Unlock the Shocking Secret Behind Today’s Most Unbelievable Story!
Is there a “perfect” moment to catch fire before March Madness? Last year’s champs, Florida, sure seemed to nail it with six straight wins heading into the tournament — but then there’s Villanova’s 1985 run, where cooling off right before March still led them to the crown. So how do you actually measure which college hoops teams are hitting their stride at just the right time? Enter TRACR, the savvy stat that peeks beyond wins and losses to reveal who’s truly heating up on the court. As February unfolds, and eyes turn toward the madness of conference tournaments and NCAA showdowns, it’s worth asking: which teams are surging under the radar and might just bust some brackets? Let’s dive into the TRACR leaders making waves—and maybe making us rethink the whole “hot at the right moment” myth. LEARN MORE.
In a prelude to March Madness, we’re looking at the men’s college basketball teams that have been making the biggest gains in TRACR in recent weeks.
There’s not a definitive answer on how hot a team wants to be at the start of the NCAA Tournament.
Before Florida won its six NCAA games to emerge as last year’s national champion, it entered March Madness with six straight wins, including against five nationally ranked opponents while also claiming the SEC title.
So the Gators heated up at the right time.
But think back to Villanova’s 1985 title. The Wildcats lost their final regular-season game by 23 points. After winning one Big East Tournament game, they were bounced out by 15.
Runs toward March can vary, but teams prefer to end well before it becomes win-or-go-home.
While certain teams are heating up before our very eyes, we also can measure it by using TRACR, our net efficiency metric that calculates how well a team performs based on who it plays and who is on the court.
The month of February feels like the right time to check which teams have had the biggest recent gains in TRACR, but we’re extending the time period back to Jan. 31 because that was a Saturday with a full schedule of important games.
Some of the risers include the very best teams in college basketball, such as No. 1 Michigan. Some are in first place in their conference standings. Some just may deserve a closer look for a possible upset or two as the men’s schedule advances to conference tournaments, then March Madness.
Biggest Increase in TRACR in High-Major Conferences
ACC, Big 12, Big East Big Ten and SEC (Jan. 31-Feb. 16)
1. Baylor (Big 12) +5.17 (to 15.38) – Although buried in the Big 12 standings, the Bears have some winnable games upcoming plus a golden opportunity in Waco, where they’re 9-5, against an Arizona squad that suddenly has dropped back-to-back games following a 23-0 start.
2. Michigan (Big Ten) +4.68 (to 42.08) – The Wolverines are riding a 10-game winning streak with consistency in both offensive TRACR and defensive TRACR, and that doesn’t reflect any better across their balanced lineup than with standout forward Yaxel Lendeborg, whose 10.46 VAPR (Value Added Performance Rating) is an equal 5.23 O-VAPR and 5.23 D-VAPR.
3. Florida State (ACC) +3.95 (to 12.53) – More than two-thirds of the Seminoles’ recent gain has been in O-TRACR, and it includes a 23-point win over a 17-win Virginia Tech squad. It was Florida State’s best shooting performance (61.8%) since Nov. 20, 2023 against UNLV. Ironically, leading scorer Robert McCray V was the one starter below 50.0% in the Va Tech win, but he’s on a 12-game run in double figures.
4. Wisconsin (Big Ten) +3.43 (to 22.48)
5. Purdue (Big Ten) +2.96 (to 29.74)
6. Providence (Big East) +2.37 (to 9.97)
7. Oklahoma (SEC) +2.15 (to 13.71)
8. Illinois (Big Ten) +1.99 (to 34.73)
9. Georgetown (Big East) +1.92 (to 9.11)
10. Kentucky (SEC) +1.83 (to 22.78)
11. Louisville (ACC) +1.80 (to 30.83)
12. Wake Forest (ACC) +1.52 (to 11.89)
13. Oregon (Big Ten) +1.43 (to 3.88)
14. Florida (SEC) +0.84 (to 34.59)
15. UConn (Big East) +0.76 (to 27.03)
Biggest Increase in TRACR in All Conferences
Jan. 31-Feb. 16
1. Howard (MEAC) +11.96 (to +8.56) – The Bison are the hottest team in TRACR, having grabbed first place in the MEAC with five straight wins since Jan. 31, losing in that span only out of conference to Ivy frontrunner Yale.
2. Alabama State (SWAC) +9.97 (to -7.71) – Coach Tony Madlock is working to push the right buttons, like late last season, when the Hornets went from a 9-6 start in SWAC play to winning its final three regular-season games, the SWAC Tournament and a matchup against Saint Francis (Pa.) in the NCAA First Four.
3. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley) +9.72 (to 16.16) – A terrific January ended well with against Evansville and has continued into a 4-1 stretch (the wins by 20.3 points on average) with only a five-point road loss to first-place Belmont.
4. Samford (Southern) +9.35 (to 9.33)
5. Prairie View A&M (SWAC) +7.80 (to -10.10)
6. Boston U. (Patriot) +7.55 (to 3.03)
7. Merrimack (MAAC) +7.42 (to 9.31)
8. Coppin State (MEAC) +7.40 (to -22.85)
9. Tennessee Tech (Ohio Valley) +7.00 (to -6.01)
10. Hofstra (CAA) +6.78 (to 10.93)
11. Chicago State (NEC) +6.78 (to -12.97)
12. Texas State (Sun Belt) +6.77 (to 1.66)
13. Arkansas State (Sun Belt) +6.75 (to 10.89)
14. Denver (Summit) +6.75 (to 3.37)
15. UNCG (Southern) +6.38 (to -2.65)
Conference Leaders in TRACR Increase
Jan. 31-Feb. 16
America East: UMass Lowell +4.23 (to -9.10)
American: East Carolina +2.70 (3.38)
Atlantic 10: Fordham +4.15 (to 6.59)
ACC: Florida State +3.95 (to 12.53)
Atlantic Sun: Bellarmine +5.85 (to -2.48)
Big 12: Baylor +5.17 (to 15.388)
Big East: Providence +2.37 (to 9.97)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington +5.43 (to 2.93)
Big South: Gardner-Webb +4.47 (to 0.91)
Big Ten: Michigan +4.68 (to 42.08)
Big West: Cal Poly +5.94 (to 0.17)
CAA: Hofstra +6.78 (to 10.93)
Conference USA: UTEP +4.92 (to 1.86)
Horizon: Robert Morris +6.16 (to 8.29)
Ivy: Penn +3.51 (to 5.52)
MAAC: Merrimack +7.42 (to 9.31)
Mid-American: Central Michigan +6.01 (to -1.12)
MEAC: Howard +11.96 (to +8.56)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa +9.72 (to 16.16)
Mountain West: Wyoming +3.94 (to 6.44)
NEC: Chicago State +6.78 (to -12.97)
Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech +7.00 (to -6.01)
Patriot: Boston U. +7.55 (to 3.03)
SEC: Oklahoma +2.15 (to 13.71)
Southern: Samford +9.35 (to 9.33)
Southland: Stephen F. Austin +4.73 (to 18.36)
SWAC: Alabama State +9.97 (to -7.71)
Summit: Denver +6.75 (to 3.37)
Sun Belt: Texas State +6.77 (to 1.66)
West Coast: Oregon State +5.18 (to 1.79)
WAC: Abilene Christian +6.01 (to -0.20)
Top photo, from left, via AP News and Steven Worthy/Howard Athletics. For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Before They Go Dancin’: College Basketball Teams Heating Up at the Right Time appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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