Rams vs. Seahawks: Which Team Holds the Secret Weapon That Could Decide This Fierce Rivalry Clash?
Ah, the NFC West—where pride, playoff positioning, and bragging rights collide in a tangled gridiron dance. Now, here’s a curious nugget: while the division crown won’t be sealed this Thursday night, the team that walks off the field victorious will clutch the reins of the NFC West with just two games left in this intriguing 2025 NFL saga. Imagine that—a single game tipping the scale, not just for a title but for the coveted top seed in the conference, gifting the winner a golden ticket to a first-round bye and home-field supremacy through the playoffs. It’s almost like a game of chess being played at 100 miles per hour, with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, both sitting neck-and-neck at 11-3, battling for dominance. And as someone who’s seen seasons rise and fall, I can’t help but wonder—will history repeat with the Rams clinching another victory in Seattle, or will the Seahawks claw back to disrupt the status quo and send shockwaves through the division? Buckle up, because this isn’t just a game; it’s a high-stakes showdown teeming with drama.
The NFC West crown won’t be decided on Thursday Night Football, but the team that emerges victorious will take control of the division and have the inside track at the conference’s top seed with only two games left in the 2025 NFL season.
Rams vs. Seahawks: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer gives the Rams a 56.5% probability of beating the Seahawks (as of Wednesday).
- The Rams have won four of the last five meetings in Seattle, beginning with a 30-20 victory in a wild-card game during the 2020 season.
- The Seahawks are No. 1 in the NFL in overall scoring differential at plus-163, while the Rams rank second at +159.
The NFL saved perhaps the best Thursday Night Football matchup of the season for the finale of the standalone early slate.
The Week 16 opener features a high-stakes clash between a pair of division rivals who also happen to be tied for the best record in the NFC in the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
And while the NFC West crown won’t be decided Thursday in the Pacific Northwest, the team that emerges victorious will take control of the division and have the inside track at the conference’s top seed with only two games to play.
The Rams and Seahawks are both 11-3, but Los Angeles currently owns the tiebreaker, having won the first meeting in Southern California a month ago.
The Rams are also in possession of the coveted No. 1 seed in the NFC, giving them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Seahawks hold the first wild-card spot, meaning they have to go on the road to open the playoffs.
Los Angeles is the only NFC team to have already clinched a playoff berth, but Seattle could join them win a win – and also shake up the division race.
Coming off an 18-16 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, the Seahawks currently have a 25.5% chance of winning the NFC West, according to the Opta supercomputer, but those odds jump to 56.1% with a win. A loss, however, drops their likelihood of winning the West to 4.0%.
As for the Rams, their probability of winning a second consecutive division title stands at 61.3%. A win, and they’re looking at an 88.8% chance of repeating. A loss, though, drops them to 24.5%.
Rams’ Key to Victory vs. Seahawks
The Rams currently have the edge over the Seahawks thanks to a 21-19 victory in the first meeting in Week 11 – Seattle’s only blemish in its last nine games. Los Angeles escaped when Jason Myers’ 61-yard field goal attempt came up short and wide right on the game’s final play.
The Seahawks outgained the Rams 414-249 in total yards but didn’t reach the end zone until just 2:23 remaining as they were undone by Sam Darnold’s four interceptions.
Darnold is enjoying another solid season, ranking first in yards per attempt (8.80) and fifth in passer rating (102.0). However, he is also tied with the now benched Tua Tagovailoa for the most total turnovers (16) and has failed to throw a TD pass in three of his last five games.
Rams Player Projections
- QB Matthew Stafford: 22 of 33, 267 yards, 1 TD
- RB Kyren Williams: 14 carries for 61 yards, 1 TD
- WR Puka Nacua: 8 catches for 95 yards
- TE Colby Parkinson: 4 catches for 34 yards
That stretch began at SoFi Stadium last month when he was completely overwhelmed by the Los Angeles defense. The Rams did a couple of things to flummox Darnold and will likely employ a similar strategy this time around.
In the first meeting, Los Angeles constantly came after Darnold with additional pass rushers. Darnold attempted a single-game high 13 passes while being blitzed, while the Rams blitzed a season-high 51.1% of the time – one of only three games they’ve blitzed more than 40% of the time. On the season, they rank 20th in blitz rate at 30.0%.
Although Darnold wasn’t sacked in the first meeting, he also wasn’t able to get too comfortable in the pocket with Los Angeles bringing the extra pass rushers. The tactic that disrupted Darnold the most last month was simply playing a nickel defense.
