Inside BU’s Rising Star Tynan Lawrence, the Tense Malhotra-Desnoyers Rivalry, and Secret Olympic Prospects for 2026

Diving into the heart of the 2026 NHL Draft season, I’ve just rolled out my midseason rankings — and naturally, that sparks a fresh round of questions from all of you eager minds out there . From Tynan Lawrence’s rocky start at BU to the intriguing prospects heading off to the Olympics, from dissecting Caleb Malhotra against Caleb Desnoyers to sizing up the top-tier of diminutive defensemen — I’m here to break it all down . Your curiosity fuels this mailbag, and I’ve tackled a dozen of the spiciest inquiries, polishing each for clarity and grouping similar ones to keep the conversation flowing . If your question didn’t make this roundup, worry not — the rest are queued up and ready to be unveiled shortly . So buckle up as we traverse through the intricate dance of potential, performance, and projection in this unpredictable draft year . LEARN MORE

My midseason 2026 NHL Draft rankings are out, and that means it’s time for another prospects mailbag.

You submitted questions. Here, I’ve answered a dozen of the big ones on Tynan Lawrence’s start at BU, prospects going to the Olympics, Caleb Malhotra versus Caleb Desnoyers, the top-end small D and more.

Note: Questions are lightly edited for clarity and length. Similar questions are grouped. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it below, I’ll be answering the rest of the submissions here.

What should we make of Tynan Lawrence’s lack of production so far at BU? — Aavcocup A. and John M.

This was the most-requested question and feels like the big one to start with, and the topic du jour in this draft class.

First, let’s establish the context. Here are his official NCAAA numbers so far: 5 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 5 SOG, -2, 15:55 ATOI. According to InStat (the scouting service we use, but not an official record holder), he also has 11 shot attempts, two hits, two executed passes to the slot, has won 49 percent of his draws and is averaging nearly two and a half minutes per game on the power play. His opponents in those five games have been Harvard, UMass (x2) and UMass-Lowell (x2), who rank 20th, 28th and 49th, respectively, in NPI (the NCAA’s new index for selecting and seeding the national tournament). He’s also an August 2008 birthday and the second-youngest player currently playing in college hockey to fellow second-semester newcomer Oscar Hemming (they were born 10 days apart).

If your glass is half full, they’re clearly easing him in and making the jump at midseason to a new city, new team, new system, new linemates and new level, while sorting out school, deserves some grace, especially considering how young he is.

If your glass is half empty, you’d point out that he seems to be generating little at five-on-five and the power play, his opponents haven’t exactly been a murderer’s row of college hockey’s best, and we’ve got direct comparables of players who haven’t been viewed as top-of-the-draft prospects and have performed better making that midseason jump. That includes Hemming this month at BC, who has two points and eight shots in four games in identical minutes and hadn’t played hockey all year coming in. But it also includes Will Horcoff, who scored in his NCAA debut a year ago and had 10 points in 18 games after making the midseason move to Michigan.

The reality is somewhere in the middle. Lawrence was born five weeks away from 2027 draft eligibility and had been arguably the best player in the USHL, a hard league to score in at 16 and 17, for more than a year. He’s a premium prospect at a premium position with a ton of pro attributes. But he hasn’t looked first-overall conversation caliber in college, and there were questions about his ceiling offensively before this that now feel more real. If he steps up, he’ll be allowed to play his way out of it and get the benefit of the doubt and the glass-half-full case for the slow start.

It has been an unconventional draft year, though. Lawrence could have played in the QMJHL this year, where he and his draft stock would have both done well, but he chose to return to Muskegon and be the team’s captain. When he made that choice (while others were leaving the USHL for the CHL), his company line was that he was doing it because he wanted to lead the Lumberjacks to back-to-back titles. Then he left after playing just 13 games.

His draft year isn’t over, and there’s plenty of hockey left to be played, but these are things that NHL teams are going to ask him about in the lead-up now.

Are there any prospects headed to the Olympics this year worth keeping an eye on? — Cedric S.

How do you think playing in the Olympics is likely to impact how Smits is perceived by NHL teams? — Rowen B.

Here’s my working list of young players I’ll be watching:

Slovakia:

• G Adam Gajan (Blackhawks)
• F Dalibor Dvorsky (Blues)

Italy:

• G Damian Clara (Ducks)

Latvia:

• D Alberts Smits (2026)
• F Dans Locmelis (Bruins)
• F Sandis Vilmanis (Panthers)

Denmark:

• F Oscar Fisker Molgaard (Kraken)

Smits is the big one. We’ve seen men’s international events play a role in elevating a player’s draft stock. Men’s worlds cemented Moritz Seider as a top prospect in 2019. Juraj Slafkovský’s performances at men’s worlds and the Olympics were at the center of the Habs’ decision to take him at No. 1. And if Smits plays well on a Latvian blue line that could need him, it’ll matter. He’s going to be a top-10 pick in this draft. A strong showing against NHLers could solidify him as a top-five pick down the stretch.

And he’s not a prospect anymore, but I think this could be a coming-out party for the Devils’ 2022 No. 2 pick Simon Nemec, who I expect to play a big role for Slovakia.

How would you compare Caleb Malhotra to 2025 No. 4 pick and two-way pivot Caleb Desnoyers? — Reed L.

There are definitely some similarities. They’re both 6-foot-1/2, 180ish-pound centers who are viewed as leaders and 200-foot players who respect the little details of the game. They’re both very intelligent players who think the game at a high level. Both are big parts of winning teams with championship aspirations in their draft years.

