Unlock the Secret Twist That Changes Everything in This Story
Some rivalries don’t just split the season—they slash it down to the wire. Take the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, for instance: separated by a mere single point and one yard over two electrifying regular season clashes, these NFC West titans are gearing up for a winner-take-all showdown. Imagine the tension—after trading blows all season long, they meet for a third and final time with a spot in the Super Bowl dangled tantalizingly close. The Seahawks, riding a wave of dominant defense and a fortress-like home record, vs. the Rams, a high-octane offense seeking redemption from a recent cold snap. It’s not just a game—it’s destiny. So, who will seize the moment when stakes couldn’t be higher? Let’s dive deep and unpack the keys that could tilt this razor-thin rivalry.
The NFC West rivals split their two meetings during the regular season. Now they’re clashing for a third time with the winner of the rubber match earning a berth in the Super Bowl.
One point and 1 yard.
That’s all that separated the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks in the 2025 regular season.
The Rams racked up 58 points and 830 total yards of offense, while the Seahawks amassed 57 points and 829 yards in splitting their two meetings.
These two equally matched NFC West rivals now meet for a third time with the winner of the rubber match earning a berth in the Super Bowl.
When they last met just over a month ago, we witnessed an entertaining and thrilling showdown, with the Seahawks emerging victorious, rallying for a stunning 38-37 win in overtime.
That Week 16 victory moved the Seahawks atop the division and helped propel them to the conference’s No. 1 seed, which paved the way for them to host Sunday’s NFC championship game.
Seattle has won 11 of its last 12 home playoff games, with that lone loss coming to none other than the Rams. But that was in front of an empty stadium in January 2021 due to COVID.
It will be a much different atmosphere this time at Lumen Field.
Rams’ Key to Victory vs. Seahawks
Of the four teams still in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy, the Seahawks not only boast the longest active winning streak, but they’re also winning in dominant fashion behind Mike Macdonald’s suffocating defense.
Since losing the Rams 21-19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 11, Seattle has gone 8-0, outscoring its opponents 230-105 while permitting just a single offensive touchdown in its last three contests.
The Seahawks demolished San Francisco 41-6 in last Saturday’s divisional game, holding the 49ers to 236 yards after yielding just 173 to the Niners in a 13-3 road win in the regular-season finale. That came after it permitted the NFC South champion Carolina Panthers to a season-low 139 yards in a 27-10 road victory in Week 17.
Macdonald’s top-ranked scoring defense (17.2) now takes aim at Sean McVay’s No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 points per game), though the Rams are coming off an uneven performance in Sunday’s 20-17 overtime win over the Chicago Bears at snowy Soldier Field.
Los Angeles marched down the field for 85 yards on its first possession to take a 7-0 lead on Kyren Williams’ 4-yard touchdown run, but it managed just 255 yards on its next 12 drives.
MVP candidate Matthew Stafford completed less than 50% of his 42 attempts for 258 yards without a touchdown or interception for a 67.4 passer rating.
Rams Player Projections
- QB Matthew Stafford: 22 of 34, 271 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RB Kyren Williams: 15 carries for 66 yards, 1 TD
- WR Puka Nacua: 7 catches for 88 yards
- WR Davante Adams: 4 catches for 66 yards
Playing in the snow and wind and cold likely had something to do with the subpar performance from Stafford and the offense, and while a matchup against Seattle’s stout defense doesn’t look like an easy way for the Rams to get back on track, McVay has found success against Macdonald’s unit this season.
In Seattle’s last seven games, its opponents have scored 0, 3, 6, 9, 10, 16 and … 37 points.
Those 37 points were scored by Los Angeles, and though the Seahawks escaped with a win by way of a miraculous comeback capped by a game-ending two-point conversion, Stafford and company had little trouble moving the ball down the field.
The Rams compiled 581 total yards – their most in a game since amassing 614 against the San Diego Chargers in 2000. It was also the most yards Seattle ever permitted in a game in the franchise’s 50-year history.
Not only did Stafford throw for a season-best 457 yards and three touchdowns for a 110.7 QB rating, but he also wasn’t sacked once – one of only two games this season a Seattle team that tied for seventh in the NFL with 47 sacks didn’t notch one.
Stafford picked the Seahawks apart despite playing without the league’s touchdown receptions leader in Davante Adams, who was sidelined with a hamstring injury. Puka Nacua picked up the slack with a career game, hauling in 12 catches for 225 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
Playing without Adams obviously wasn’t ideal, but his absence also presented McVay with an opportunity to lean into a tactic he had been employing more of this season – lining up with tight ends Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson on the field at the same time.
No team has rolled with a three-tight end set more than the Rams, who have utilized a 131 personnel on 361 plays – 238 more than the next-closest team, the Bears.
