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As we hit Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, the drama keeps ramping up — with clear divides emerging between the contenders and those just along for the ride. Remember that jaw-dropping Week 13? Cincinnati Bengals dismantled the Ravens, the Panthers pulled off a stunner against the Rams, and the Texans made a bold statement in Indianapolis. Amid all this chaos, the Chicago Bears have quietly stormed their way to the top of the NFC at 9-3, toppling defending champions on the road. But here’s the million-dollar question: which teams are truly destined to dance under the bright lights in Santa Clara come Super Bowl LX? Thanks to the Opta supercomputer — that wizardry blending raw talent analysis with team performance — we have some pretty compelling projections. From TRACR rankings to playoff probabilities and division win odds, this isn’t just guesswork; it’s the most data-driven look at the postseason battlefield you’ll find. Ready to see who’s marching forward and who’s on the brink? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE

The Opta supercomputer has projected the rest of the season, giving us the probable NFL playoff scenarios. We’ve included projected records, chances of winning the division, making the playoffs and reaching the Super Bowl.

Entering Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, we continue to see separation between the contenders and pretenders.

Week 13 was another wild one with the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Baltimore Ravens, the Carolina Panthers upending the Los Angeles Rams and the Houston Texans going into Indianapolis and coming away with a statement victory over the Colts.

And how about the surprising 9-3 Chicago Bears moving into the top spot in the NFC after winning on the road against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles?

What does this all mean for the playoff picture as we creep closer to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, California The Opta supercomputer helps answer that question by projecting the rest of the season and giving us the probable playoff scenario for both conferences.

We’ve included each team’s TRACR, projected record and seed, and chances of winning the division, making the playoffs and reaching the Super Bowl. TRACR incorporates individual talent on a roster and team performance.

Projecting the AFC Playoff Field

(Jump to NFC)

1. New England Patriots

TRACR: 11.47 (2nd in AFC)
Expected Record: 13-4
Playoff Probability: 100.0%
Win Division Probability: 90.7%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 25.5%

It feels like the Tom Brady era again. The Patriots are 10-2 and own the fourth-highest probability of winning the Super Bowl, according to the Opta supercomputer. They take on the visiting Giants in Week 13 on Monday Night Football.

Next Three Weeks: BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens

2. Denver Broncos

TRACR: 11.59 (1st in AFC)
Expected Record: 13-4
Playoff Probability: 99.4%
Win Division Probability: 91.3%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 26.6%

According to @OptaSTATS, there have been 202 instances in NFL history of a team trailing in each of its first 12 games of a season. The Broncos are the only ones to win 10 of those games.

Next Three Weeks: at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

TRACR: 8.13 (10th in AFC)
Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 79.6%
Win Division Probability: 34.7%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 6.2%

The Jaguars have been difficult to figure out. They’ve beaten the 49ers, Chiefs and Chargers but struggled to beat the Raiders and lost to the Davis Mills-led Texans. Either way, they’ve won three in a row and are projected to win the AFC South.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Colts, vs. Jets, at Broncos

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

TRACR: 9.43 (8th in AFC)
Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 50.4%
Win Division Probability: 49.2%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 5.1%

The “Fire Tomlin” chants were out during the team’s 26-7 home loss to the Bills. Pittsburgh, which has gone 2-4 after a 4-1 start, remains in a tie for first in the weak AFC North after the Ravens (also 6-6) were crushed by the Bengals. The Steelers visit Baltimore on Sunday.

Next Three Weeks: at Ravens, vs. Dolphins, at Lions

5. Buffalo Bills

TRACR: 9.53 (7th in AFC)
Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 80.8%
Win Division Probability: 9.3%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 7.3%

The Bills moved to within two games of the idle AFC East-leading Patriots with an impressive win at Pittsburgh in Week 13. They’d like to start stacking wins after splitting their last eight games following a 4-0 start. Buffalo visits New England in Week 15.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Bengals, at Patriots, at Browns

6. Indianapolis Colts

TRACR: 8.82 (9th in AFC)
Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 72.4%
Win Division Probability: 35.0%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 6.0%

Why are the Jags ahead of the Colts? Expected division position is an average projected finish, and it’s likely that the games remaining for one of the teams are more impactful. For example, the Colts (who have lost two in a row) might have a higher chance of finishing first, but also a higher chance of finishing third. Obviously, the matchup at Jacksonville looms large.

Next Three Weeks: at Jaguars, at Seahawks, vs. 49ers

7. Los Angeles Chargers

TRACR: 9.80 (6th in AFC)
Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 71.9%
Win Division Probability: 8.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 6.3%

The Chargers have won four of their last five games after last week’s 31-14 home win over the hapless Las Vegas Raiders. Los Angeles, however, will find out what it’s made of over the final five games: Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys

First AFC Teams Out

8. Houston Texans

TRACR: 11.08 (3rd in AFC)
Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 71.8%
Win Division Probability: 30.9%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 9.9%

After an 0-3 start, the Texans have won seven of nine and four in a row. They’ve made statements with wins over the Bills and at Indianapolis in their last two games, but now a trip to desperate Kansas City awaits in Week 14.

