Inside the NBA’s Future: The Opta Supercomputer’s Shocking Playoff Bracket Predictions Revealed
Halfway through the 2025-26 NBA season, the landscape is as wild and unpredictable as ever. Why do the Phoenix Suns somehow shine brighter without Kevin Durant lighting up the court? Could the rivalry brewing between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs redefine the Western Conference? Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference prompts its own set of puzzles—are the Detroit Pistons the new overlords, or is Boston’s resilience without Jayson Tatum just smoke and mirrors? Against the backdrop of the Thunder’s championship glory and unexpected rises and falls from last season’s contenders, the question remains: Who’s sprinting toward glory, who’s edging into the play-in battles, and who’s packing their bags for an early offseason retreat? Let’s let the Opta supercomputer do the talking and unravel the mysteries of what the next months hold. LEARN MORE.
With most teams right around the halfway point of the NBA season, we’re revealing the supercomputer’s projected playoff teams, play-in teams and those whose players will be heading home at the season’s end.
In the West, we’re wondering why the Phoenix Suns are better without Kevin Durant and whether Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs is the league’s next great rivalry.
Are the Detroit Pistons the new kings of the Eastern Conference? How have the Boston Celtics continued to win without Jayson Tatum? And are the Toronto Raptors the conference’s most surprising team?
As a result of a wild first half of the 2025-26 NBA season, many new questions have arisen since the Thunder lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were 34-5 on this date a year ago on their way to a 64-18 finish, but they’ve had a disappointing 2025-26 season so far. At 23-19 heading into Friday’s action, the Cavs have the second-largest decline in winning percentage since the end of last season.
Of course, the Indiana Pacers, who reached the NBA Finals but lost star Tyrese Haliburton to a season-ending injury, have endured the biggest fall from .610 (50-32) to .220 (9-32).
On the flip side, the Raptors were 10-31 on Jan. 15, 2025, but they’ve been one of the league’s biggest success stories at 25-17 in 2025-26. Toronto’s jump in winning percentage (plus-.229) since last season is the NBA’s largest, well ahead of the next-best Denver Nuggets (+.073).
Other things, however, have remained the same. For all the talk about the defending champ’s great 35-7 start, the Thunder were equally impressive a year ago with a 33-6 record.
Where does all that leave us as we look ahead to the rest of 2025-26?
With most teams right around the 41-game halfway point of the season, we’re asking the Opta supercomputer to give us the projected playoff teams, play-in teams and those who will get an early trip to Cabo at the season’s end.
Projected Western Conference Playoffs
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Current Record (through Jan. 15): 35-7
- Projected Final Record: 66-16
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: <100%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 54.7%
Trending: The Thunder have 15 wins by at least 20 points in 2025-26 after Thursday’s victory, surpassing last year’s team for the most 20-point wins pre-All-Star break in franchise history. No other team in the NBA has more than nine such wins this year.
2. San Antonio Spurs
- Current Record: 28-13
- Projected Final Record: 54-28
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 97.5%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 11.6%
Trending: Victor Wembanyama has 28 career games with at least five blocks and multiple 3-point field goals. That’s already the most such games in NBA history.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Current Record: 27-14
- Projected Final Record: 53-29
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 96.4%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 13.3%
Trending: Naz Reid has hit 99 3s to lead all centers in made triples this season. Reid can become the sixth player to record three consecutive seasons with 100+ 3s in franchise history (Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Andrew Wiggins, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley).
4. Denver Nuggets
- Current Record: 28-13
- Projected Final Record: 51-31
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 92.8%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.2%
Trending: Denver leads the NBA in field-goal percentage (50.2%) and 3-point percentage (40.3%) this season. The Nuggets are looking to become the first team to lead the league in both categories since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors.
5. Phoenix Suns
- Current Record: 24-17
- Projected Final Record: 49-33
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 90.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.1%
Trending: Phoenix has notched 10 or more steals in a league-high 26 games after finishing with 14 in Thursday’s road loss to the Detroit Pistons. It is already the Suns’ most games with 10+ steals in a single season since they did so in 29 games in 2021-22.
6. Houston Rockets
- Current Record: 23-15
- Projected Final Record: 49-33
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 85.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 4.1%
Trending: The Rockets lost to the Thunder on Thursday night, snapping their seven-game home winning streak that dated back to Nov. 21. They had been the league’s only undefeated team at home over that span.
Projected West Play-In Tournament
7. Golden State Warriors
- Current Record: 23-19
- Projected Final Record: 46-36
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 77.7%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.4%
Trending: Golden State’s bench unit is averaging 43.0 points per game, ranking fourth in the NBA behind the Memphis Grizzlies (46.8), Chicago Bulls (44.3) and Washington Wizards (43.1).
8. Los Angeles Lakers
- Current Record: 24-15
- Projected Final Record: 43-39
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 48.6%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.5%
Trending: Need a reason why the supercomputer projects the Lakers to finish in the play-tournament? Look no further than their negative point differential. They rank 17th at minus-0.4 per game, just behind the 15-26 Charlotte Hornets.
