Why Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs Are Doomed to Torment the Thunder Again Tuesday

Tuesday’s NBA slate offers a rare gem beyond the usual football frenzy: the San Antonio Spurs (27-12) locking horns with the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7) for their fourth clash this season. Unusual? Absolutely — five meetings in one season is a twist you don’t see often, born from their NBA Cup semifinal showdown earlier this year. Now here’s the kicker — despite the Thunder sitting pretty with a 33-7 record, the Spurs are 3-0 against them, dominating on home turf, neutral courts in Vegas, and even in Oklahoma City, boasting a hefty +12.3 scoring margin. But here’s a question that’s been bouncing in my head: can the Thunder shake off their struggle against the spread and finally crack the code, or will San Antonio’s knack for neutralizing OKC’s key weapons continue to tilt the scales? With Victor Wembanyama anchoring Spurs’ defense and the intriguing duel between him and Thunder’s Chet Holmgren simmering, this matchup isn’t just another game — it’s a cerebral chess match where every possession counts. Ready to dive deeper into the nuances and potential outcomes? LEARN MORE.

Tuesday is a rare occasion when the NBA has a good game on a non-football day, when the San Antonio Spurs (27-12) face the Oklahoma City Thunder (33-7). This will be their fourth of five meetings. Usually, teams play at most four times in a season, but we get another Spurs-Thunder game because they met in the 2025 NBA Cup semifinals earlier this season.

OKC would still be on pace to win 70+ games if it didn’t have to play San Antonio, which is 3-0 in their head-to-heads. The Spurs have beaten the Thunder at home, on a neutral floor (the NBA Cup semifinals and finals were in Las Vegas), and in Oklahoma City. San Antonio has a +12.3 scoring margin in those games.

The Thunder are still winning games, but aren’t covering spreads. They are 7-3 straight up over their last 10 games compared to 3-7 against the spread (ATS), including five consecutive ATS losses. The Spurs have covered three straight games but blew a 19-point lead in a 104-103 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their previous outing.

Subject to change. Updated: 12:40 p.m. ET, Tuesday, January 13.

Honestly, I feel like this is a “sucker play,” but I’m still taking the points with San Antonio. Per Pregame.com, roughly 75% of the money is on the Spurs at the time of writing, yet, the Thunder has gone from -6.5 favorite to the current odds. I’m dismissing this line movement because I’ve gotten “closing line value” in the NBA over the past two seasons, and I’m down money.

San Antonio neutralizes OKC’s three biggest strengths: Forcing turnovers, getting to the foul line, and athleticism. The Spurs are sixth in offensive turnover rate, third in points per game allowed off turnovers, and first in defensive FT/FGA rate. Oklahoma City physically overwhelms most teams, but not San Antonio.

Also, the Thunder’s half-court offense is suspect if they aren’t getting to the charity stripe. They are averaging 15.7 free-throw attempts in their three games vs. the Spurs, but OKC averages 24.4 free-throw attempts on the season. Essentially, it’s easier to play perimeter defense when you have the best defensive player in the world, Victor Wembanyama, protecting the paint.

Lastly, this matchup means a little more to Wemby. After beating Oklahoma City on Christmas, Wembanyama told reporters: “You don’t lose to a team three times in a row, in a short span, without them being better than you”. Thunder big Chet Holmgren is considered Wemby’s contemporary, but Chet is scoring 11.3 points per game on 40.7% shooting vs. San Antonio this season.

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