Next Three Weeks: at Chiefs, vs. Cardinals, vs. Raiders

9. Kansas City Chiefs

TRACR: 10.33 (4th in AFC)
Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 22.9%
Win Division Probability: 0.6%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 2.3%

The Chiefs have dropped three of four and are on the verge of potentially being all but knocked out of the playoff race by the red-hot Texans this weekend. The Opta supercomputer gives KC the 10th-highest playoff probability at 22.9% heading into Week 14. It’s hard to count Patrick Mahomes and Co. out.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Texans, vs. Chargers, at Titans

10. Baltimore Ravens

TRACR: 9.87 (5th in AFC)
Expected Record: 8-9
Playoff Probability: 44.0%
Win Division Probability: 44.0%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 4.4%

Well, not many people saw that coming. Riding a five-game winning streak, the Ravens suffered a shocking 32-14 loss to Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thanksgiving. Still, Baltimore has a chance to take over first place in the AFC North with a home win over Pittsburgh in Week 14.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Steelers, at Bengals, vs. Patriots

11. Miami Dolphins

TRACR: 4.39 (14th in AFC)
Expected Record: 7-10
Playoff Probability: 0.6%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

The Dolphins are making things interesting. They’ve won four of five and three in a row heading into another winnable matchup at the Jets. For now, the cries for Mike McDaniel’s firing have quieted.

Next Three Games: at Jets, at Steelers, vs. Bengals

12. Cincinnati Bengals

TRACR: 8.01 (11th in AFC)
Expected Record: 7-10
Playoff Probability: 6.8%
Win Division Probability: 6.8%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 0.4%

Joe Burrow is back and so are the Bengals. Can they somehow win a division no one else wants to win? The supercomputer gives them a 6.8% chance, though that will rise considerably if they can win the next two. They have the Dolphins, Cardinals and Browns in the final three.

Next Three Weeks: at Bills, vs. Ravens, at Dolphins

13. New York Jets

TRACR: 7.44 (12th in AFC)
Expected Record: 6-11
Playoff Probability: <0.1%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

The Jets have split their two games since Tyrod Taylor replaced Justin Fields as the starting quarterback. They’ve also won three of their last five after opening the season 0-7.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Dolphins, at Jaguars, at Saints

14. Cleveland Browns

TRACR: 2.59 (15th in AFC)
Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: <0.1%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

Shedeur Sanders has thrown for a combined 358 yards with a 60.0 completion percentage, two touchdowns and one interception while the Browns have split his first two starts. The final stretch will be all about what they have in the 2025 fifth-round pick.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Titans, at Bears, vs. Bills

Eliminated AFC Teams

Las Vegas Raiders

TRACR: 1.81 (16th in AFC)
Expected Record: 3-14

Next Three Weeks: vs. Steelers, at Bengals, vs. Patriots

Tennessee Titans

TRACR: 5.09 (13th in AFC)
Expected Record: 3-14

Next Three Weeks: at Browns, at 49ers, vs. Chiefs

Projecting the NFC Playoff Field

1. Los Angeles Rams

TRACR: 12.40 (4th in NFC)
Expected Record: 12-5
Playoff Probability: 92.5%
Win Division Probability: 57.3%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 17.4%

Matthew Stafford finally threw an interception and the Rams were upset by the Panthers. As a result, they fell in the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Opta supercomputer, however, sees Los Angeles regaining the top seed before the end of the regular season.

Next Three Weeks: at Cardinals, vs. Lions, at Seahawks

2. Chicago Bears

TRACR: 10.17 (6th in NFC)
Expected Record: 12-5
Playoff Probability: 88.1%
Win Division Probability: 43.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 11.9%

The Bears have won nine of their last 10, but they finally got their signature win at Philadelphia on Black Friday. That, coupled with the Rams’ loss to the Panthers, put them atop the conference standings at 9-3. Another big game awaits this weekend against the rival Packers.

Next Three Weeks: at Packers, vs. Browns, vs. Packers

3. Philadelphia Eagles

TRACR: 14.14 (1st in NFC)
Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 94.3%
Win Division Probability: 88.9%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 23.7%

Despite two straight losses, the Eagles remain the top-ranked team in the league, per TRACR. The offense, though, is struggling while the defense has holes to fix after giving up a ridiculous 281 rushing yards in Week 13. It doesn’t get any easier in Los Angeles on Monday Night Football.