In Week 16, they ran a season-high 54 plays with three tight ends on the field, with Stafford completing 15 of 24 passes for 221 yards with three TDs for a 132.1 passer rating. On his other 25 passes, he completed 14 for 236 yards for an 88.1 QB rating.
Out of a 131 set, McVay evenly distributed the play calls, with Stafford throwing six attempts out of a drop back, six in play-action and six in bootleg, as well as some quick throws, RPOs and a screen.
Stafford did a good job of simply taking what Seattle’s defense was giving him and didn’t try to force the ball downfield, checking down on eight of his 24 throws out of 131 personnel. Out of all other offensive formations, he threw to a check-down receiver only twice.
Nacua was targeted seven times out of 131 personnel, catching six for 121 yards and both of his touchdowns – including a 41-yarder on a play-action pass in overtime.
Allen led the tight end trio with 34 yards on two receptions out of the 131 set. Parkinson also had two catches for 21 yards, while Ferguson caught one pass for a 3-yard TD out of play action.
Adams is back healthy for the Rams, and McVay hasn’t used 131 looks as much lately. (They only ran seven plays with three tight ends against the Bears.) But considering their offense struggled to get in rhythm last weekend and given the problems Seattle had in defending against the three-tight end look just over a month ago, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it be a bigger part of Los Angeles’ game plan with a berth in the Super Bowl on the line.
Seahawks’ Key to Victory vs. Rams
While Seattle defense has garnered plenty of attention for its sensational play, the Seahawks offense is also no slouch.
The unit’s 28.4 points per game in the regular season ranked third in the league and in its divisional game, the Seahawks scored on six of seven possessions (four TDs, two FGs) before punting on their final two drives in the fourth quarter with the outcome already decided.
The offense, though, is dealing with injuries to a couple of important pieces.
Sam Darnold played through an injured oblique last weekend, while Zach Charbonnet sustained a season-ending torn ACL against the 49ers. Charbonnet led the Seahawks with 12 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, while his 730 rushing yards ranked second.
With Darnold not at 100% and Charbonnet’s season over, Seattle will need Kenneth Walker III to carry an even larger load in the backfield – a task he should be up for.
Seahawks Player Projections
- QB Sam Darnold: 21 of 30, 239 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RB Kenneth Walker III: 19 carries for 90 yards, 1 TD
- WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 6 catches for 95 yards
- WR Cooper Kupp: 4 catches for 43 yards
Walker is the Seahawks’ No. 1 running back after all, rushing for 1,027 yards in the regular season, and he’s one of the NFL’s most dangerous backs to break off a big run. Of his 221 carries in the regular season, 33 went for 10 or more yards – that rate of 14.9% ranked fourth in the league among qualifying running backs.
He had three of his 19 carries go for at least 10 yards last Saturday, finishing with 116 yards with touchdown runs of 6, 7 and 15 yards.
Against the Rams last month, he only carried the ball 11 times, but still finished with 100 yards, going untouched to score a 55-yard touchdown on a duo play in the opening minutes of the second half.
When they keep the ball on the ground, the Seahawks run more inside zone than any other run concept; however, Charbonnet got a majority of those carries – 81 to Walker’s 58. Charbonnet also scored on a 4-yard TD on an inside zone run to cap Seattle’s opening drive against Los Angeles in December.
The Seahawks lean more heavily on Walker when running duo, allowing him to read his offensive line’s blocks and use his speed to find the holes. He’s one of the NFL’s best at picking up yards in this concept, averaging 6.46 yards on his 35 carries – the third-highest average among the 33 running backs with at least 20 such carries.
His average of 4.77 yards before contact on duo runs also ranks third behind Gibbs (6.21) and Montgomery (5.38).
The Rams have been one of the worst teams in defending duo all season, but they’ve been especially bad over the last month. Beginning with the game against the Seahawks in Week 16, they’re allowing 6.2 yards on such play calls – the third worst in the NFL.
Last week in Chicago, D’Andre Swift ran four times out of a duo call, gaining 21 yards as the Bears churned out 160 yards on the ground. That marked the third time in its last five games that Los Angeles permitted at least 160 rushing yards, with those five opponents averaging 5.31 yards per carry.
Darnold didn’t appear to be too bothered by the oblique last week and wasn’t asked to do much, throwing just 17 times. Even if he’s closer to full strength, riding with Walker against Los Angeles’ inferior rush defense seems to be Seattle’s best path to the Super Bowl.
Opta Supercomputer’s Pick: Rams 57.1%
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The post Rams vs. Seahawks Predictions: Will Los Angeles Win Another Tough Road Test in the NFC Championship Game? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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