Yankees’ Future Unveiled: ZiPS Projections Reveal Shocking Surprises Ahead

As the 2026 baseball season looms on the horizon, the buzz surrounding team projections has reached a fever pitch. Over the past several months, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs methodically crunched the numbers, running a staggering one million simulations for all 30 Major League clubs. Not surprisingly, the American League East is shaping up to be a fierce battlefield — four out of the five teams boast at least a 40% shot at postseason glory. Yet, amid this heated toss-up, the New York Yankees stand out — though perhaps not in the way their fans would hope — with an average win tally hovering around 87 games, according to the ZiPS model. What’s behind this tempered outlook? A core group of veteran stars past their prime has the team walking a precarious line between experience and age-induced unpredictability. Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodón — all seasoned campaigners — contribute strength but also raise the stakes of maintaining peak performance. Despite winning 94 games in back-to-back seasons recently, the Yankees face an invisible opponent as relentless as any on the diamond: Father Time. Meanwhile, off the field, subtle roster shuffles are underway — including the trade of left-handed reliever Jayvien Sandridge to the Angels for cash considerations — signaling a continuing quest for balance and depth. Adding to the off-field intrigue, retired icon Anthony Rizzo is pivoting to the broadcast booth, set to lend his expertise alongside Bob Costas and Clayton Kershaw as NBC Sports takes over Sunday Night Baseball coverage. The coming campaign promises tension, drama, and the inevitable surprises that make baseball endlessly captivating. LEARN MORE

FanGraphs | Dan Szymborski: All winter, Dan Szymborski has been running the ZiPS projections for each team for the 2026 season. Now, with all 30 teams done, he ran one million simulations of the 2026 season. Unsurprisingly, the American League East projects to be a dogfight, with four of the division’s five teams having at least a forty percent chance of making the postseason. Among the top four teams, the Yankees don’t have the brightest performance in the model, with an average win total of just 87 games.

Newsday | Laura Albanese: One of the big reasons that the Yankees have a slightly lower performance by the ZiPS model is the fact that the team’s core is aging. Over the last few years, the organization has basically “run it back” year in year out, leaning on Aaron Judge offensively and trying to build a strong pitching staff behind 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Because of this, though, the Yankees’ core has begun to get old, as Judge, Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodón are all on the wrong side of 30. While that does not mean they will perform poorly — the team did win 94 games in each of the last two seasons, and 92 or more in six of the last seven full seasons — it does increase the margin of error, as Father Time is mostly undefeated.

MLB.com: In a low-level move, the Yankees sent lefty reliever Jayvien Sandridge to the Los Angeles Angels yesterday in exchange for cash considerations. The 26-year-old Sandbridge made one appearance with the Yankees last season — his Major League debut — while serving primarily as bullpen depth in Triple-A.

NJ.com: Retired Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo appears to be launching a sports media career this season, as reports indicate that he is set to join NBC Sports as they take over the coverage of Sunday Night Baseball this season. He will join Bob Costas and Clayton Kershaw as studio analysts.