Next Three Weeks: at Chargers, vs. Raiders, at Commanders

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TRACR: 8.92 (8th in NFC)
Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 73.0%
Win Division Probability: 72.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 4.6%

The Buccaneers got Bucky Irving back and snapped a three-game skid with a 20-17 win over the Cardinals. They’ll look to take care of business against the Saints and Falcons before what could be a showdown with the pesky Panthers in Week 15.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Saints, vs. Falcons, at Panthers

5. Seattle Seahawks

TRACR: 8.34 (10th in NFC)
Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 81.8%
Win Division Probability: 24.8%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 5.8%

The Seahawks have bounced back with back-to-back victories after falling in a NFC West showdown with the Rams in Week 11. Sam Darnold totaled two TD passes and no interceptions in wins over the Titans and Vikings after throwing seven picks over his previous four games.

Next Three Weeks: at Falcons, vs. Colts, vs. Rams

6. Green Bay Packers

TRACR: 12.90 (2nd in NFC)
Expected Record: 11-5-1
Playoff Probability: 91.7%
Win Division Probability: 52.7%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 21.3%

Things looked bleak for the Packers when they nearly lost their third straight game and Josh Jacobs went out with a knee injury. But Jacobs has returned and Green Bay has won three in a row. The Pack can take over first place in the NFC North with a home win over the rival Bears.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Bears, at Broncos, at Bears

7. San Francisco 49ers

TRACR: 6.89 (14th in NFC)
Expected Record: 11-6
Playoff Probability: 76.07%
Win Division Probability: 18.27%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 3.4%

With Brock Purdy back and Christian McCaffrey running strong, the 49ers have won their last three games to improve to 9-4. There’s no reason to think they can’t keep it going following their bye week when they take on the visiting 1-11 Titans in Week 15.

Next Three Weeks: BYE, vs. Titans, at Colts

First NFC Teams Out

8. Detroit Lions

TRACR: 12.60 (3rd in NFC)
Expected Record: 10-7
Playoff Probability: 47.4%
Win Division Probability: 4.2%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 7.3%

Believe it or not, the Lions are projected to miss the playoffs. After a 4-1 start, they’ve only won three of their last seven games after losing to the Packers on Thanksgiving. Detroit’s Thursday night game against the Cowboys in Week 15 figures to have major playoff implications.

Next Three Weeks: BYE, vs. Cowboys, at Rams

9. Dallas Cowboys

TRACR: 11.60 (5th in NFC)
Expected Record: 9-7-1
Playoff Probability: 24.6%
Win Division Probability: 11.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 3.2%

The Cowboys were all but dead after a 27-17 home loss to the Cardinals on Nov. 3. But they’ve since moved back into the playoff picture with three straight wins, including victories over the Eagles and Chiefs. The bye week doesn’t come at a good time for a surging team.

Next Three Weeks: BYE, at Lions, vs. Vikings

10. Carolina Panthers

TRACR: 7.57 (12th in NFC)
Expected Record: 9-8
Playoff Probability: 30.9%
Win Division Probability: 27.9%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: 1.6%

The Panthers have beaten the Cowboys, Packers and Rams. They’ve lost to the Cardinals and Saints. It’s a tough team to figure out, but there’s little doubt Carolina’s visit to New Orleans after its bye week is a big one. The Panthers finish with the Seahawks and the Bucs twice.

Next Three Weeks: BYE, at Saints, vs. Buccaneers

11. Atlanta Falcons (6.66)

TRACR: 7.97 (11th in NFC)
Expected Record: 7-10
Playoff Probability: <0.1%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

After a 3-2 start, Atlanta has lost six of its last seven. The team, however, has split its two games since Kirk Cousins took over under center for the injured Michael Penix Jr. On a positive note, Bijan Robinson has rushed for 316 yards with three TDs over the past three games.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers, at Cardinals

12. Washington Commanders

TRACR: 8.80 (9th in NFC)
Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: <0.1%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

With Jayden Daniels sidelined, 2025 has become a lost year for the Commanders. They’ve lost seven in a row but showed some fight in a 27-26 overtime loss to the Broncos on Sunday Night Football. A matchup with the reeling Vikings is winnable in Week 14.

Next Three Weeks: at Vikings, at Giants, vs. Eagles

13. Minnesota Vikings

TRACR: 2.16 (16th in NFC)
Expected Record: 5-12
Playoff Probability: <0.1%
Win Division Probability: <0.1%
Reach Super Bowl Probability: <0.1%

The biggest question in Minnesota these days isn’t whether the team will make the playoffs, but rather what to do about J.J. McCarthy. Max Brosmer didn’t appear to be the answer at QB in his first career start. He threw four interceptions in a 26-0 loss to the Seahawks.

Next Three Weeks: vs. Commanders, at Cowboys, at Giants