boston better. But as is so often the case, the outcome of this trade will depend on how the rest of the offseason shakes out.