Unlock Hidden DFS Gold: RJ Harvey and Kyren Williams Poised to Dominate NFL Divisional Round DraftKings Lineups

When gearing up for this weekend’s Divisional Round of DraftKings, I can’t stress enough how crucial it is to build lineups that tell a convincing story. Trust me, if you’re stepping into a contest swarmed with tens or even hundreds of thousands of competitors, hedging won’t cut it. You’ve gotta commit fully — envision your lineup as if you know exactly how the game will unfold. It’s not just about stacking players who look good on paper; it’s about weaving a narrative that holds up under pressure.

Think about this: If a quarterback and his main receiving threats explode, who else on the opposing offense is poised to capitalize? Or if a running back dominates in a run-heavy game plan, that usually sidelines the quarterback and wideouts when it comes to DFS points. And if the game script tilts toward a team playing catch-up, leading to lots of passing attempts, does that running back have a role in the air game? These questions are your foundation — they guide you in crafting high-variance rosters that either skyrocket or flop spectacularly in large-field DraftKings battles.

Dive into the nuances of pass and run funnel matchups, figure out who’s poised to thrive, and lock in those team and game stacks that tell the right tale for victory.

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My best advice for those building DraftKings lineups for this weekend’s Divisional Round games would be to take a narrative-based approach.

Make sure your lineups tell a story, especially if you’re entering said lineup in a DraftKings contest with tens or hundreds of thousands of entries. Piece together a lineup as if you are correct. Don’t hedge.

Asking yourself some simple questions is a good place to start. If this quarterback and his two primary pass catchers go off, who on the other offense is likely to at least get a chance to go off? If a running back goes ballistic and a team is ultra run-heavy, that probably means the team’s QB and pass catchers won’t get there for DFS purposes. If your story includes a team facing negative (trailing) game script — the kind that generates lots of drop backs — it makes little sense to use the running back without a solid role in the pass game.

Think narratively in your lineup construction and I think you’ll make the sort of high variance lineups that either tank or explode in large-field DraftKings contests. Below are some thoughts about pass and run funnel matchups and who is most likely to benefit, along with ideas for team and game stacks.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs. LA Rams

Game total: 48.5 points

Now that Ben Johnson has done what he was hired to do — beat Green Bay, embarrass their head coach, and publicly and loudly express his disdain for the Packers franchise — he has (almost) nothing to lose in the Divisional Round against a superior Rams team that has appeared unstoppable at times this season.

For DraftKings DFS purposes, there’s not much chance you’re going to win the monies in large-field tournaments by fading this game, featuring the week’s highest total thanks largely to two high-octane offenses and suspect defenses that can and have been exploited in recent weeks. There are different ways to stack this game, but fading it is too cute by half, and as folks learned this season on my Friday YouTube Q&A’s, we don’t get too cute (this is where I tell you the Chicago weather at kickoff will feel like six degrees with possible snow flurries, and that Johnson is reportedly conducting practice outdoors all week, much to his players’ chagrin).

There’s not a whole lot to say about the Rams offense since it involves so few players: Puka Nacua and Davante Adams usually see around 70 percent of the team’s air yards along with 60 percent of the targets, and the LA tight ends get a smattering of looks if the Rams are forced to lean toward the pass.

Terrance Ferguson is expected back this week after missing the Wild Card round with a hamstring issue. This complicates an already complicated tight end situation, as Tyler Higbee last week returned to the Rams lineup and ran 20 routes to Colby Parkinson’s 24 routes (they both saw three targets and Parkinson caught a touchdown). All three LA tight ends could see decent route participation against the Bears if the Rams revert to their league-leading use of three tight end sets. Playing the right Rams tight end is something of a crap shoot against a Chicago defense that allowed just 7.1 tight end targets per game in the regular season. All of them are certain to have bottom-barrel rostership in DraftKings tournaments.

The contrarian approach to this game would run through each team’s run game if you believe the horrifically cold conditions will stifle the passing attacks. It’s not a bad spot for Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. They square off against a Chicago defense giving up the league’s highest rate of rush yards before contact since Week 11. Only five defenses gave up a higher rushing success rate than the Bears over the regular season’s final seven weeks. Chicago’s front seven is particularly vulnerable to man/gap rushing schemes, which the Rams run at a top-seven rate. Against man/gap rushes, the Bears are allowing a 59.5 percent success rate, the third highest in the NFL.

Know that Williams will have significantly higher rostership than Corum and consider working one of the Rams backs into your Divisional Round lineups as a pivot off the hyper-popular LA passing game weapons.

