NFL Week 17 Shocker: Unexpected Heroes Emerge While Favorites Crumble in Stunning Twists
Week 17 in the NFL – where heroes are made, and sometimes dashed – delivered yet another mixed bag of jaw-dropping brilliance and the kind of flops that leave fans scratching their heads. You ever wonder if every MVP contender secretly dreams of a “Heisman Moment” to cement their legacy? Well, Drake Maye might just have had his for the New England Patriots, turning heads and stirring the MVP conversation with a performance that’s tough to ignore. As the regular season winds down, it’s fascinating to see which teams soared and which stumbled when it mattered most. So buckle up, because we’re diving into the striking winners and the painful losers of this penultimate NFL weekend — and trust me, there are some stories worth a second look. LEARN MORE
Like every weekend on the slate, Week 17 of the NFL had some incredible performances and some that were … not so incredible. We break down some of the highlights and lowlights.
It’s often said a superstar needs to have his “Heisman Moment” if he’s going to win the annual award for the best player in college football.
If the same were to be said about the NFL MVP award, Drake Maye may have just had his defining performance for the New England Patriots to sway the race in his direction.
As is the case each week throughout the season, some winners outperformed expectations and some losers underperformed expectations. Let’s look at some of those who did one or the other in the penultimate week of the 2025 NFL season.
We start with the aforementioned second-year quarterback of the AFC East champs.
NFL Week 17 Winners
Drake Maye’s MVP Chances
According to DraftKings, Maye entered Week 17 with the second-best MVP odds (+180), behind only Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams (-225).
But the 2024 Pro Bowl selection likely closed the gap with his five-touchdown effort in New England’s 42-10 road win over the New York Jets on Sunday. He completed 19-of-21 attempts for 256 yards and didn’t throw a pick while racking up his career-high TD total.
The 23-year-old signal caller became the 10th-youngest player since 1950 to throw for five touchdowns and no interceptions in a single game. He’s the youngest QB to do so since C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans did it at 22 years, 33 days in November 2023.
Maye is also the fourth player to post a five-TD, no-interception game in 2025, following Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions, Stafford and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s only the second Patriot not named Tom Brady to throw for five scores without a pick. Steve Grogan was the other, while Brady had six such games.
With a 13-3 record under first-year coach Mike Vrabel that’s tied for the best in the NFL, New England, which clinched the AFC East title when the Buffalo Bills lost to the Philadelphia Eagles, has turned things around after consecutive 4-13 seasons.
So how does Maye compare to Stafford in some of the key statistical categories?
Stafford, whose Rams face the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football, has thrown for 278.6 yards per game with 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Maye is averaging 262.7 yards per game to go with 30 TDs and eight picks.
Their pickable pass percentages are both elite. Stafford ranked fifth among qualified QBs heading into Week 17 with a 2.77% pickable pass rate, while Maye was 10th at 3.21.
However, Maye’s performance on Sunday gives him the slight edge in passer rating at 112.9 to 112.1. He also had the edge in well-thrown percentage heading into Week 17, ranking sixth at 85.3 – well ahead of Stafford’s 80.0% rate.
Maye has also been one of the league’s most accurate passers under pressure. He entered the week ninth with a 78.4% well-thrown rate when under pressure, while Stafford was 22nd with a 73.5 percentage that ranked below the NFL average mark (76.1%).
But Stafford has taken better care of the ball in those situations with the third-best pickable pass percentage in the league (2.55). Maye ranked 15th with a 4.32% pickable pass rate.
With the top seed in the AFC on the line, Maye should have one more opportunity to pad his resume against the visiting Miami Dolphins in Week 18. After facing the Falcons, Stafford and the Rams host the woeful Arizona Cardinals in their finale.
Jacksonville Jaguars
It wasn’t easy but the Jaguars stayed on top in the AFC South with their seventh straight win – 23-17 at the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
If the Jags can get past the 3-13 Tennessee Titans in Week 18, they’ll win their first division title since 2022 and only their third crown since 2000. Their 12 wins are also the franchise’s most since it finished 12-4 in 2005.
