Inside the Sony Open: Which Rising Star Could Dominate the PGA TOUR in 2026?

Golf betting season is back, and just in time for the 2026 PGA TOUR kickoff at the Sony Open in sunny Honolulu. Now, if you’ve never felt the nail-biting thrill of sweating out a Friday cut or the euphoric rush of cashing an outright win in golf betting, trust me—you’re missing out on one of sports betting’s finest highs. This year’s Sony Open brought an unexpected twist—the usual curtain-raiser, The Sentry at Kapalua, bit the dust thanks to a water rights battle, making Waialae’s field one of the strongest in recent memory, packed with top-tier talent and major champs. With Waialae’s famously short but tricky layout, this tournament’s drama factor is sky-high—playoffs and one-stroke finishes practically spell the norm. As I dive into my fourth betting season, tweaking strategies and chasing that sweet 20-unit profit mark per outright, I’m here to walk you through my picks, my thought process, and, of course, the quirks that make this course and field so tantalizing. Ready to see who’s got the irons hot and who’s just banking on putting? Strap in—this season’s a wild ride. LEARN MORE

My favorite hobby, betting on golf, returns this week, and the 2026 PGA TOUR season begins with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. Take my word for it, there is nothing like sweating out a Friday cut, and cashing an outright in golf is the best feeling in sports betting.

The Sony has a stronger field than usual this year because the traditional first tournament of the season, The Sentry at Kapalua, has been canceled due to a political battle over water rights in West Maui. Among the 120 teeing it up at Waialae are nine of the top 25 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), including several major champions and 2025 Ryder Cuppers.

Regardless of the field, the Sony Open usually produces thrilling finishes. Four of the last six Sony Opens went to a playoff, and the other two were decided by one stroke. Plus, since Waialae is one of the shortest courses on TOUR, it allows any type of player to win here. Plodders, bombers, short-game specialists, etc.

This is my fourth season betting on the PGA TOUR, and I’m still tinkering with my process. Until further notice, I’m betting to profit 20 units (u) per outright this season and backing them up with placement (top-five, 10, and 20) bets. In the spirit of transparency, I’ll update my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll after every tournament. Let’s get into my looks for Waialae.

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they are subject to change.

He was in the mix to win the 2025 Sony Open before ejecting in the final round. Through the first three rounds, McNealy was three strokes behind the leader and shot a final-round 73 (+3). Maverick was the No. 1-ranked amateur in the world in 2017 and took a while to live up to expectations.

But he started to find his groove on TOUR last season. He had six top-10 finishes, including second at the Genesis Invitational, T3 at the RBC Heritage, and T5 at the Memorial Tournament, all signature events.

Also, McNealy was T7 at the 2023 Sony Open, and has played well at comp courses to Waialae, such as Harbour Town, host of the RBC Heritage, Sea Island, host of The RSM Classic, where Maverick won his only TOUR event in 2024, a T5 and second at Pebble Beach in 2020-21.

Ultimately, McNealy is one of the best putters in the world, and Waialae is an easy course tee-to-green. If his red-hot iron-play at the end of last season carries into this year, then Maverick could putt his way to victory at Waialae.

The SMU alum kept his game sharp through the 2025 FedExCup Fall season. Meissner made the cut in all five fall events, including a T14 at The RSM Classic. He gained strokes with his irons and putter in his four starts with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com.

In his final tournament of the 2025 regular season, Meissner finished second at the Wyndham Championship at a comp course to Waialae. He is only 26 years old, so the sample size is small, but Meissner has played well at other crossover courses, such as Sea Island (The RSM Classic) and Colonial Country Club (T5 at the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge).

He finished T21 in his first Sony Open last season, and he was fourth in the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, which is the most predictive stat in golf. Obviously, this bet is “price dependent,” and I prefer my top-20 bet on Meissner. However, he has the game to break through this season, and his style fits this course.

We are getting a good price on Billy Ho because he is 11th in my mixed condition model at Betsperts Golf. Horschel has more “win equity” than a lot of the guys with better odds. He’s a 10-time international winner: Eight on the PGA TOUR and twice on the DP World (European) Tour.

Billy Ho missed most of last season with an injury but was playing well at the end of 2024, with a T2 at The Open Championship and a win at the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour, and he enters 2026 healthy.

More importantly, Horschel’s game fits this course. He is short but accurate off the tee, an elite putter, especially on Bermudagrass greens, and can spike with his irons. Horschel missed the cut at the 2025 Sony Open. However, he has a bunch of strong performances at comp courses to Waialae, and at this price, is worth betting.

To give you an idea of how badly Kim’s 2025 season went, he was the third-betting favorite for this tournament at +1800 last year and finished T65. He is a three-time PGA TOUR winner and was expected to take the next step last season. Instead, Kim only had two top-20 finishes last regular season: T7 at Pebble Beach and T17 at the Genesis Scottish Open.

Maybe he’s bad now, but I’m overlooking Kim’s awful 2025 at this price because he’s still just 23 years old and his game is perfect for this place. One of his wins came at the Sedgefield Country Club (2022 Wyndham), the most similar course to Waialae. They require precision with your mid-irons and driving accuracy, two of Kim’s strengths, if he is playing well.

These odds are disrespectful. Campbell was +20000 at the 2025 Sony Open, won twice last season, and is +25000. I know this year’s Sony Open field is harder, but it doesn’t make sense that Campbell’s odds are higher this season.

He won twice last year, the Mexico Open and the John Deere Classic. Granted, those were on driver-heavy courses, but Waialae fits his game better. It’s a small, positional course, and Campbell was 21st in driving accuracy but averaged the fewest yards off-the-tee on TOUR in 2025.

Most of the approach shots at Waialae are from 150-175 yards, and Campbell ranks 10th in this field in proximity from the hole at that distance over the year. Finally, the 32-year-old withdrew from the 2025 Sony Open after the first round, but he shot a 67 (-3) and was second in the field in SG: Approach.

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This is my third season playing in the “Race for the Mayo Cup,” which has a $1.2 million prize pool, pays down 750 places, and awards $110,000 to the winner. Last season, I finished 21st and won $6,000 after finishing 1,965th place two years ago.

The bottom line: McNealy is good enough to use but not good enough to save. He is 22nd in the OWGR, and there are 31 events in the Mayo Cup. But, since this is the first tournament of the year, we don’t have recent data on these guys, and I’ve never made money betting on him, so I’m not saving Maverick for a major or signature event.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.