When rolling with a fifth defensive back, Darnold struggled to move the ball, completing half of his 14 passes while throwing two interceptions and compiling a 30.1 quarterback rating. He also threw two picks when Los Angeles lined up in a different defensive look, but that came on more than double the number of throws (30) and resulted in a passer rating of 73.2.
Since safety Quentin Lake injured his elbow against the Seahawks last month, the Rams haven’t been playing as much nickel. (They’ve been lining up in nickel 36.9% of the time since Week 12 after being in nickel 44.8% of the time in Weeks 1-10, but it is still the defensive alignment they’re using most often.)
Despite playing less of it, Los Angeles is still one of the best teams at defending against the pass in nickel. Since Week 12 in the Rams’ four full games without Lake, their opponent pass success rate in nickel of 24.5% tops the NFL, while their 4.5 yards per pass allowed is tied for the third lowest.
Seahawks’ Key to Victory vs. Rams
One big reason for optimism for Seattle in the rematch is that just as the Rams stymied Darnold, the Seahawks did the same to Matthew Stafford.
As the NFL leader in both touchdown passes (37) and quarterback rating (112.2), the 37-year-old Stafford is on the short list of MVP candidates for the 2025 season.
Stafford’s worst game of the season, however, came against the Seahawks, when he had season lows of 15 completions, 130 yards and 4.64 yards per attempt. He did throw two touchdowns – on 1- and 6-yard throws – with only four completions going for more than 10 yards.
Making things difficult for Stafford and the passing game this week is that Davante Adams, who is second in the NFL in route rating (measures the ability of WRs to win routes), appears unlikely to play after aggravating a hamstring injury in Sunday’s 41-34 victory over the Detroit Lions.
If there’s any silver lining for Stafford being without the NFL’s touchdown reception leader, it’s that Adams wasn’t much of a factor in the first meeting.
Seahawks Player Projections
- QB Sam Darnold: 21 of 30, 254 yards, 1 TD
- RB Kenneth Walker III: 14 carries for 65 yards
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6 catches for 100 yards
- TE AJ Barner: 4 catches for 35 yards
He did catch one of his 14 touchdowns on a quick 1-yard pass in the first quarter to put the Rams up 14-3, but that was his only reception despite being targeted eight times. Only one of the passes directed to him was dropped, while Stafford didn’t give him much of a chance on many of the others with inaccurate throws.
One reason Stafford threw so many errant passes is that Seattle’s defense hounded him with a relentless pass rush.
Led by one of the NFL’s most formidable defensive tackle duos in Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams, the Seahawks rank first in pressure rate at 53.2%. In the first matchup, they registered a pressure rate of 67.9% – their second-highest single-game mark of the season behind a 68.0% achieved the following week in a 30-24 win over the Tennessee Titans.
Although Seattle didn’t notch a single sack – the only game this season the Seahawks, who rank fourth in the NFL with 42, didn’t get one – the team pressured Stafford on 19 of his 28 passes. DeMarcus Lawrence was credited with seven pressures and Williams had four. Uchenna Nwosu batted down one pass at the line of scrimmage with Josh Jobe, Nick Emmanwori and Riq Woolen each defending one pass in coverage.
Stafford completed just 9 of his 19 passes while being pressured, averaging only 3.42 yards per attempt and a 55.8 passer rating. On his nine throws when he wasn’t pressured, he completed six passes with an average of 7.22 yards and a QB rating of 87.7.
It’s no big surprise to see a quarterback have trouble throwing when under pressure, but Stafford struggled more than usual against Seattle. He had a well-thrown percentage of 52.9 against the Seahawks, compared to a well-thrown percentage of 77.4 when throwing under pressure in all other games this season.
Allowing an NFL-low 5.96 yards per attempt, Seattle is the toughest team to move the ball against through the air. Much of that success also stems from the pressure up front, which Stafford found out in the last meeting.
Rams vs. Seahawks Prediction
So much is riding on this game, and the Opta supercomputer gives the Rams the edge with a 56.5% probability of winning this showdown in Seattle.
The Rams have won four of the last five meetings in the Pacific Northwest, beginning with a 30-20 victory in an NFC wild-card game at the end of the 20202 season. The Seahawks, though, enter this one having won four straight home games, and haven’t won five in a row at Lumen Field since 2020.
The Rams have also had Darnold’s number since the start of last season, winning all three games they’ve played against him. That includes a 27-9 victory over the Minnesota Vikings in a wild-card game this past January.
Darnold is 25-4 against all other teams since the start of 2024.
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The post Rams vs. Seahawks Predictions: Who Will Win This Highly Anticipated Showdown Between Division Rivals? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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