Colston Loveland’s domination of the Chicago passing offense is, well, stunning. Over the team’s past two outings the rookie has 28 targets; no other Bears pass catcher has more than ten. Loveland leads the team in pass routes over those two games and he’s seen a target on 36 percent of those routes, an absurd rate that is usually reserved for the league’s elite wideouts. Loveland totaled a dozen first-read targets in the Wild Card round, the most of any pass catcher in any offense last week.

Though the Rams have shut down slot pass catchers since midseason — allowing the league’s fourth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets — Loveland will be tough to fade on a four-game slate.

The Rams are neither a pass nor a run funnel defense. LA opponents have passed at a 57 percent neutral clip this season, close to the league average. I would expect Ben Johnson — coaching a Chicago offense with a fairly low 50 percent neutral pass rate since Week 11 — to lean toward the run here, putting D’Andre Swift in play and making Kyle Monangai a touchdown-dependent tournament option on DraftKings. Swift and Monangai are largely splitting routes and targets, and Swift has been far more efficient with his opportunities over the past month.

A full stack of this game would look something like this: Stafford-Nacua-Adams-Rams TE along with Loveland. A skinny stack would be something like: Nacua and Loveland or a Rams running back along with Loveland.

Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Game total: 46 points

Buffalo’s Wild Card win against the Jaguars should be at least somewhat instructive here since Jacksonville’s defense is one of the only a couple defenses that’s a more extreme pass funnel than Denver.

The Bills last week were 3 percent over their expected pass rate (and 12 percent over that rate on first downs). It’s quite the contrast to how they operated in the regular season, when they were 3 percent below their expected pass rate overall and -11 percent on first downs. Buffalo’s 57 percent neutral pass rate against Jacksonville was well above their regular season rate of 51 percent. The Bills had 270 team air yards against the Jaguars; it was one of their highest air yards outputs of the year.

We’ll see more of the same in the Divisional Round against a Broncos defense that faced the NFL’s fourth highest pass rate over expected. Denver opponents averaged 283 total team air yards per game in the regular season, the fifth highest mark in the NFL.

Josh Allen has a decidedly bad matchup against a top-end Broncos coverage unit, which might keep his rostership somewhat suppressed on DraftKings. I think it’s worth leaning into that uncertainty if only because the Bills are likely to once again be more pass heavy than usual.

That, I think, makes James Cook a reasonable fade for a second straight week. If you’re betting Allen and the Bills will be pass heavy and you know Cook has next to no pass-game involvement, what is Cook’s path to success? A long run or a multi-touchdown game. That’s about it. Against a Denver defense allowing the seventh lowest rate of rush yards before contact and the fifth lowest rate of explosive runs, I see that as a thin bet.

That leaves Buffalo’s pass catchers to stack alongside Allen. Last week against the Jaguars, Khalil Shakir led the team with 12 catches on 12 targets for 86 yards, a true-blue PPR scam if I’ve ever seen one. Ten of Shakir’s 12 targets were of the first-read variety. He’s a must-play if you’re intent on stacking Buffalo’s offense.

Brandin Cooks, somehow, was second on the team last week with five first read targets. Cooks absolutely dominated air yards (42 percent share) as Allen’s go-to downfield option, and now faces a Broncos defense that allowed the NFL’s second highest rate of downfield throws in the regular season. The back-from-the-dead veteran makes almost too much sense as an Allen stacking partner. Tyrell Shavers’ season-ending knee injury will give Cooks every chance to be an air yards eater against the pass-funnel Denver defense.

That Dalton Kincaid is still only running half the team’s routes makes him an iffy Allen stacking option. His per-route efficiency could make it work, however, if you’re ready to go all in on the Buffalo passing offense.

Bo Nix and the Broncos square off an increasingly run-funnel Bills defense that has seen opponents run the ball at a 48 percent clip in neutral situations since Week 10. Buffalo’s gashable front seven offered little resistance to the Jaguars last weekend, allowing 155 yards on 23 carries (6.7 yards per carry). Jacksonville led all Wild Card offenses in rushing success rate against the Bills.

Follow this thread and you might wind up with no choice but to click RJ Harvey’s name in DraftKings lineups for the Divisional Round. Harvey over the Broncos’ past two games leads Jaleel McLaughin 29 to 13 in rushing attempts and 10 to one in targets. This isn’t to say Harvey is a lock for 20 touches. He’s not. Thankfully he’s the kind of back who can get there with 15-18 touches, and I’m not sure he’ll be a mega-chalk DraftKings option.

