NBA Showdown Secrets: Which Two Bets Could Turn Cavaliers-Nuggets and Thunder-Lakers Into Big Wins?

Just because the football season has hung up its cleats doesn’t mean the sportsbooks are ready to call it quits—oh no, my friend, the party is just shifting gears, revving up with basketball taking the wheel for the next half-year. Like those 24/7 gas stations and 7/11s you stumble into at weird hours, sportsbooks never close; they keep humming along while we transition from pigskins to pick-and-rolls. And let’s be honest—when spring rolls in, it’s not just flowers blooming; March Madness storms the scene, turning casual fans into frantic bettors overnight. But before that whirlwind, the NBA tip-off feels like a slow sip of optimism (if you can stomach the load management drama). Whether it’s watching Harden and Mitchell’s defender-challenged backcourt or weighing the Nuggets’ home-court value minus key players, each matchup is a tantalizing puzzle of stats, injuries, and gut feelings. Oh, and who could ignore the Lakers sneaking back into the spotlight with some unexpected twists—and hey, isn’t it funny how the “recreational” scene in L.A. might just be tipping the scales on home-court vibes? So, get ready to dive into my takes on Monday’s intriguing slate — it’s a blend of basketball passion, betting savvy, and a dash of ‘what-if’ scenarios you won’t want to miss. LEARN MORE.

Just because football ended doesn’t mean the sports betting party is over. Like gas stations and 7/11, sportsbooks are open 24/7, 365. For the next six months, basketball takes centerstage in the sports betting world, featuring March Madness, which is a few weeks away.

The NBA eases us into this post-NFL world with a solid slate Monday. I’m sure “load management” will ruin it, but for now, there are three interesting matchups, including the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. Here are my looks for both games.

Having James Harden and Donovan Mitchell as your starting backcourt is a nightmare. Neither can play defense, and both need the ball to be effective. Mitchell has a little more dog in him, whereas I just wouldn’t want Harden on my team, and I’m philosophically opposed to the way he plays basketball.

I know Denver is missing its best defensive player, PF Aaron Gordon, and wing Peyton Watson, who broke out while Gordon and Nikola Jokić were out with injuries. But this price for the Nuggets at home is just too good to pass up. That said, maybe I’m walking into a trap, and I’m blinded by my basketball hatred for Harden and Mitchell.

Yet, the market is backing Denver, pushing it up from a slight home underdog on the opener, up to a slight favorite as of 3:30 p.m. ET Monday. Granted, the NBA regular-season market isn’t always the sharpest, and the Cavs have won eight of their last nine games and three straight vs. the Nuggets.

Nevertheless, without reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Cleveland big Evan Mobley, available, Jokic should dominate. Finally, the Cavaliers can’t hide both Harden and Mitchell on defense, so Nuggets first-time NBA All-Star PG Jamal Murray (if he plays; he is “questionable” at the time of writing) should ball out.

I gave out the Lakers +5.5 in the OutKick newsletter earlier this morning. But, they are now +7/+7.5 because it has been announced that OKC All-Star Jalen Williams will return from his 10-game absence Monday. Even though I’m not a Lakers fan, this is a “homer pick” because I’m going to the game with a few friends who are big Lakers fans.

Regardless, if I bet LAL at +5.5, then I have to like them at +7. Over the last two weeks, the Lakers have a better record, net rating, and spread differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. While LAL is missing Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves is back, and there is better ball movement when the Lakers run their offense through Reaves.

Hell, the ball moves better when LeBron James, a notorious ball-hog, runs the offense. Luka got hurt after just 16 minutes vs. the Philadelphia 76ers last Thursday, and LeBron finished that game with 10 assists and dished out another 10 assists against the Golden State Warriors Saturday. The Lakers won both games.

Lastly, Los Angeles is a tough place for visiting professional athletes to play, especially basketball players, because the recreational marijuana couch-locks them. The Lakers have won and covered three of their last four home games vs. the Thunder, too.

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.