2026 NBA MVP Race Heats Up: Dark Horses Set to Shake the Court!

You know, just when you think the NBA MVP race had settled into a predictable rhythm, Nikola Jokic decides to shake things up again. After sitting out for a spell with that pesky left ankle sprain back in January, the Serbian maestro has stormed back like a thunderclap—dropping nearly triple-double numbers over seven dazzling games. He’s not just padding stats; he’s reviving Denver’s playoff hopes and making a solid case for another MVP trophy. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is nursing an injury that’s shaken his ranking, leaving the MVP conversation wide open and buzzing louder than ever. Intrigued? Let’s dive into what’s really moving the needle in the MVP odds race this season. LEARN MORE

Don’t look now, but Nikola Jokic is back in the picture.

An afterthought in January when he missed 16 games with a left ankle sprain, the Serbian big man has risen to second on the NBA MVP Odds board thanks to an impressive seven-game stretch in which he has averaged 24.4 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 9.4 assists per game. His strong play has Denver back in the thick of the playoff hunt and has Jokic within striking distance of his fourth most valuable player trophy.

Jokic’s reemergence has coincided with an injury to reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has seen his odds move from -380 to -200 while he deals with an abdominal strain that is likely to sideline him until February 20, at the earliest.

Let’s take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Team

Movement

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

NBA MVP prediction

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He’s the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Doncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Stake: 2 units

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head

Player	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK
SGA	31.8	4.4	6.4	1.3	0.8
Jokic	28.7	12.3	10.7	1.4	0.8

It seems only fitting we have a two-horse race given Jokic’s love for all things equine. Voters will have to ask themselves whether they prefer SGA’s scoring and the Thunder’s superior record or Jokic’s overall brilliance and ability to stuff a box score.

📈 NBA odds over time

This year’s MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
Nikola Jokic +350
Luka Doncic +380
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
Victor Wembanyama +1200
Anthony Edwards +2500
Kevin Durant +5000
Cade Cunningham +6000
Jalen Brunson +8000
Donovan Mitchell +10000
Paolo Banchero +10000
Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

Highest ticket percentage:

Spurs

Victor Wembanyama 16.5%
Highest handle percentage:

Nuggets

Nikola Jokic 22.6%
Biggest liability:

Spurs

Victor Wembanyama

Popular NBA awards odds

How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

1st place vote: 10 points
2nd place: 7 points
3rd place: 5 points
4th place: 3 points
5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there’s no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

“Voter fatigue”: Players who’ve already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+400	Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Denver Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Denver Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Denver Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Houston Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Golden State Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Golden State Warriors