2026 College Football Playoff Dark Horses and Shocking Wild Card Picks Revealed Early

As the confetti settles and the echoes of the epic Indiana vs. Miami national title clash fade, we find ourselves at a fascinating crossroads in college football. 2025 wasn’t just another season; it was a seismic shift where Indiana stamped its authority as a bona fide powerhouse, Miami reasserted itself atop the pantheon, and Texas Tech charted a new course as the Big 12’s juggernaut. Meanwhile, coaching shakeups at Penn State, LSU, Florida, and Michigan promise fresh storylines that could reshape the landscape entirely in 2026. So, with reigning champs Indiana basking in glory but facing new challenges, who’s really poised to own the next chapter of this relentless gridiron saga? Let’s dive into the ridiculously early College Football Playoff projections and see which teams might be gearing up to crash the party next year. LEARN MORE.

The College Football Playoff is officially in the rearview, as Indiana and Miami played an epic national title game to cap a CFP that was filled with dramatic, competitive games.

2025 was a bit of a transition season in college football, as Indiana established itself as a national powerhouse and Miami rose back to the top of the sport. Ole Miss also made a big run to the CFP semifinals and appears here to stay even after Lane Kiffin left for LSU, and Texas Tech dominated the Big 12 and looks to be the premier program in that conference in this new era.

On the other side of things, Penn State, LSU, Florida and Michigan will all come into 2026 with new head coaches as they look to rise back to the top of the sport.

While Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers will be basking in their national title for a little bit longer, it’s never too early to look ahead to next season. Here’s an early look at who could be in the CFP mix in 2026.

1. Texas

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) rushes with the ball for a touchdown against the Michigan Wolverines during the second half at Camping World Stadium. — © Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Texas didn’t meet its lofty expectations coming into the 2025 season, where the Longhorns started as the preseason No. 1 team. Losses to Ohio State and Georgia, on top of a disappointing upset defeat against a subpar Florida team, kept Texas out of the CFP despite a lot of campaigning from Steve Sarkisian.

However, I’m willing to stamp Texas as the top-ranked team going into next season. Arch Manning was quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC by the end of the season last year, and Texas added two star running backs (Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown) and the best receiver in the portal (Auburn’s Cam Coleman). Sarkisian has to replace some stars on defense, but this offense could be absolutely unstoppable next season.

2. Ohio State

Ohio State was supposed to be in a transition year in 2025, especially on defense, after winning the national title in 2024. Instead, Ryan Day led his squad to an undefeated regular season, even if back-to-back losses to end the year will leave a sour taste in Columbus.

Day and Matt Patricia have a lot of rebuilding to do on defense once again heading into 2026, but standout pass rusher Kenyatta Jackson and promising cornerback Jermaine Matthews Jr. will be back along with a strong transfer portal class. On offense, Julian Sayin, Bo Jackson and Jeremiah Smith will be back for what should be an elite unit.

3. Oregon

Oregon got one stage further than last season, but still experienced the same fate as 2024 with a blowout loss to a conference foe that went on to win the national title. Now, the Ducks are returning almost their entire defensive line and star cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. on the defensive side of the ball. Dante Moore, Dakorien Moore and the running back duo of Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. should make for an explosive offense as well.

4. Texas Tech

Texas Tech emerged as the team to beat in the Big 12 this season, which was bound to happen given the amount of NIL resources the Red Raiders have compared to the rest of the league. With those resources, Joey McGuire built one of the best defenses in the country and an explosive offense.

A lot of that elite Texas Tech front seven will have to be rebuilt, but star linebacker Ben Roberts is back. On the offensive side of the ball, an upgrade at quarterback to Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby should help offset any drop-off on defense.

5. Georgia

Georgia has won the SEC Championship in each of the last two seasons, but Kirby Smart and company have been bounced out of the College Football Playoff in the quarterfinals both years. Quarterback Gunner Stockton and running back Nate Frazier will be back to support a young defense that will be even better when the portal season finishes up. Add that onto the Kirby Smart culture, and Georgia will be right back near the top of college football next season.

6. Notre Dame

Notre Dame was the biggest College Football Playoff snub in 2025, and now it is losing Jeremiyah Love to the NFL. However, Marcus Freeman and company will bring back two of the best freshmen in the country in quarterback CJ Carr and cornerback Leonard Moore. Notre Dame has also had a great portal class in the secondary and its schedule doesn’t look to be that difficult, which should have it safely in the CFP.

7. Indiana

Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti hoists the championship trophy. — © Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This may seem a little low for the national champs after Curt Cignetti and company just dominated the entire 2025 season, becoming the first college team ever to go 16-0. However, Fernando Mendoza is gone and TCU transfer Josh Hoover had an up-and-down season in Fort Worth in 2025. Add that to a number of veterans leaving on defense, and Curt Cignetti will have to put some pieces back together in 2026. We’re still confident he will have the Hoosiers comfortably in the field.

8. LSU

LSU might be the most interesting team in America coming into next season with Lane Kiffin leading the way. The Tigers finished 7-6 in 2025, but they still had an elite roster and just need a coach that will get the most out of them.

Kiffin should be able to do that, especially after landing Sam Leavitt in the transfer portal. Running back Caden Durham and tight end Trey’Dez Green are also back on offense, and Whit Weeks will be one of the best linebackers in the country on the other side.

9. Miami (FL)

Miami is a tough one to judge until Mario Cristobal lands a quarterback, but this ranking is going off of the assumption that Duke signal caller Darian Mensah ends up with the Hurricanes at some point. Of course, Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. will be back for whoever is playing quarterback, so this should be an explosive offense either way.

However, this Miami team was so good because of its dominance on the line of scrimmage. Cristobal will have to replace a lot of that production, including three potential first-rounders (right tackle Francis Mauigoa, pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor).

10. BYU

BYU nearly made it to the CFP in 2025, but the Cougars were no match for Texas Tech in either of their meetings. However, Kalani Sitake always gets the most out of his rosters, and Bear Bachmaier will be back at quarterback in 2026. That combination should have this team near the top of the Big 12 again.

11. Missouri

Missouri Tigers running back Ahmad Hardy (29) runs the ball against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the second half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. — Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Missouri is worth taking a swing on at No. 11 with what has a chance to be an explosive offense next season. Running back Ahmad Hardy is arguably the best returning player at his position in all of college football, and transfer QB Austin Simmons was expected to start at quarterback this season for Ole Miss before an ankle injury opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss. Eli Drinkwitz and company could be in for a big year next season.

12. Boise State

The Group of Five experienced a lot of attrition with some of its top coaches and programs this offseason. South Florida, North Texas, Tulane and James Madison all lost their coaches to Power Four jobs, leaving the door open for Spencer Danielson and the Broncos to get back in the CFP out of the new-look Pac-12. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will be back to help lead that charge, as well.

Next Out: Ole Miss, SMU, Texas A&M

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