Ravens and Eagles Set for Showdown: Which Early NFL Week 15 Bet Could Rewrite the Season?

Ever had that gut feeling when you just know the market’s about to overcook the favorites? Well, after cashing in on Week 14’s sharp picks—the Vikings holding steady as a pick ‘em and the Rams spanking the Cardinals—I’m doubling down on two strong favorites before the odds swell beyond reason. Sure, Joe Burrow’s got that sparkle back, and the Bengals might seem like the trendy underdog with a three-game covering streak. But here’s the kicker: Baltimore’s underlying stats laugh at Cincinnati’s defense, which, frankly, ranks as the NFL’s worst by defensive efficiency. Who’s really got the edge when the Ravens lean on Lamar Jackson, fresh off his best rushing day since early in the season? Meanwhile, Philly’s defense just terrorized one of the league’s finest QBs, and with the Raiders scrambling behind backup Kenny Pickett in a bone-chilling forecast, the Eagles look poised to clip wings and cash in big. Are the spreads hinting at an opening too good to resist, or am I just chasing ghosts in the cold? Stick with me as I unpack the Week 15 gridiron gambles that you won’t want to miss. LEARN MORE

I have to run my Locked And Loaded: Early NFL Best Bets article back in Week 15 after hitting both of my looks last week. Those included the Minnesota Vikings as a pick ‘em over the Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Rams -8 over the Arizona Cardinals. Continuing last week’s logic, I’m targeting these two favorites before the market steams them up to a price too high.

Cincy will be a popular underdog this week because, essentially, Joe Burrow looks good, and something is clearly wrong with Baltimore. The Bengals are on a three-game covering streak, with a win against the Ravens in Burrow’s return from an injury two weeks ago and a tough-fought loss to the Buffalo Bills on the road last week.

Regardless, this is too good a number for Baltimore to pass on. Despite all their flaws, the Ravens still have better underlying stats than Cincinnati. Plus, if there was ever a get-right game for Baltimore, it’s against Cincy’s trash-a** defense. According to Sūmer Sports, the Bengals have the worst defensive efficiency in the NFL.

Also, the Ravens outgained the Bengals 6.1-4.8 in yards per play in their 32-14 home loss to Cincinnati on Thanksgiving. However, Baltimore had a -4 turnover margin (5-1) in that game, which was the key to its loss. As long as the Ravens don’t turn the ball over and lean on their ground game, they should be able to go up and down the field on the Bengals this week.

With that in mind, Lamar Jackson had his best rushing game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers last week (seven carries for 43 yards and one touchdown) since before his injury in Week 4. Because this is a must-win for the Ravens, I’m expecting Lamar to leave it all on the field Sunday, and Baltimore’s offense needs Jackson to use his legs.

Even though the Raiders stole the most fraudulent cover Sunday to halt their three-game against-the-spread skid in a 24–17 loss to the Denver Broncos, it barely factors into my handicap. It just deserves a mention. And the Eagles dropped a bruising overtime game to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football earlier this week.

Moving on, Philadelphia DC Vic Fangio vs. Las Vegas recently-promoted OC Greg Olson is in the running for the biggest coaching mismatch of Week 15. Philly’s defense has a 68.3% pressure rate vs. Chargers QB Justin Herbert Monday, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and sacked him seven times.

If the Eagles can do that to one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, what are they going to do against Raiders backup QB Kenny Pickett, who will probably start for an injured QB Geno Smith Sunday? Yeah, Philadelphia’s offense sucks, and it’s disappointing, and Eagles fans are egging first-year OC Kevin Patullo’s house because they hate him, and they are Eagles fans.

But again, the Raiders are on their second offensive coordinator, and they have the worst offensive efficiency in the league. Also, Philly still has a top-10 defense, even without DT Jalen Carter, who is hurt, because the Eagles have the deepest front seven in football. On top of that, Pickett played for Philadelphia last season, so the Eagles are familiar with him.

Furthermore, it’s supposed to be brick cold in Philly Sunday. Pickett in cold weather vs. Philadelphia’s defense just sounds terrible, doesn’t it? Either way, Las Vegas doesn’t do anything. The Raiders have the lowest-graded special teams unit in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus, and they are 24th in points allowed per game.

Lastly, the “Eagles -10.5” is pretty cheap when comparing them to other spreads this week. The Seattle Seahawks are -13.5 against the 8-5 Indianapolis Colts this week, and the San Francisco 49ers are -13 vs. the Tennessee Titans. Given those spreads, Philly should be at least two-touchdown favorites over Las Vegas, which is the most hopeless franchise in the NFL currently.

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