NFL Week 13 Showdowns: Unbelievable Picks and Shocking Odds Revealed!
Ever wonder what it feels like to peek into the future of the NFL season? Well, wonder no more—thanks to the Opta supercomputer, we’re laying out win probabilities for every single game in the 2025 NFL season. It’s like having a crystal ball, but powered by data, numbers, and a whole lot of algorithmic mojo. From the Eagles’ flight path through the NFC skies to the Patriots and Broncos battling it out in the AFC jungle, the storylines unfold with a mixture of stats and gut-punching realities. But here’s the kicker: while these probabilities give us a fascinating snapshot, the NFL’s chaos and thrill mean nothing is ever etched in stone—there’s always room for that last-minute stunner or the underdog’s run. So, ready to dive into the numbers that might just revolutionize how you watch the games? Let’s get into the nitty-gritty, where every decimal point carries the weight of victory or heartbreak. LEARN MORE.
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
As of Wednesday heading into Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles (28.7%), Los Angeles Rams (18.7%), Green Bay Packers (14.6%), Chicago Bears (10.2%), Detroit Lions (9.7%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.3%) are the most likely to win the NFC. .
The New England Patriots (26.4%), Denver Broncos (24.6%), Houston Texans (8.8%), Indianapolis Colts (7.9%), Baltimore Ravens (6.7%), and Los Angeles Chargers (6.2%) have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Tuesday night). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday’s Predictions
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 50.6%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Lions -2.5 (as of Tuesday)
- Regular Season Meetings: Packers 105-78-7
- Last Meeting: Packers 27, Lions 13 (Sept. 7, 2025)
Quick Hit: This will be the 23rd Thanksgiving Day meeting between the Packers and Lions, the most in the NFL. Detroit owns a 12-9-1 (.571) record, but Green Bay has won four of the past five
Thanksgiving matchups.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 51.7%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (as of Tuesday)
- Regular Season Meetings: Cowboys 7-5
- Last Meeting: Chiefs 19, Dallas Cowboys 9 (Nov. 21, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Cowboys have won five straight home games against the Chiefs dating back to 1983, their second-longest active home win streak against a single opponent (Giants, 9).
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 59.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Ravens -7.0 (as of Tuesday)
- Regular Season Meetings: Ravens 32-26
- Last Meeting: Ravens 35, Bengals 34 (Nov. 7, 2024)
Quick Hit: Since drafting Joe Burrow in 2020, the Bengals are 40-30-1 (.570) when he starts and average 256.7 pass yards per game. Without Burrow, the Bengals are 7-16 (.304) and
average 210.6 pass yards per game.
Friday’s Prediction
Chicago Bears (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 62.8%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Eagles -7.0
- Regular Season Meetings: Bears 28-14-1
- Last Meeting: Eagles 25, Bears 20 (Dec. 18, 2022)
Quick Hit: The Eagles blew a 21-point lead against the Cowboys last week, the largest blown lead of the season by any team. It was their first blown three-touchdown lead since a Week 4
matchup against the 49ers in 2011.
Sunday’s Predictions
San Francisco 49ers (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 59.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: 49ers -4.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Browns 13-8
- Last Meeting: Browns 19, 49ers 17 (Oct. 15, 2023)
Quick Hit: Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in receptions with 81. He would
be the first running back to lead the league in receptions since San Francisco’s Roger Craig in 1985.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) at Tennessee Titans (1-10)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 55.7%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Jaguars -6.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Titans 34-26
- Last Meeting: Jaguars 20, Titans 13 (Dec. 29, 2024)
Quick Hit: The Jaguars beat the Cardinals, 27-24, in overtime last week, their second overtime
win this season (Week 9 against the Raiders). Jacksonville won two total overtime games from
2010-24.
Houston Texans (6-5) at Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 54.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Colts -4.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Colts 32-13-1
- Last Meeting: Texans 23, Colts 20 (Oct. 27, 2024)
Quick Hit: The Texans are 12-4 (.750) in division games under DeMeco Ryans (since 2023), the best divisional record in the NFL over the span.
