Unlocking the Secret Twist That Changes Everything You Thought You Knew About This Story
This year’s NBA trade deadline unfolded like a whirlwind—frantic, frenetic, and downright relentless. You blinked, and another blockbuster deal had already reshaped team rosters and playoff hopes alike. But beyond the buzz and the breaking news, there’s the real question hanging over the hardwood: what does all this chaos actually mean for the rest of the season? With star players shuffling like a high-stakes poker game, the league’s landscape has morphed practically overnight, leaving fans and analysts alike to wonder which storylines will define the months ahead. Will Anthony Davis and Trae Young return healthy enough to make a splash? Can James Harden revive his postseason magic in Cleveland’s new setup? And just how much could the Pacers’ high-risk, high-reward gamble pay off? Let’s unpack these puzzles—and more—as the NBA gears up for what promises to be an electrifying stretch run. LEARN MORE.
This year’s NBA trade deadline was among the busiest in recent memory. Now it’s time to assess the big questions in the league following the flurry of transactions.
When the days and hours leading up to the NBA trade deadline are as hectic as they were this year, it’s hard to stop, take a breath and ponder what the moves actually mean for the rest of the season.
The transactions occurred so quickly that major trades went by, and the prevailing question was, “What’s next?”
Now, past the trade deadline, it’s time to break down just how much the landscape of the league is changed by the flurry of moves that happened over the last couple days.
With how many NBA players changed teams, the league is bound to be different from now until the start of the postseason. Here are four questions whose answers will have major impact in the coming months.
How Many Games Will Trae Young and Anthony Davis Play This Season?
The Washington Wizards made perhaps the most shocking move of the week, acquiring Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum in exchange for Khris Midddleton, AJ Johnson, Malaki Branham, Marvin Bagley III, a 2026 Oklahoma City Thunder first-round pick, a heavily protected 2030 Golden State Warriors first-round pick, and three second-round picks.
Two first-round picks seem like a steep price for Davis, but the Thunder pick looks likely to be the 30th pick in the first round in the 2026 draft, and there’s a solid chance the pick from the Warriors will be protected in 2030 (if the Warriors finish in the bottom 20 in the league) and then will convey as a second-rounder instead.
The more intriguing draft question is how Davis could affect the Wizards pick this season. The Wizards pick is owed to the Houston Rockets if it falls outside the top eight but turns into two second-rounders if it is not conveyed this year, giving the Wizards a lot of incentive to make sure they get a top-eight pick. Theoretically, a healthy Davis could make that more difficult.
But the Wizards likely won’t have to try too hard to hold onto that pick. They are 13-36 and tied with the Brooklyn Nets for the fourth-worst record in the NBA, two games worse than the Utah Jazz. The Jazz just acquired Jaren Jackson Jr. who, unlike Davis, is currently healthy.
Even if the Wizards “fall” to the sixth-worst record in the league, they’d have a 96.1% chance of keeping their pick. The real danger would be falling to seventh-worst, but they’re currently 5.5 games worse than (coincidentally and a bit funny) the Dallas Mavericks.
With Davis and Young sidelined by injury, the Wizards will likely bank some losses while both are brought back slowly. When both are ready, they should be able to play without the Wizards being in serious jeopardy of losing their draft pick.
Can James Harden and the Cavaliers Bring Out the Best in Each Other?
With the new luxury tax rules, it was always going to be incredibly difficult for the Cleveland Cavaliers to keep all of Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley together long-term.
So the Cavs, clearly frustrated with Garland’s inconsistent health and play, decided to grab two years of James Harden in exchange for three years of Garland.
It does give them a quicker out with their point guard and a way to audible after the 2026-27 season even if they sign Mitchell to a long-term extension. But the flexibility was only part of the calculation.
Essentially, Cleveland felt the 35-year-old Harden was a better fit in the short-term the 26-year-old Garland.
It’s easy to see the reasoning. Entering Wednesday night, Harden had the 18th-best DRIP in the league, while Garland ranked 66th. Garland’s DELTA is the 26th-worst in the league this season, meaning his DRIP has declined more than all but 25 players since the start of the season.
The gap in DRIP probably overestimates the difference between the two players. Garland has suffered multiple injuries, the latest of which is a right toe injury that has kept him out since Jan. 14. If he can get back to full health (a big “if” considering his injury history), he’s better than DRIP projects him at the moment.
If you’re a basketball fan, you know the James Harden story by now. His numbers, both in the standard box score and more advanced data, are unassailable. But then the playoffs roll around and those numbers dip, and almost every season you’re left wanting a little more from him.