I’m not at all bullish on the Broncos passing offense here. Against two high safety looks — which the Bills play at one of the NFL’s highest rates — Bo Nix ranks 31st out of 40 qualifying QBs in accuracy and 27th in adjusted yards per attempt. Nix throws it deep at a meager 11 percent clip against two high safety looks — a tendency that could make it tough for Courtland Sutton to see much in the way of deep shots (and air yards) against Buffalo. Pat Bryant, who has a 6.5 average depth of target over his past four games, could be a primary beneficiary of Nix’s check downs against shell coverage.

A full stack of this game would look something like this: Allen-Shakir-Cooks-Kincaid along with Harvey. A skinny stack would be something like: Shakir or Cooks along with Harvey and/or Bryant.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Game total: 45 points

The Hawks went ultra-giga-nuclear run heavy in both regular season matchups against the Niners. In Week 1, Seattle was 8.5 percent below its expected pass rate and in Week 18 they were 7 percent below. The latter resulted in a 180-yard rushing explosion: 97 yards on 16 carries for Ken Walker and 74 yards on 17 rushes for Zach Charbonnet.

The Seahawks’ pass rate goes from 54 percent in neutral situations to a lowly 44 percent when they have a lead. So if you’re betting Seattle will play from ahead in the Divisional Round, there will be precious little target volume for anyone not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba and there could be 30-40 rushing attempts to split between Walker and Charbonnet. That Charbs has been the Seahawks’ primary inside-the-ten back for the entire season probably means he has more upside than Walker.

Seattle’s defense is neither a pass nor a run funnel. They’re just good. It’s been tough to find an angle against Mike Macdonald’s defense, which allows the NFL’s fourth lowest rushing success rate and the lowest drop back success rate. That won’t stop me though.

Here’s something: Seattle has faced the league’s highest rate of check-down passes in 2025 (11.5 percent). That could (should) translate to lots of looks for Christian McCaffrey and Jake Tonges, who takes over for George Kittle after his devastating Achilles injury last week against the Eagles. That, I think, is the best way to play the Niners offense: Expect lots of short throws from Brock Purdy. That would necessarily eliminate Demarcus Robinson as a (chalky) DFS option after he went berserk against the Eagles (111 yards on seven targets while leading the Niners with a 37 percent air yards share).

A full stack of this game would look something like this: Purdy-Tonges-CMC along with JSN and/or a Seattle running back. A skinny stack would be something like: JSN and CMC or Tonges, or perhaps JSN and a Seattle back with Tonges or CMC.

New England Patriots (-3) vs. Houston Texans

Game total: 41

If you want to get different in large-field DraftKings contests this weekend you are looking powerfully into stacking this game, even if it feels bad, even if it makes no sense to your rational mind. Tell that thing to quiet down.

A surface level look at the Patriots defense’s performance against the run would tell you they can be had on the ground. Some context is necessary though: New England’s last week got a lot healthier in ways that proved disastrous for the Chargers rushing attack. Pats DE Milton Williams came off of injured reserve and wreaked havoc against LA. The Bolts had the week’s second lowest rush EPA and by far the week’s lowest rushing success rate. A run defense that had been beatable became unstoppable. That makes sense, as the Pats were nails against the run before Milton and other defenders missed time with injury. When healthy the Patriots are frighteningly good against the rush.

So yeah, I’m hesitant to go in on Woody Marks a week after he led the Texans backfield with 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown (while Nick Chubb had 10 rushes). Marks is running around 40 percent of the team’s routes and last week against LA saw just one target. He’s had more than three targets in a game just three times this season. Marks, I think, is a reasonable fade in large-field contests this week.

Christian Kirk, as Kyle Dvorchak said on Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show, has all the trappings of horrific chalk in the Divisional Round. After going for 144 yards and a touchdown — while being targeted on 38 percent of his routes — Kirk will be wildly popular at his price point. Be careful with Kirk, especially if Nico Collins (concussion) is able to suit up.

Drake Maye and New England’s pass catchers are going to have their DraftKings rostership hugely suppressed in a hideous little matchup against this Houston defense (ask Aaron Rodgers about the Texans after he had the worst QB postseason outing since at least 2013 in the Wild Card round). Stacking Maye with his pass catchers would certainly be weird and make your lineup unique.

This would obviously include Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry. It could also include Rhamondre Stevenson, who keeps churning out pass game production as the Pats’ primary route-running backfield option.

A full stack of this game would look something like this: Maye-Diggs-Stevenson-Henry along with Collins if he plays. A skinny stack would be something like: Diggs or Henry or Stevenson along with Collins or Kirk if you’re OK with the chalk.