NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Shockers: Who’s Poised to Explode and Who’s Set to Flop?

Thanksgiving and football — two things synonymous with tradition, turkey, and that relentless debate over who to start in fantasy football. Ever wonder why your expert picks sometimes seem to miss the mark right when you need them most? Well, in this 2025 NFL Week 13 fantasy guide, I’m handing over the reins to cold, hard data — the kind that often tells a different story than the usual pundit chatter. As the holiday games stretch from Thursday morning kickoff to Friday’s late show, juggling start-and-sit decisions gets trickier than carving a turkey without a minder. So, why gamble on your lineup based on hope when you can lean on projections that spotlight players flying under- or over-the-radar? Let’s sift through this week’s hidden gems and caution flags, so you can enter those crunch-time decisions with a little more swagger. Ready to find out who’s set to surprise and who might just fumble? Dive in and sharpen that roster. LEARN MORE.

In our 2025 NFL Week 13 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

There might not be a better sports-holiday pairing in the United States than Thanksgiving and football.

Three games stretch over the entire day, with at least one that is usually between two great teams. It’s also an unofficial signal that the home stretch of the season is upon us.

For fantasy managers, though, it can be a tricky week. With three Thursday games and one Friday game, it can be difficult to know if you should start your bench player early in the week or wait until Sunday for a player that is questionable.

So, this is a reminder that if you are picking up a potential replacement for a questionable player, make sure the pickup plays at the same time or later than the questionable one.

While we can’t go into the future and tell you if your wide receiver will be good to go on Sunday, we can help you which players are undervalued and overvalued this week. Let’s get to it.

The Week 13 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Rico Dowdle, RB (CAR) vs LAR (ECR: RB15, Our Rank: RB9, Projected Points: 16.5)

Here are Rico Dowdle’s touches over the past four games: 27, 21, 26, 10.

The Carolina Panthers lost the plot in Week 12. After falling behind against the San Francisco 49ers, they abandoned the run too early and limited Dowdle’s impact.

Opinions on Bryce Young may vary, but it’s obvious he plays better off a consistent ground game. Maybe the Panthers put too much stock into Young’s impressive performance in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons.

With how awful the offense looked last week, Dave Canales will likely emphasize getting Dowdle involved early and often. The Los Angeles Rams have a good defense, but it’s comparable in run-stopping ability to the Green Bay Packers defense Dowdle shredded a few weeks ago. Play the Panthers running back with confidence.

Zay Flowers, WR (BAL) vs CIN (ECR: WR21, Our Rank: WR12, Projected Points: 13.8)

Flowers has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the NFL. Not exactly good consistent though.

He’s had between 46 and 78 receiving yards in the each of the last eight weeks. That would be easier to stomach if he threw in some touchdowns, but Flowers hasn’t reached the end zone since the season opener.

But the good news is the Baltimore Ravens play the Cincinnati Bengals this week, and everyone is a touchdown scorer against the Bengals.

Cincinnati has allowed an NFL-high 26 passing touchdowns this season. Anyone and everyone has been scoring receiving touchdowns against the Bengals this year. Dyami Brown had one. Heck, even Caleb Williams had one.

Flowers has a good chance to break past his 78-yard ceiling of the past eight weeks and his best chance to score of the season. He’s a borderline WR1.

Christian Watson, WR (GB) vs DET (ECR: WR31, Our Rank: WR20, Projected Points: 13.0)

Trusting Packers receivers has been a fool’s errand over the last couple of years, but Watson is starting to emerge as their best weapon with Tucker Kraft out for the season.

Over the past two weeks, Watson leads the team with 12 targets. Romeo Doubs has 11 and nobody else on the team has more than six. And Watson’s produced better numbers with his targets, with more yards (95 to 76) and touchdowns (2 to 0) over that span.

Watson’s yardage may still be a bit underwhelming, but that’s because Jordan Love hasn’t thrown the ball much recently. He attempted 24 passes in Week 11 and 21 in Week 12, two of his three lowest totals of the season. In the three prior weeks, he attempted 37, 37 and 36 passes.

