Inside the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Which Elite Golfer Will Defy the Odds?

Ah, the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am—where the PGA TOUR sheds its training wheels and roars into full gear. It’s not just another stop on the calendar; it’s the season’s first signature event, a no-cut showdown featuring the tour’s elite 80 players battling over a cool $20 million purse, with the champion pocketing a staggering $3.6 million. But here’s the twist: the opening rounds tease us with a test split between the iconic Pebble Beach Golf Links and the rugged Spyglass Hill—both short, par-72 coastal beasts armed with tricky Poa greens and merciless winds. Curious how these two courses frame the challenge? Well, hold on because if the first two rounds don’t whittle the field down, there’s still that Pro-Am charm lingering until the weekend. Now, after a rough patch last week with my bets slipping, I’m doubling down on the same strategy—targeting profit and throwing in Placement Bets with ties for extra cushion. Ready for my top five picks that might just shake things up? And if I told you that betting against Justin Rose right after his dominant Farmers Insurance win is borderline crazy, yet totally understandable given the usual “no back-to-back wins” pep talk—would you blink? Then there’s Ludvig Åberg, a wild card nursing health doubts but carrying a course fit that’s hard to ignore. Toss in the powerhouses like McIlroy, Fleetwood, and Scheffler making their 2026 debuts, and the rising star Thorbjornsen, whose swing could slice through Pebble Beach’s wild coastal winds—this tournament’s shaping up to be a spicy mix of grit, skill, and maybe a little bit of madness. Pebble Beach isn’t just another course; it’s a storyteller’s dream with history, drama, and the kind of golf swings that keep us all hooked. Hungry for the full scoop and my nuanced takes on these contenders and their odds? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE.

The 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is when the PGA TOUR officially stops easing into the season and starts acting like itself. It’s the first signature event of the year. This is a no-cut event featuring the 80 best players on TOUR, with a $20 million prize pool, and the winner will collect $3.6 million.

There is still a Pro-Am until the weekend, but the first two rounds of the AT&T are split between the world-famous Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill, before the tournament finishes at Pebble Beach Saturday and Sunday. They are both short, Par-72, links-style courses with coastal winds and difficult Poa greens.

Last week, two of my top-20 bets cashed, but lost -1.82 units (u), bringing my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll down to -6.39u. I’m running it back with the same betting strategy for the AT&T: Bet enough to profit 20u and my five outright picks, while backing them up with Placement Bets with Ties (Top-10 and 20). Here is my starting 5 for Pebble Beach this week.

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

There’s just so much to like about Rose, and the only reason not to bet him is that he won his last tournament, which is counterintuitive. Like, generally, you want to bet guys when they are playing well, and Rose just dummied the field en route to a sweat-free, seven-stroke win at the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open.

Besides recent form, another reason to bet a golfer is “course fit and history.” Well, Rose won the 2022 AT&T a year before it became a “signature event,” finished T11 in his title defense a year later, and T3 last year. He also finished T3 at the 2021 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, and he’s gained strokes in five of his seven starts here, including three straight.

The driver is probably the least consistent club, but the driver usage at Pebble Beach is roughly 23% lower than the average PGA TOUR course. It’s a “second shot course,” and Rose’s irons have been red-hot since winning the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship, the first-round of the FedExCup Playoffs.

He’s gained strokes with his irons in seven of his last seven international starts since the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open, according to DataGolf.com. While it’s unlikely Rose goes back-to-back, he is motivated to solidify his legacy as a golf Hall of Famer. This is a “signature event,” and he loves Pebble Beach. So, my “fair odds” for Rose are +2500, and I found a better price at Kalshi.

So, I know I was saying earlier that the driver usage is way lower at Pebble Beach compared to other courses. However, Pebble Beach is part of the U.S. Open rotation, and the U.S. Open is the biggest driving test of any major. Plus, former U.S. Open champions have won the last three AT&Ts: Rory McIlroy last year, Wyndham Clark two years ago, and Rose in 2023.

Rory and Clark are two of the most powerful ball-strikers on TOUR, and Rose can still drive the ball well, just not consistently. Nevertheless, even though guys keep their drivers in the bag here, club head speed is still important at Pebble Beach, and Ludvig hits the ball as hard as anyone in the world.

