Why the Padres Might Be the Dark Horse Underdogs No One Saw Coming in 2026
The San Diego Padres headed into the 2026 season with some hopeful early moves during Spring Training, yet the latest projections suggest their outlook isn’t exactly glowing. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA have dialed back their expectations, painting a gloomier picture than one might have anticipated given the roster tinkering. Back in January, those analytics flagged several players slipping from previous seasons, and it’s clear the absence of high-impact acquisitions has them skeptical about the Padres’ chances. FanGraphs even forecasts a modest 79-83 record, slotting them fourth in the stacked NL West, while PECOTA slightly edges that to 80-82. Key departures like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish, and Robert Suarez have left a tangible hole, and the lingering low projections from last year’s squad drag the whole outlook down. It’s a tough pill to swallow for a team with playoff aspirations, especially when viewed through the cold lens of advanced stats. Yet, as any seasoned fan knows, numbers tell only part of the story.
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