9. Los Angeles Clippers
- Current Record: 17-23
- Projected Final Record: 41-41
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 50.8%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 2.5%
Trending: After a woeful start, the Clippers are an NBA-best 11-2 since Dec. 20 after a 119-105 win over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night.
10. Portland Trail Blazers
- Current Record: 20-22
- Projected Final Record: 41-41
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 43.7%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.5%
Trending: Caleb Love has been a nice surprise for the Blazers, draining multiple 3-pointers in each of his last 13 games. That streak is four games longer than any other streak by a Trail Blazers rookie in team history (2012-13 Damian Lillard – eight).
West Teams Headed to the Lottery
11. Memphis Grizzlies
- Current Record: 17-23
- Projected Final Record: 36-46
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.0%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
12. Dallas Mavericks
- Current Record: 16-26
- Projected Final Record: 31-51
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 2.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
13. Utah Jazz
- Current Record: 14-27
- Projected Final Record: 28-54
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
14. Sacramento Kings
- Current Record: 11-30
- Projected Final Record: 25-57
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
15. New Orleans Pelicans
- Current Record: 10-33
- Projected Final Record: 22-60
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Projected Eastern Conference Playoffs
1. Detroit Pistons
- Current Record: 29-10
- Projected Final Record: 56-26
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.7%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 27.3%
Trending: The Pistons had won 22 straight games when holding opponents under 100 points over the past three seasons before falling 98-92 to the Clippers on Saturday.
2. Boston Celtics
- Current Record: 25-15
- Projected Final Record: 52-30
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 97.5%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 26.8%
Trending: After a 5-7 start without Tatum, who is recovering from a torn Achilles, the Celtics have gone 28-20 heading into Friday’s action. That’s tied with the previously mentioned Pistons for the best record in the Eastern Conference since Nov. 12.
3. New York Knicks
- Current Record: 25-16
- Projected Final Record: 47-35
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 87.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.3%
Trending: The Knicks had the second-best record in the East at 23-9 on Dec. 29. Since then, they’ve dropped seven of their last nine – including Thursday’s 126-113 road loss to the Warriors. Making matters worse, Jalen Brunson is day-to-day with an ankle injury.
4. Toronto Raptors
- Current Record: 25-17
- Projected Final Record: 46-36
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 84.3%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.3%
Trending: One of Toronto’s main weaknesses is 3-point shooting (28th in the NBA). The Raptors shot 16.2% or lower from long range in back-to-back games against the Philadelphia 76ers on Jan. 11 and 12 and have hit just 25.8% from deep over their last five contests.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Current Record: 23-19
- Projected Final Record: 46-36
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 84.0%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 10.0%
Trending: The news isn’t great for the Cavs after two-time All-Star Darius Garland suffered a foot injury in Wednesday’s win over the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s doubtful to play in the rematch on Friday. The Cavs are 10-6 without Garland so far this season.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
- Current Record: 22-17
- Projected Final Record: 45-37
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 83.8%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.0%
Trending: Philadelphia’s starters are averaging 84.5 points per game. That ranks seventh in the NBA and is the 76ers’ highest single-season mark since they averaged 84.6 points in 1985-86.
Projected East Play-In Tournament
7. Miami Heat
- Current Record: 21-20
- Projected Final Record: 45-37
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 79.3%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 7.5%
Trending: Norman Powell leads the Heat with 837 points in his first season with Miami. The only players to score more points in their first 35 games with the Heat were Alonzo Mourning (858) and LeBron James (855).
8. Orlando Magic
- Current Record: 23-18
- Projected Final Record: 43-39
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 70.0%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 2.4%
Trending: Paolo Banchero led the Magic outright in both points (26) and rebounds (13) against Memphis on Thursday, his 31st time doing so with Orlando. Since his career began with the team in 2022-23, the Magic player with the next-most such games is Franz Wagner with 10.
9. Atlanta Hawks
- Current Record: 20-23
- Projected Final Record: 40-42
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 45.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.4%
Trending: Each of the Hawks’ last 10 games has been decided by 10 or more points. (They’ve gone 5-5 in those games.) That is the second-longest such streak this season (Toronto, 11) – and Atlanta’s second-longest streak in franchise history (11 in November 1969).
10. Charlotte Hornets
- Current Record: 15-26
- Projected Final Record: 38-44
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 42.2%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 5.5%
Trending: The Hornets have scored 130+ points in seven games this season (tied for eighth in the NBA). That is already Charlotte’s second-most games with 130+ points in a single season all time (10 in 2021-22).
East Teams Headed to the Lottery
11. Chicago Bulls
- Current Record: 19-21
- Projected Final Record: 35-47
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 17.3%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.3%
12. Milwaukee Bucks
- Current Record: 17-24
- Projected Final Record: 33-49
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 8.2%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
13. Brooklyn Nets
- Current Record: 11-27
- Projected Final Record: 26-56
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 1.0%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
14. Indiana Pacers
- Current Record: 9-32
- Projected Final Record: 23-59
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
15. Washington Wizards
- Current Record: 10-29
- Projected Final Record: 21-61
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NBA Playoff Predictions: The Opta Supercomputer Projects the Postseason Bracket appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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