2025 NBA Cup Semifinals Showdown: Which Underdog Will Shock the Knicks and Spurs?

“Where were you for the semifinals of the 2025 NBA Cup?” It’s the kind of question I can already hear echoing around future family gatherings—like a badge of honor or a rite of passage for true basketball aficionados. And sure, joking aside, is Oklahoma City really the best team in the league if they don’t clinch this title? Well, opinions will fly, but I’m convinced OKC is the cream of the crop, even if only die-hard NBA geeks care enough to debate it. Now, if you’re anything like me—nervously clutching that betting slip as the drama unfolds—let’s dissect the numbers that really caught my eye. From the tactical chess match between the Knicks and Magic to the powerhouse showdown of Spurs versus Thunder, I dove deep into team dynamics, player availability, and those quirky matchup factors that most folks overlook. Betting markets? Psh, I’m more inclined to fade ’em than follow along blindly, especially when the Over is tempting everyone on a Saturday night that’s somehow lighter—college football taking a brief hiatus. There’s strategy here, layers beneath the surface, and maybe a few surprises waiting to shake up the expected narratives. Ready to explore why the game might end as a defensive slugfest rather than a shootout, or why Victor Wembanyama’s return could turn the Spurs into a serious threat? Let’s jump right in and unpack this basketball saga. LEARN MORE.

“Where were you for the semifinals of the 2025 NBA Cup?” is what I’m sure all of our grandchildren will be asking one day. I mean, are the Oklahoma City Thunder the best team in the Association if they don’t win the NBA Cup? Who’s to say? Obviously, I’m kidding. OKC is the best team in basketball, and no one cares about this besides fellow hardcore NBA fans.

However, if you are like me and sweating the 2025 NBA Cup semifinals with a betting slip in hand, let’s get into the numbers with plays for the Knicks-Magic and Spurs-Thunder that stood out once I dug into the team profiles, available players, and matchup quirks.

I’d rather fade the market than follow it. Especially when the market is betting an Over on a primetime game in what should be one of the most-bet games in the NBA so far this season, because this is the first Saturday without college football. This game opened with a 223.5-point total, and it’s at 224.5 as of noon ET Saturday.

For what it’s worth, I see the logic in betting the Over here. It’s usually sharp money that moves markets in NBA regular-season games, not the public. More importantly, New York beat Orlando 106-100 this past Sunday, and the total was 229.5. Typically, it’s wise to zig-zag on a rematch in the NBA.

Also, Knicks All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t play in that game, and he is not on the injury report for Saturday. KAT is probably the second-best offensive center in basketball behind Denver Nuggets’ big Nikola Jokić. Plus, the Magic plays faster away from home, and their road games are higher scoring.

But, styles make fights, and this is more likely to be a rock-fight than a shootout. Knicks-Magic this past weekend had a 94.0 Pace. For context, the Boston Celtics play at the slowest pace in the NBA at 95.7. There were 66 points scored in the first quarter of Knicks-Magic Sunday, with the second-highest scoring quarter hitting just 51 points.

Furthermore, Orlando will be without SG Franz Wagner, its leading scorer and shot creator. That means Magic All-Star forward Paolo Banchero will get more usage in the NBA Cup semifinals. Paolo plays more iso-ball, is a bad outside shooter, and has an inefficient shot selection. NYK has two of the best defensive wings in basketball to throw at Banchero, too.

My other pro-Under factors include: New York scores fewer points on the road than at home. The Knicks are missing their two best 3-point shooters. The NBA Cup is in Las Vegas at a venue with unfamiliar sightlines, and this is a more meaningful game, so there should be more effort on defense. Both teams have higher defensive ratings than offensive ratings.

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Maybe I’m “stepping in it” here, but the Spurs are getting too many points. OKC’s average line at home in last season’s playoffs was -9.9. The Thunder were -10.5 favorites in three of their four home games vs. the Nuggets in the 2025 Western Conference Semifinals.

Well, call me crazy, but this San Antonio team with Victor Wembanyama, who is returning Saturday from a 12-game absence, is better than the Denver team that lost to Oklahoma City in the playoffs last season. Wemby told ESPN he thinks he is the best player in basketball earlier this week. While that isn’t true yet, it will be in the next year or two.

Between his size, defensive instincts, shooting, handle, and shot creation, Wembanyama is the truth. With all due respect to Jokic and the reigning NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. As he said, Jokic is the best offensive player in the NBA. But Wemby averages 26.2 points per game on 50.2% shooting, and he is by far the best defensive player in the sport. That’s insane.

Finally, the Spurs have the youth and athleticism to hang with the Thunder. San Antonio wing Stephon Castle is a great two-way player, SG Devin Vassell is a floor-spacing sharpshooter, and veteran forward Harrison Barnes is a 3-and-D, glue guy, who every playoff team needs.

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