Can Philly’s Underdogs Shock the Pacers in a Stunning Upset?

Ever notice how a game that lacks the usual playoff-fire can still serve up plenty of intrigue? Tonight’s Pacers vs. 76ers tip-off at 7:00 ET might not have the NBA Cup stakes burning bright, but it’s a fascinating puzzle nonetheless. The Pacers, mere months removed from a Finals run, now stumble under injuries and expectations alike—can a trio of standouts carry a floundering squad on the road? Meanwhile, the 76ers juggle health mysteries around their star big man, Joel Embiid, all while juggling their championship aspirations. So who’s truly got the edge when the dust settles? Sometimes it’s about the depth, not just the headlines. Ready to peel back the layers on this mismatch?

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Pacers vs. 76ers, 7:00 ET

After starting the College Basketball season on fire, I have cooled quite a bit with my last three plays going down. It happens, and I even mentioned that it was likely to happen now that books are likely paying closer attention to the teams. It doesn’t mean I’ll stop playing college rankings, it just means that I need to adjust. As a sports bettor, you’re constantly adjusting anyway, so recognizing when it is needed is half the battle. We should make an adjustment in the NBA now as well because we’ve almost reached the end of the NBA Cup, so these Friday games are starting to worry me a little bit. There are only a few teams remaining for the Cup, so tonight’s action between the Pacers and 76ers doesn’t have that same added intensity, but we should get a decent game nonetheless.

The Pacers went to the NBA Finals last year, and this year they will be lucky to make the Play-In Tournament. Most of that is due to injury, but it is also possible that everything just aligned for them last year in ways most didn’t expect. This season, the team is just 6-18, but three of their wins have come in their past five games. They have three guys in their starting lineup who are legitimate players – Andrew Nembhard, Benedict Mathurin, and Pascal Siakam. That trio might be able to carry their group in some games, but there will be a lot where they need role players to make a difference. Being on the road is a challenge in the NBA for a lot of bench guys. Sure, there are some that get hot, and there are some that thrive in that environment, but basketball is a habit sport, and the best of the best are much better at playing on the road than a guy who only gets 18 minutes a game. The Pacers are without two of their starters, and another few guys who will be out tonight are ones who could provide some impact minutes. TJ McConnell is the only guy on the bench who I think is legitimate enough to get real minutes.

The 76ers have their own issues when it comes to health and player availability. Mr. Game Time Decision, Joel Embiid, should be back for this game. When Philadelphia is at its best, they have Embiid on the floor. There is no denying his talent. Even if you hate his foul baiting, campaigning for MVP, and his shot selection, he puts up good numbers. The problem is that he has never played more than 68 games in a season. He played in just 19 last year, and he has been in just nine of 23 this season. The 76ers have been pretty clear about him this year – we aren’t going to play him regularly, and they aren’t going to play him a lot in most games. The goal is a championship, not just to win some regular season games. Without Embiid, the Philadelphia roster still has some talent. Tyrese Maxey is a very good scoring guard. Paul George is older, but has some things left to prove. We should get all three of those guys in the lineup tonight.

I like the bench for the 76ers significantly more than I like the Pacers, so even if Embiid is a late scratch, or Maxey misses (both are listed as probable) I think the 76ers have enough to win. This is just a bad matchup for the Pacers. Both teams have plenty of rest, so there is no concern there. It is mostly about who will be there, and I think the eight guys that will play for the 76ers are better than the eight that will be there for the Pacers. Give me Philly -5.5.

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