If Love drops back to throw more and continues to give Watson the same target share, he’s going to put up numbers. He’s a solid WR2 this week.

Dawson Knox, TE (BUF) vs PIT (ECR: TE29, Our Rank: TE10, Projected Points: 10.0)

Knox has been disappointing since Dalton Kincaid went down with an injury and hasn’t had over 37 receiving yards in a game this year.

So why risk him as your streaming tight end this week? It’s all about the matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers have allowed four or more catches to the opposing team’s primary tight end in eight of the last nine games. The middle of the field has been open against them and, after Josh Allen was sacked eight times last week, Buffalo will lean into the quick passing game a bit more. That could benefit Knox.

He’s not a slam dunk to start, but he may be the best streaming tight end available in your league.

The Week 13 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Jared Goff, QB (DET) vs GB (ECR: QB12, Our Rank: QB16, Projected Points, 14.7)

In Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers, Goff threw 39 passes, his second most in a game this season.

Yet, that translated to just 225 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

The Packers defense is elite and has flustered Goff at times. Since he joined the Lions in 2021, Goff has thrown for under 150 yards four times. Two of those games were against the Packers, including one last year.

He’s had a couple of big games against Green Bay as well, but the floor you typically associate with Goff isn’t there against the stingy Packers defense. He’s a fine starter in two-QB leagues, but you likely have a better option in traditional formats.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB (NE) vs NYG (ECR: RB9, Our Rank: RB17, Projected Points 14.3)

So, we all just trust Mike Vrabel to keep giving Henderson the ball now, huh?

For weeks, Vrabel stuck with Rhamondre Stevenson as the lead back. When Stevenson got hurt, Henderson got his opportunity and has shown flashes as a runner.

But he’s still been somewhat inconsistent, running for under four yards a carry in three of his last four games. And he still misses assignments in pass protection.

There’s a least a chance that Stevenson, who admittedly underwhelmed in his first game back, gets his legs back underneath him and gets a time share with Henderson. At the very least, Stevenson is more likely to get the goal-line work. Henderson is still a solid play against a suspect Giants rushing defense but is more of an RB2 than an RB1.

A.J. Brown, WR (PHI) vs CHI (ECR: WR12, Our Rank: WR25, Projected Points: 12.1)

A.J. Brown had the week we’ve been waiting for in Week 12, with 110 receiving yards and a touchdown. DeVonta Smith hasn’t been practicing and might miss Week 13. The Chicago Bears defense has given up a ton of big plays this year. So, everything is lining up for Brown to have a big week, right?

Not exactly. For starters, the Bears might be more formidable in the secondary than they have been for most of the season. Jaylon Johnson, who would likely spend a lot of time on Brown and is one of the premier cornerbacks in the league, is fully practicing and seems likely to play. Kyler Gordon might return as well.

Also, Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni have orchestrated an ultraconservative offense for the majority of the season and relied on the defense to get wins, much to Brown’s annoyance. If there was any team to be conservative against, it’s the team leading the NFL in takeaways.

Similar to Henderson, Brown’s ceiling may be high this week, but his floor needs to be taken into consideration. He’s more of a fringe WR2 than a WR1.

Jake Ferguson, TE (DAL) vs KC (ECR: TE7, Our Rank: TE14, Projected Points: 9.2)

Like many tight ends, most of Ferguson’s value is tied up in whether he finds the end zone.

He had 60 receiving yards in Week 12, the most he’s had in eight weeks. There’s a firm ceiling on Ferguson if he doesn’t score a touchdown.

He hasn’t been doing that as much lately. Ferguson had a four-game stretch in the middle of the season where he had a combined six touchdowns. Since that span, he has one touchdown in four games.

The Chiefs defense has allowed just three receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season and has allowed 18.3 points per game, fourth best in the league. There won’t be as many opportunities for touchdowns for Ferguson this week, meaning he should likely stay on your bench.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 13 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post The Yays and Nays: NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ’Em-Sit ’Em, Projections & Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.