New Orleans Saints (2-9) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Dolphins 58.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Dolphins -6.0
- Regular Season Meetings: Dolphins 7-6
- Last Meeting: Dolphins 20, Saints 3 (Dec. 27, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Dolphins have recovered nine opponent fumbles this season, second most in the NFL (Pittsburgh, 11). The Saints have lost eight fumbles this season,
tied for the third most in the NFL (Jets and Seahawks, nine).
Atlanta Falcons (4-7) at New York Jets (2-9)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jets 50.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Falcons -2.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Falcons 9-5
- Last Meeting: Falcons 13, Jets 8 (Dec. 3, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Falcons have recorded at least five sacks in four consecutive games. That is the
longest streak in franchise history and longest by any team since the 2022 season (Eagles –
five straight).
Arizona Cardinals (3-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 52.8%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.0
- Regular Season Meetings: Tied 11-11
- Last Meeting: Buccaneers 19, Cardinals 16 (Dec. 25, 2022)
Quick Hit: Jacoby Brissett has thrown a total of 150 passes over his last three starts, all losses for the Cardinals. The last QB to have a three-start span with 150 or more pass attempts and three team losses was Andrew Luck (164 attempts) in weeks 4-6, 2018.
Los Angeles Rams (9-2) at Carolina Panthers (6-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 61.0%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Rams -10.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Panthers 12-10
- Last Meeting: Rams 24, Panthers 10 (Oct. 16, 2022)
Quick Hit: The Rams have spent 12.9% of game time trailing in the second half this season, the lowest in the NFL. Over the last 10 seasons, the only team that has trailed for a smaller
percentage of time in the second half of games is the 2023 Ravens (10.3%).
Minnesota Vikings (4-7) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 71.0%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Seahawks -10.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Seahawks 12-7
- Last Meeting: Vikings 27, Seahawks 24 (Dec. 22, 2024)
Quick Hit: Andrew Van Ginkel has 55 tackles for loss, 32 passes defended and four forced fumbles since making his NFL debut in 2019. The only other players with all those marks or higher since 2019 are Lavonte David, Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt.
Buffalo Bills (7-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 52.7%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Bills -3.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Steelers 15-11
- Last Meeting: Bills 38, Steelers 3 (Oct. 9, 2022)
Quick Hit: The Bills beat the Steelers, 38-3, in the last regular-season meeting (2022), the largest win by either team in matchup history. The Bills became the third team in the Super Bowl era with 550 total net yards in a game against the Steelers and the first with that many yards since the Patriots in 2013.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 78.6%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Chargers -10.0
- Regular Season Meetings: Raiders 68-61-2
- Last Meeting: Chargers 20, Raiders 9 (Sept. 15, 2025)
Quick Hit: Justin Herbert has thrown at least one passing touchdown in all 10 games he has played against the Raiders in his career. He is tied with Dan Marino and Peyton Manning for the second-longest such streak to begin his career against the Raiders (Patrick Mahomes, 15).
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Denver Broncos (9-2) at Washington Commanders (3-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 66.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Broncos -6.5
- Regular Season Meetings: Broncos 8-7
- Last Meeting: Commanders 35, Broncos 33 (Sept. 17, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Broncos have forced opponents into a three-and-out on 31.8% of their offensive drives, the highest percentage in the NFL. The Commanders have gone three-and-out on just 16.0% of their offensive drives, second lowest in the league (Rams, 15.7%).
Monday Night Football Prediction
New York Giants (2-10) at New England Patriots (10-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 69.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Patriots -7.0
- Regular Season Meetings: Patriots 7-5
- Last Meeting: Giants 10, Patriots 7 (Nov. 26, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Patriots beat the Bengals, 26-20, in Week 12 and have now won nine
consecutive games. That’s their longest single-season winning streak since a 10-game
streak to begin the 2015 season.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Week 13 Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for Every Game appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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