Could the New York Knicks Finally Break Their Finals Drought and Shock the NBA World?
Is this the Knicks’ moment to finally break their Finals drought that’s lingered since 1999? With the Eastern Conference losing some of its bite and New York quietly sharpening its teeth, the question hangs in the air like the buzz of a crowded Madison Square Garden — can a team once wracked with doubts now seize the crown? When the Knicks unexpectedly parted ways with Tom Thibodeau—right after their most successful 21st-century season—and handed the reins to Mike Brown, a man who wasn’t even their first pick, many scratched their heads. Yet here we are, with the Knicks boasting the second-best TRACR rating league-wide and representing the East in the Emirates NBA Cup Final. Brown’s approach has injected new vigor into a squad that seemed tapped out, but what exactly has shifted beneath the surface? And crucially, is this the spark that can propel the Knicks to that elusive NBA Finals run? Dive into the details of a perfect offense revamped, the quiet but mighty influence of Mitchell Robinson, and the candid truths about New York’s pursuit of championship glory. LEARN MORE
The NBA’s Eastern Conference is down and New York is on the rise. Can the Knicks make their first run to the Finals since 1999?
When the New York Knicks chose to part ways with head coach Tom Thibodeau, the decision left many people confused. The Knicks had just completed their most successful season of the 21st Century. Why was Thibodeau getting the boot? To make matters worse, Thibodeau’s successor, Mike Brown, seemed to be far from the New York’s first choice.
Fast forward to the Emirates NBA Cup Final and the Knicks are not only representing the Eastern Conference (against the upstart San Antonio Spurs), but they also own the second-best TRACR in the entire league.
Clearly, Brown has added new life to a veteran team that seemed to have squeezed all they could out of their metaphorical orange. But how? And what does it mean for their chances of returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999?
The Perfect Offense
When the Knicks first traded for Karl-Anthony Towns, the idea was they would be so dangerous on the offensive side of the ball they could make up for any of the defensive shortcomings of a Towns/Jalen Brunson pairing. Under Thibodeau, that somewhat came to fruition, as their offense was very good, but when push came to shove against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, it wasn’t enough to overcome their defensive limitations. Now, under Brown, New York boasts the best offense in the world outside of the one that rosters Nikola Jokic.
Great offenses tend to have a few of these features going for them: great personnel (via on-ball creation and spacing), wicked pace, and intense physicality. Look around at the best offenses in basketball right now. The Denver Nuggets have great personnel and a ton of size (which makes them very physical). The Boston Celtics are one of the best shooting teams in the league (spacing) and they have a several players comfortable creating their own looks behind the arc (on-ball creation). The Houston Rockets are maybe the best offensive rebounding team in NBA history (physicality).
The Knicks basically have all of this. They’ve always had the ponies in the stable. Both Brunson (6th) and Towns (50th) are in the top 50 in the entire NBA in offensive DRIP. And when Mitchell Robinson (1st in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage) is healthy, the Knicks are one of the most bruising teams in the association.
The differences under Brown are the shot chart distribution and pace of play. Last season, New York was sixth in frequency of field goal attempts from between 10-16 feet and 28th in 3-pointers. Now, the Knicks sit at 11th and seventh in those categories, respectively. They’ve dramatically changed their shot profile despite a very similar roster. Brown has implemented a team wide mandate that players turn down inefficient non-rim two-pointers in favor of shots that net you an extra point. Brunson, Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Miles McBride are all attempting more 3-pointers per 100 possessions than they did last season.
Much like he did during his Coach of the Year campaign with the Sacramento Kings in 2022-23, Brown has also gotten the Knicks to play faster than they did last season. It doesn’t show up in traditional pace metrics, but the Knicks are demonstrating more fluidity with their offensive process. There are fewer possessions with Brunson pounding the rock until the shot clock gets under 10, and more swing-swing-swing sequences for open 3s. The Knicks are averaging nearly 15 more passes a game than they were in 2024-25, according to NBA.com
This may seem unimportant, but it gives New York’s offense an element of variety. With one of the best singular scoring forces in the NBA in Brunson, New York will always have a credible form of offense. But now, that doesn’t have to be their only punch. The Knicks can sprinkle in all the pace and ball movement principles that Brown brings in with him and fall back on Brunson ball as a last resort. Playing this way also empowers Brunson’s supporting cast, leading to bounce back seasons like the one we are currently seeing from Bridges, who leads the team in DELTA (the change in a player’s DRIP from the beginning of the season until now).
Mitchell Robinson Matters
On the surface, it seems like a player who averages 3.6 PPG and is on pace for the worst free throw shooting season in NBA history (22.2%) should have little bearing on whether a team wins or not, but Robinson sits third on the team among rotation players in on-court rating (plus-13.4 points per 100 possessions).
Although he’s a limited offensive player, Robinson bolsters New York’s offense through his ability to generate second chances. The Knicks are in the 99th percentile in offensive rating in his minutes. Second chances vastly improve the margin for error on offense and Robinson’s ability to keep possessions alive is a big factor in New York’s offensive success.
Where Robinson isn’t getting enough credit is on defense. After hovering around the middle of the pack last season, the Knicks are now 10th in defensive TRACR, which gives them the two-way balance you need to compete in the late rounds of the postseason. This is where availability is the best ability. Robinson has missed eight of the team’s 25 games, but he’s already played more minutes this year (297) than he did all of last season (290). As the team’s third-best defender (per D-DRIP) and only rotation-level center, this makes a big difference for their defense. Just like on offense, Robinson has helped the Knicks’ rebounding defensively. They’re third in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, up from 19th last season.
Are The Knicks True Contenders?
The Knicks’ offensive ceiling under Brown is higher than it was under Thibodeau, and if Robinson continues to stay relatively healthy, the subtle improvement to their defense that he provides gives them more two-way balance.
They still aren’t without their flaws. Towns and Brunson are still their two best players, and both of them have vulnerabilities that can be exploited by high-level playoff offenses. They also lack a true high-level point-of-attack stopper (McBride is too small and Bridges is too frail) and rely too much on Robinson (a health risk and someone who can be schemed out of games through intentional fouling). But no one in the East is without their flaws, and as of right now, the Knicks are the team with the fewest holes (1st in TRACR in the Eastern Conference).
Nothing is guaranteed in this league. Injuries and unexpected shooting slumps can prematurely end seasons, and every year, we see a couple of teams fall victim to these tragedies. But the Knicks are better than they were under Thibodeau and the East is weaker than it once was, giving New York their best chance to return to the NBA Finals in quite some time.
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The post Basketball Mecca: Do the New York Knicks Have Their Best Chance of Making the NBA Finals This Century? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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