Jacksonville also still has an outside shot at coming away as the No. 1 seed in the AFC if certain scenarios fall its way in the final week.
Trevor Lawrence and the team’s defense have been the catalysts for this turnaround after the Jaguars were just 5-4 heading into Week 11. Lawrence threw his first interception since Week 12 on Sunday, but he still has 12 touchdowns and just the one pick over his last five games.
The Jags have allowed a league-low 15.6 points over their seven-game winning streak.
Philadelphia Eagles
It’s tough to blame anyone who wasn’t sold on the Eagles being back to form after consecutive victories over the two-win Las Vegas Raiders and four-win Washington Commanders.
But a 13-12 road win over the Buffalo Bills is something to feel good about. The Philadelphia defense, in particular, put together an impressive showing in a steady downpour.
It held James Cook to under 3.7 yards per carry on 20 attempts and stopped the Bills’ go-ahead two-point attempt with five seconds left to seal the win. Philly’s defense has given up a total of 30 points during the team’s three-game winning streak.
Jalen Carter entered Week 17 ranked seventh among defensive tackles with a 91.3 run defense rating, while Zack Baun ranked ninth among middle linebackers at 71.8.
Despite all their issues, the back-to-back NFC East champions have now won at least 11 games in each of the past four seasons.
Tyler Shough
Shough, a 2025 second-round pick of the New Orleans Saints, is starting to look like the team’s quarterback of the future.
After throwing for an average of 235.0 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions while the Saints went 1-3 in his first four starts, Shough has passed for 264.3 yards per game with four TDs and one pick while the Saints have won his last four.
Shough was 22 of 27 for 333 yards with two scores as New Orleans came back from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the Titans 34-26 on Sunday. He’s the first Saints’ first-year QB to throw for that many yards in a game since Aaron Brooks had 441 yards in December 2000 against the Denver Broncos.
He’s also rejuvenated the career of Chris Olave, who had 503 receiving yards and three touchdowns over his first eight games of the 2025 season. But since Shough took over in Week 9, the Ohio State product has totaled 660 yards and six TDs in his last eight games.
Olave entering the week ranked eighth in the NFL among WRs with an 88.0 route rating.
NFL Week 17 Losers
Buffalo Bills
With one errant Josh Allen throw, the Bills’ winning streak and AFC East title chances were wiped away. Allen’s misfire to an open Khalil Shakir on Buffalo’s go-ahead two-point try with five seconds left gave the Eagles a 13-12 road win.
The Bills, who had won four in a row, trailed 13-0 in steady rain before rallying late. Allen appeared to be limited after suffering an ankle injury earlier in the contest and his status should be worth monitoring ahead of Week 18.
Buffalo’s run of five straight division titles came to an end as it fell two games back of the Patriots with one to play.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It didn’t look like a very difficult task on paper. All the Steelers had to do was beat the 3-12 Cleveland Browns to clinch their first AFC North title since 2020.
Instead, Aaron Rodgers threw for just 168 yards and Pittsburgh just couldn’t get anything going offensively in a 13-6 loss at Cleveland that snapped the team’s three-game winning streak.
That, coupled with the Baltimore Ravens’ 41-24 road win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night, means the 9-7 Steelers and 8-8 Ravens will meet in Pittsburgh with the AFC North title on the line in Week 18.
It’s early, but the Opta supercomputer is already giving the Steelers a 54.6% probability of beating the Ravens.
Carolina Panthers
It was never going to be quite as easy for the Panthers, who needed to beat the 12-3 Seahawks at home to clinch their first NFC South title since 2015.
It wasn’t to be as the Seahawks cruised to a 27-10 victory that kept them on top in both the competitive NFC West and the race for the conference’s No. 1 seed. With 13 wins, the supercomputer gives them a 63.8% probability of holding off the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in the division.
Carolina’s loss sets up another de facto division title game. The NFC South will be decided in Week 18 when the 8-8 Panthers visit the 7-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are somehow still alive despite losing seven of their last eight games.
Perhaps that’s why the supercomputer has given the Panthers an early 62.8% probability of coming away with the victory in Tampa.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post The Biggest Winners and Losers of the NFL’s Week 17 appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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