Moreover, Åberg was one stroke behind Clark at the weather-shortened, 54-hole 2024 AT&T, and Ludvig shot in the 60s in all three rounds that year. Meaning, if there were a fourth round, Åberg could’ve, and in my opinion would’ve, won.

We are getting a good price for Ludvig, relatively speaking, because he withdrew from the AT&T last year with a sickness, withdrew from the American Express at the beginning of this season, and missed the cut at the Farmers in his last start, as the reigning champion at Torrey Pines. I.e., he isn’t healthy and/or isn’t playing well.

Furthermore, this is the 2026 debut for McIlroy, the defending AT&T champion, Tommy Fleetwood, the 2025 TOUR Champion, and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Nevertheless, I’m betting on Åberg’s ceiling, and his course fit at these odds, and overlooking his recent form and questionable health.

I had FOMO last weekend watching my guy, Thorbjornsen, charging up the leaderboard at the WM Phoenix Open. He finished T3, one stroke behind Chris Gotterup, who defeated Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff. I’ve bet so much money on the 2024 PGA TOUR University’s Valedictorian that I’d be on tilt if he won his first PGA TOUR event, and I didn’t have money on him.

Granted, Thorbjornsen getting his first win at a signature event at a course where most of the field has played before is unlikely. But he played college golf nearby at Stanford, which is only a 90-to-120-minute drive, and Pebble Beach is one of the five most famous American golf courses. Hence, I’m sure Thorbjornsen has played here before and isn’t flying blind, so to speak.

More importantly, he is a strong kid with one of the best swings on TOUR, which plays well at any course, especially one like Pebble Beach, which is susceptible to high winds on the coast. You have to score on the Par 5s here, and Thorbjornsen has the power to hit the green in two strokes; he ranks seventh in this field for Par 5 scoring over the last 50 rounds, per Betsperts Golf.

With all his upside, when I found a 46-ish-to-1 on Thorbjornsen at Kalshi, I had to bet it. Everyone, myself included, thinks he will win a tournament this year, and the AT&T Pebble Beach stage isn’t too big for him.

J-Day has the best history at Pebble Beach for someone who’s never won. He’s finished in the top 25 in all 11 starts at Pebble Beach, with seven top-10s. I mean, Day has gone through ups and downs since peaking in 2015-16 and has still played well at Pebble Beach.

It’s literally his “happy place”. The 2015 PGA champion finished T2 at the 2026 American Express and T38 at the Farmers, which is disappointing given his successful track record at Torrey Pines. But Day hit his irons well at the Farmers, and Torrey Pines is one of the toughest courses on TOUR, so I’ll give him a pass.

Still (and I’m probably jinxing him and me by writing this), Day always plays well at Pebble Beach, regardless of his form, because his short-game is so good here. He’s gained strokes chipping in nine visits to Pebble Beach, broke even last year, and has gained strokes putting 10 times.

If he’s healthy, Theegala is much better than his odds indicate. Last year, he was +6000 at Pebble Beach. After missing a lot of time last year with an injury, Sahith has started all four tournaments so far this season. He’s finished T31 at the Sony Open, T8 at the American Express, T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and T18 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Theegala has shot under-par in 14 of his 16 rounds on TOUR this season. He said how important it was for him to bounce back this year, and Sahith is looking like his old self. According to Betsperts Golf, Theegala has the best short-game (chipping and putting) on TOUR this season.

A native Californian who was a college superstar at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Sahith is used to playing on these tricky West Coast Poa greens, and Pebble Beach is one of the toughest places to putt at. He has gained strokes with his putter in 12 of his 13 career starts at courses with Poa greens.

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There is a phenomenon in golf betting where people won’t bet on someone who recently won a tournament, unless you’re a top-five player in the world at the peak of his powers. The idea is that golf is hard, and you’re unlikely to have wins close together or win back-to-back tournaments.

Despite Rose being the third-best player on the Official World Golf Rankings, he isn’t at the “peak of his powers” because he is 45 years old. That said, between winning the Farmers his last time out and Pebble Beach having the strongest field of the season thus far, Rose won’t be a popular survivor pick. At least that’s part of my analysis for using him here. The rest of it is written above.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.