Super Bowl LX Showdown: Unveiling the Dark Horse MVP and Shocking Spread That Could Change Everything

So here we are, folks—a classic “I’m just here so they won’t fine me” moment. As a sports betting writer, I’m kinda obligated to toss out a pick for Super Bowl LX, even if between you and me, this matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks feels like the football equivalent of soggy toast. Seriously, if it weren’t the Super Bowl, I’d probably be watching paint dry instead of placing bets. On paper, Seattle looks like the heavyweight champ ready to steamroll New England—their lineup shines everywhere except quarterback, where playoff MVP candidate Sam Darnold outshines the Patriots’ Drake Maye. Everyone and their grandma’s betting on the Seahawks, making them the most popular bet in Super Bowl history—yet somehow, sportsbooks aren’t budging the spread. That’s a little unsettling, right? Do you double down with the herd or trust your gut? Despite the jitters, I’m sheepishly marching in step with the crowd because Seattle’s stats don’t lie—they dominate yards per play, points per game, and the trenches, plus they boast a defense baked by continuity and a sharp coach. But then again, a whisper about Maye’s team maybe being the next Brady-Belichick combo got me off the Patriots bandwagon quick. Where does that leave us? Leaning on Darnold to snag MVP and betting smartly on Seattle’s spread—but hey, expect some quirks this Super Bowl. Longshots like Shaheed and Witherspoon might just shake things up in ways no one’s predicting. Ready to dive deeper and see where the smart money’s headed? LEARN MORE

This is the epitome of a “I’m just here so they won’t fine me” situation. Meaning, I’m a sports betting writer by trade, so I’m pretty much obligated to give out a pick for Super Bowl LX featuring the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. But, between us, this game sucks, and if it weren’t the Super Bowl, I wouldn’t be betting on it.

On paper, Seattle should crush New England, and everyone agrees. The Seahawks are better at every position besides quarterback, and Seattle QB Sam Darnold is playing significantly better in the playoffs than New England QB Drake Maye. And the Seahawks are the most popular bet in Super Bowl history, according to @BetLabs on X.

However, Seattle’s obvious edges are baked into the number, and sportsbooks aren’t increasing the spread even though everyone and their grandmother is betting the Seahawks. That’s scary. I don’t bow at the altar of betting splits, but it doesn’t feel good being on the same side as every Tom, Dick, and Jerry with a sports betting podcast.

Unfortunately, (or fortunately, depending on what happens), I’m following the sheep into the slaughter. The Seahawks have the best yards-per-play and points-per-game margins in the NFL, and they have better line of scrimmage win rates across all four situations, according to ESPN.

Also, I love Seattle’s continuity on defense, matched with defensive-minded head coach Mike Macdonald vs. Maye, who’s looked terrible against playoff competition. Besides pass-rusher DeMarcus Lawrence and rookie DB Nick Emmanwori, most of this defense has been intact for the past couple of seasons. Between continuity and depth, the Seahawks have a championship defense.

At first, I flirted with the idea of betting New England because I knew Seattle was square. Then I heard a few NFL analysts say something like, “I’m not comparing Maye to Tom Brady, but this feels like the first Brady-Bill Belichick team.” Once I heard that, I was out on the Patriots. I’m sorry, I just can’t believe this franchise has been blessed by the football gods again so quickly.

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Saying the quarterback of the winning team will win Super Bowl MVP isn’t sharp. But, I’d rather bet less money on Seattle’s spread and use it on a Darnold MVP ticket. I’m lightly betting the Seahawks to cover the spread, this is a “quarterback award,” and the Patriots are definitely a live ‘dog.

I’m afraid Seattle could win with New England covering, and the “Seahawks -4.5” is -110, whereas Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP is plus-money. So, let’s say I’m betting $100 on Seattle. I’d put $55 on the Seahawks -4.5 (-110), $30 on Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP, and split the remaining $15 on my other two picks for this award.

Shaheed could make a difference in three different ways: receiving, rushing, and returning kicks. While he didn’t score a receiving or rushing touchdown in the nine regular-season games for the Seahawks, they traded for Shaheed earlier this season, knowing he could be a weapon for them.

He had a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown vs. the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round. Shaheed returned one punt and one kickoff for touchdowns in Seattle this season.

His path to winning the Super Bowl MVP includes the Seahawks winning, 2+ touchdowns, and no touchdowns by Darnold and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Maybe his odds are short, but I have a feeling this will be a weird Super Bowl, and I could see Shaheed making a few huge plays.

Witherspoon is Seattle’s highest graded player at Pro Football Focus and the highest graded cornerback in the NFL. New England’s most likely path to victory is Maye playing like an MVP for the first time in the playoffs.

But unless Maye avoids him altogether, which is possible because it’s not wise to throw at the best cornerback in the league, Witherspoon could make game-wrecking plays. He lines up out wide, in the slot, and in the box, making it harder for Maye to avoid him.

Granted, the Seahawks need to win a low-scoring game where both offenses suck, with Witherspoon having at least one interception, possibly a pick-six, and 6+ tackles, to be named MVP. Unlikely, obviously, but this is a “longshot” for a reason.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.