Desnoyers had a greater pedigree coming into his draft year, though. He was the first pick in the Q, he’d played and won gold at U18 worlds as an underager with Canada that spring and was coming off a 56-in-60 season at 16 and was on the QMJHL’s All-Rookie Team. Malhotra wasn’t viewed as a top-10 pick coming into his draft year, and Desnoyers was in that conversation in his.

Desnoyers was also a little more productive in his draft year (he finished with 114 points in 75 combined regular-season and playoff games) and won QMJHL Playoffs MVP, and Malhotra is currently playing at a 102-point 75-game pace. There’s a very real possibility that Brantford wins the OHL title and Malhotra is playing in the Memorial Cup a year after Desnoyers did, and if Malhotra continues to play like he has this year, I think there’s a scenario where he goes as high as Desnoyers did in the draft.

How has the changing development landscape (college eligibility opening up to CHL, etc.) impacted what you do? How hard is it to evaluate leagues like the USHL or BCHL now that they’re not the only way for a college-bound prospect to keep their eligibility? — Michael F.

In the first half of the season, anecdotally, I thought I was going to be watching the USHL less than I actually did. They lost some players to the CHL for sure, but I’ve still watched a lot of Muskegon (Lawrence, obviously, but also Rudolfs Berzkalns) and Youngstown (Jack Hextall and Evan Jardine are the draft-eligible focus there), some Des Moines (Blake Zielinski) and some Green Bay (Landon Hafele), as well as a bunch of drafted prospects more recently for my pool rankings. Tri-City and Chicago also have some notable players for 2027. I still have a lot of time for the level of that league. It’s a challenging, competitive league that is hard to score in.

I haven’t watched a single BCHL game this year, though, and the only Tier 2 junior I’ve watched in Ontario was to watch 7-footer Alexander Karmanov when he was with the Brantford Titans. You’ll notice their absence on NHL Central Scouting’s midseason list, too. That, I fear, is going to be the new norm.

What’s the deepest position at this year’s draft by your estimation? — Patrick S.

It’s deepest on the wing and on D. There are just three centers in my top 17 (Lawrence, Malhotra and Viggo Bjorck) to seven wingers and seven defensemen (three lefties, four righties). Last year, by contrast, I had eight centers in my top 15!

This is also a very weak goalie class. If I were putting together my final top 100 today, there would be just one goalie in it. I don’t have a goalie in my top 64. Last year, there were six goalies in my top 64.

Who are your three favorite players that you did not rank? — Doug J.

Tri-City American import Jakub Vanecek was my last cut on D for this week’s list, and Ottawa 67’s center Thomas Vandenberg was my last cut at forward. Vandenberg was on my previous list. They’re in that sixth tier I had and comparable prospects to those I ranked in the 50s and early 60s. They’ll also both get picked ahead of a bunch of names on my list. Vanecek, in particular, is trending right now. He has played very well since returning from the World Juniors with Czechia.

Curious where you think the three smaller D (Ryan Lin, Xavier Villeneuve and Axel Elofsson) will go? — Austin S.

If Denton Mateychuk went 12th, I think that should be Lin’s range. But there’s definitely a scenario where he goes late teens or early 20s. I’d obviously disagree.

I think about Olen Zellweger’s range (early Day 2 if a team really believes in him) as the ceiling for Elofsson, but he’s much more likely a third-round guy, and his floor might even be lower than that.

Villeneuve is a complete wild card.

Only so many teams that will take them, and those teams only have so many picks — and are unlikely to take two of them.

I’d add a fourth player to that list, though: Moncton’s Tommy Bleyl. I don’t think it’s completely out of the question that he goes in front of Elofsson. He’s playing some very good hockey right now, skates like the wind, his camp of believers is growing, and he’s got very tall relatives on both sides of his family. Belief is he’s going to keep growing (I was told recently he’s just a hair under 6-feet now).

Who are your potential mid-to-late first-round steals? Guys who have top of the draft potential, but might fall for one reason or another. — Andreas S.

If Lin, Bjorck or Villeneuve are around in the second half of the first round, they’re my answer. One will be. Two could well be. All three lingering aren’t completely out of the question, either.

I like Marcus Nordmark as the top talent once the big names are gone, too. And I’m higher than most on Nikita Klepov, who isn’t even guaranteed to be a first-rounder.

How would you tier the hockey leagues outside of the NHL? — Anthony S. and Brendan S.

Tier 1: KHL, SHL, AHL.

They’re all very close. The KHL used to be the clear No. 1. I don’t think that’s the case anymore. Most of the non-Russian European players who played there pre-war in Ukraine left and haven’t returned, which has hurt the level.

Tier 2: NL, Liiga, DEL, Czech Extraliga.

It used to be that Liiga was the strongest of that tier, but its finances have made it tough to compete with the higher salaries that are available in Switzerland. If the DEL hasn’t already passed Liiga, it’s close, too.

Tier 3: HockeyAllsvenskan, ECHL, Slovak Extraliga, and then VHL, EIHL, EBEL, etc.

Would you say that this year’s draft is weaker than expected? Could you compare this year’s projected top five to last year’s top five? — Rick A.

I would say this year’s draft is exactly what I expected. It’s weaker than some others in the public sphere said it would be, but I’ve been downplaying the hype since last year’s trade deadline, and I want that on the historical record! It’s an average to below-average draft.

To answer the second part of your question, let’s say Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Keaton Verhoeff, Tynan Lawrence and Chase Reid are still the consensus top five from this year’s draft (I don’t think that’s the case anymore, but those are the most common names readers will have heard this year). If I’m ranking those five and the first five picks from last year’s draft, it probably looks something like this for me without giving it too much thought:

1. Matthew Schaefer
2-4: Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, Michael Misa
5-6: Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid
7-9: Anton Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers, Tynan Lawrence
10. Brady Martin