NBA Faces Rising Injury Crisis: Could the Schedule Be Hiding a Bigger Secret?

Saturday night in Las Vegas brings a buzz that’s hard to ignore—Victor Wembanyama is poised to step back onto the hardwood after sitting out twelve grueling games with a calf strain. And if you’ve been feeling like calf injuries are suddenly taking over the NBA headlines—from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Ja Morant and Jrue Holiday—it’s no coincidence. Numbers don’t lie: alongside injury guru Jeff Stotts, Tom Haberstroh uncovered a near 40% spike in calf strains just in the opening stretch of this season compared to last. But what’s even more eye-opening is how much longer players are now sidelined, with games missed tripling to a staggering 108 by the 20-game mark. The chatter around the NBA Cup’s condensed schedule stirring these issues caught some heat recently, sparking a defensive stance from the league itself. Yet, while the NBA insists the schedule remains consistent with prior seasons, the reality on the ground—where teams are more cautious than ever returning star players—is impossible to ignore. Injuries have always been part of basketball’s brutal rhythm, but evolving science and cautious management mean we’re all watching the stars less on the court—and maybe, feeling the loss a bit deeper each time. LEARN MORE

Saturday in Las Vegas, it appears likely Victor Wembanyama will make his return to the court after missing a dozen games due to a calf strain. If it feels like there have been more calf strains — Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, Isaiah Hartenstein, Ty Jerome, Ben Sheppard — it’s because there have been. Tom Haberstroh broke down the numbers at Yahoo Sports, working with Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes.

In the first 20 games of the 2025-26 season, we’ve seen a substantial increase in calf injuries (excluding contusions caused by blunt force), according to leading injury expert Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com. This time last season, there were 18 calf injuries at the 20-game mark. This season, it’s up to 25 incidents, representing an increase of nearly 40%.

More significant, however, is the elongated recovery timeline of these injuries. Per Stotts’ data, the number of games lost due to calf injuries, through 20 games played, skyrocketed from 36 to 108. A tripling of last season’s total.

A little more than a week ago, John Holinger of The Athletic (formerly part of the Memphis front office) asked whether the strains of the NBA Cup schedule had exacerbated the rise in soft-tissue injuries. While that has been a topic discussed in league circles, the article largely flew under the radar — until Thursday, when the NBA released a lengthy statement pushing back on the premise of Hollinger’s article, with NBA spokesman Mike Bass’ name attached.

“John Hollinger’s premise that the NBA Cup has led to a denser schedule resulting in more player injuries is simply not supported by the data. Hollinger wonders if ‘the league turned the early-season travel dial a little too high’ and posits that teams are facing ‘an unnaturally heavy schedule cycle.’ The reality is the NBA played roughly the same number of games through 42 days this season (308) as last season (307).

“Further, those numbers are consistent with pre-Cup years (308 games in 2022 and 313 games in 2021). The Cup has objectively not led to a denser league-wide schedule in the early part of the season.

“Hollinger additionally claims the NBA is seeing an ‘uptick in early-season soft-tissue injuries’ and that ‘the league keeps getting worse at keeping those stars healthy.’ Through the season’s first six weeks, the number of injuries forcing star players to miss games is the lowest in the past six seasons, down more than 25 percent year-over-year. While several star players have not played this season due to injuries sustained last season, the suggestion that any increase in games missed this season is related to the schedule’s first six weeks is patently misleading.”

Hollinger’s response summed up the general reaction to the NBA’s statement: Why did the league release this in the first place?

The NBA’s point that injuries to stars from last season — specifically, Achilles injuries to Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton — are part of the number problem is correct. However, the league statement does not address the facts noted at the start of this piece, that calf injuries — and soft-tissue injuries in general — are up. And because of what everyone saw with Tatum and Haliburton, teams are far more cautious about bringing back players from calf and other injuries.

Injuries are always part of the NBA season. Now, due to improved science and teams being risk-averse considering the nine-figure investments in their biggest stars, teams are willing to keep players out longer and make sure they are fully healed before a player returns. It’s what’s best for the players and the teams, but it means seeing less of some stars.