Harden has 13 career playoff games when he’s taken at least 15 shots and shot under 30% from the field, tied for the third-most in NBA history. Several of these low points have been in pivotal games in the series as well. He’s Lucy with the football and the Cavaliers are the sixth different Charlie Brown to line up for a kick.
The Cavaliers do have someone who is the clear No. 1 option in crunch time to play alongside Harden in Mitchell, but so did the Los Angeles Clippers with Kawhi Leonard. The difference is that the Cavaliers can get Harden to the playoffs without having to rely on him as much in the regular season. Despite his advanced age (in basketball years), Harden has played the fifth-most minutes in the NBA over the last three seasons. That’s both impressive yet not ideal.
Perhaps a more-rested Harden can be an offensive weapon during early periods of postseason games and capable enough as the second ball handler in crunch time to be really valuable. But it’s a risky bet for a team that desperately needs to make noise in the playoffs this season.
Which Players Will Make an Impact for Contenders?
There were an unusual amount of trades between teams not in contention at this deadline, with several making moves for the future.
But there were also the usual deals that some contenders made to fortify their roster. Harden is the most extreme example, but we’ve already discussed him. His new teammate in Cleveland, Keon Ellis, is another player who will help determine how far the Cavs go in the playoffs.
Ellis was coveted by most of the league as an excellent defensive guard who, like most players who play for the Sacramento Kings, was misused in his previous stop. His 2-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this season, but there’s reason to think that can rebound in a better ecosystem. If it does, he’s a low-usage, but still passable offensive player with a good shot. That’s more than good enough to be on the floor in big moments considering his defensive skills.
Jared McCain was an NBA Rookie of the Year candidate prior to his injury last season but didn’t fit as well in Philadelphia following the emergence of rookie phenom V.J. Edgecombe. The Oklahoma City Thunder get a low-cost look at a player who could give them a bit more dynamism off the bench. It’s unlikely he’s a massive playoff factor unless he returns to form quickly, but the upside is there.
Nikola Vucevic is the center the Boston Celtics badly needed. He’s not a rim protector and can be a defensive liability near the basket, but he’s not quite as bad defensively as his reputation would suggest and his offensive skills are an upgrade over the big men who were already on the Celtics’ roster. The key will be maintaining his sharpshooting on 3-pointers. Vucevic is shooting 39.6% on 4.5 3-point attempts per game over the past season and a half after shooting a dreadful 29.4% behind the arc in 2023-24.
Another former Bull could be really important in the playoffs. The Minnesota Timberwolves felt one perimeter player short in their rotation and added Ayo Dosunmu without giving up a first-round pick.
Dosunmu isn’t rated highly by DRIP, but, like Ellis, was in a situation in Chicago that didn’t elevate his game. His advanced numbers will likely soar in Minnesota, and frequent Bulls watchers know what he brings to the game.
He’s a downhill driver, solid defender and excellent connector when the defense is rotating. Dosunmu makes winning plays that didn’t help much on a non-contender for the Bulls. In Minnesota, those plays get magnified. He’s not the shooter this season’s 3-point percentage (45.1%) would suggest, but he’s good enough that defenses have to close out on him, which allows him to use his quick first step and get to the basket.
Like Alex Caruso before him, Dosunmu could go from toiling away on a Bulls team not good enough to take advantage of his skill set to being a crucial part of a contender.
Will the Pacers’ Gamble Work in Their Favor?
Even though Jay Huff has filled in admirably this year, the Indiana Pacers needed a long-term answer at center following the offseason departure of Myles Turner.
They filled that need by acquiring Ivica Zubac, who finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season. He should also fit well on the other side of the ball, and Zubac is a master at taking up space with his body and opening up passing lanes for his guards. He’ll now play next season with one of the most creative passers in the game in Tyrese Haliburton.
But the price the Pacers paid was steep. Zubac was acquired along with Kobe Brown for Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson and two first-round draft picks.
One of these draft picks has interesting protections on it. The Pacers dealt their 2026 first-round pick, but it’s protected if they have a top-four selection or if it falls between selections 10 and 30. So the Los Angeles Clippers only get the pick if it is fifth through ninth. If it doesn’t convey, it will convert to a 2031 unprotected first-round pick.
No matter how bad the Pacers are the rest of the season, their chances of falling out of the top four will be at least 47.9%. Meaning there is basically a coin flip chance that the Pacers surrender a pick in the five-to-seven range in a great draft.
On the other hand, if the lottery balls bounce the Pacers’ way, the team could go into next season with Haliburton, Zubac, Pascal Siakam, an incredibly talented rookie and a bunch of excellent role players. The stakes are high for every lottery team when the draft order is decided, but no team will have more to gain or lose than the Pacers.
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The post NBA Trade Deadline: Four Questions on the Aftermath of a Busy Week appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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