Uncover the Surprising NBA Betting Secrets That Could Make Your 2026 Martin Luther King Jr. Day Unforgettable!

Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the NBA isn’t just another date on the calendar—it’s a midseason spectacle that splits the basketball world wide open. For die-hard fans, it’s a chance to witness some of the season’s most electrifying matchups, but for the casual bettor, it might just be the perfect warmup before diving headfirst into Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship frenzy. Does this make you wonder if the NBA MLK slate is the ultimate appetizer for your sports betting palate, or just a tempting distraction? Whether you’re here to ride my picks or bet against them, I’m laying down my hottest takes on the Thunder vs. Cavaliers, Mavericks vs. Knicks, and Celtics vs. Pistons battles. Spoiler alert: I’m skeptical about OKC despite their favoritism—because nothing says “upset alert” like January’s cold stats and missing stars on both sides. So buckle up, because these aren’t your average tips—they’re a strategic blend of analytics, gut feeling, and pure basketball instinct ready to help you navigate Monday’s cosmic slate. LEARN MORE

For us NBA fans, the Martin Luther King Jr. Day slate is one of the best slates of the regular season. For you non-NBA fans, maybe this is one of the days you actually bet on the Association. Or perhaps, the NBA-MLK Day card could be a gambling appetizer before the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship feast later Monday night.

Whether you decide to follow or fade me on my NBA-MLK Day betting journey is your choice. All I can do is lay out my case. That said, here are my best bets for the Thunder-Cavaliers, Mavericks-Knicks, and Celtics-Pistons games Monday.

Even though they are the favorites to repeat as NBA champions, I’m fading OKC, which is fifth in net rating this month. Granted, the Cavs are missing two starters (PG Darius Garland and SG Sam Merrill). But, so is Oklahoma City (wing Jalen Williams and C Isaiah Hartenstein), and January is Cleveland’s best month for scoring and shooting.

Without Garland on the floor, Donovan Mitchell should have the ball in his hands more Monday, which might not be a bad thing. In a playoff series, no Garland would be a deal-breaker for the Cavaliers. Yet, for one game, Mitchell can be the best player on the floor, even against the reigning NBA MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Also, as -2 home favorites, the Thunder beat the brakes off the Cavs, 134-114, in OKC Thursday, and it’s tough beating the same team twice in consecutive meetings. This is an NBA betting angle that’s useful when betting on playoff series, called the Zig-Zag Theory. The market overreacts to one team beating another, and we get a “good number” for the underdog in the rematch.

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Dallas is fifth in Pace and NYK is down to speed up the game if they are the superior offensive team, especially at home, where the Knicks average 4.4 more points per game (PPG). Their offensive rating is better, and their defensive rating is worse under first-year head coach Mike Brown.

Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Mavs are second in fastbreak efficiency, and New York is third. Plus, due to their injuries, the Mavericks are more likely to capitalize on transition opportunities to secure easy buckets, as they have a clear talent deficiency.

Jalen Brunson has missed the past two games and is “questionable” to play Monday. However, Brunson doesn’t miss regular-season games often, and I’m guessing he will return Monday.

If Brunson plays, that obviously helps New York’s offense, but if not, his backups are better offensive players. Meanwhile, Dallas is missing its two best defenders, Anthony Davis and C Daniel Gafford, who are also its two starting bigs.

Speaking of “easy buckets,” the Knicks have a huge edge on the glass. They are fourth in second-chance PPG and should get a bunch of putbacks because the Mavs won’t have their three leading rebounders Monday: AD, Gafford, and forward P.J. Washington.

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Simply put, both teams are at full strength-ish (obviously, Boston still doesn’t have Jayson Tatum), and I make Detroit a -5 home favorite over the Celtics. The Pistons have a better net rating this season, and they lead the NBA in total efficiency over the last two weeks, and rank second in spread differential, according to CTG.

Furthermore, Detroit is 2-1 straight up and against the spread vs. Boston this season. Pistons All-Star PG Cade Cunningham is the best player in this game, with all due respect to Celtics All-Star wing Jaylen Brown. Cade is scoring 33.0 PPG on 64.4% true shooting (.477/.500/.926) against Boston this season.

Detroit gets better looks because it attacks the basket, whereas the Celtics live and die by 3-pointers, which can be random. The Pistons are third in defensive 3-point shooting percentage in non-garbage time, per CTG. Lastly, because Detroit crashes the glass relentlessly, it’s fourth in putback points per miss, and Boston is 22nd in putback points per miss allowed on defense.

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.