SGA’s Comeback Sparks Clash with Jokic — Is the Over/Under About to Explode?

Ever wonder why some regular-season NBA games leave you glued to your screen while others barely make a blip? Well, Friday’s showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets is shaping up to be one of those unmissable battles—a rematch steeped in last season’s Western Conference Semifinals drama. The MVP duel isn’t just on the court with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić leading the charge as top favorites at DraftKings. But here’s the twist: after a sky-high shootout earlier this month, the odds-makers have bumped up the total points line, yet I’m leaning toward the old-school strategy—fading the over. Could SGA’s rusty return and Denver’s defensive setups dial the pace back enough to keep the score in check? If you’re hunting for edges and intrigue in NBA betting, this is your jackpot moment. Dive into the nitty-gritty and find out why I’m calling the shots the way I am. LEARN MORE.

There are a few regular-season games worth writing about and betting, and this is one of them. Earlier this week, we had one with the San Antonio Spurs vs. the Detroit Pistons. Friday, the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) host the Denver Nuggets (37-22) for a rematch of the 2025 Western Conference Semifinals, which OKC won in seven games.

Nuggets-Thunder feature first and second betting favorites to win the NBA MVP at DraftKings: The reigning MVP, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-250), and the guy who won three of the four MVPs before last season, Denver’s Nikola Jokić (+425). The Thunder won and covered as -7 favorites, 121-111, in their first meeting with the Nuggets this season, Feb. 1.

Gilgeous-Alexander was the best player on the floor that night. He scored a game-high 34 points on 11-for-16 shooting and dished out a game-high 13 assists. Jokic had one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 16 points and committing an uncharacteristic six turnovers.

SGA will play for the first time since the All-Star break, and OKC was 3-1 straight up (SU) and 4-0 against the spread (ATS) without him. Denver has alternated between winning and losing in its four games post-All-Star break (2-2 ATS), with a 103-84 win over the Boston Celtics its last time out.

When I looked UNDER the hood of their meeting earlier this month, my first reaction was, “Damn, these teams balled”. Granted, Jokić sucked, but Denver shot 45.7% from behind the arc, OKC shot 39.6%, and the Nuggets-Thunder cleared the 225.5 total by 6.5 points. As a result, the total for their rematch is eight points higher.

That said, I’m fading that overreaction for several reasons. They would’ve gone Under the total if it weren’t for their red-hot shooting. Betting Unders in big primetime games is an “old-school” handicapping angle. Gilgeous-Alexander might be rusty after not playing in 3+ weeks, and this game should have a playoff-like intensity.

Unpacking the first part, Nuggets-Thunder on Feb. 1 had a 96.1 Pace, which, for context, would be tied for 28th if it were a team. Denver wing Christian Braun didn’t play in that game, and he is the Nuggets’ best perimeter defender and will play Friday. They’ll be without forward Peyton Watson Friday, who scored a team-high 29 points vs. OKC earlier this month.

Also, Denver ranks 23rd in offensive rebounding rate and second in offensive turnover rate, while Oklahoma City ranks 29th and third in those two metrics. Meaning, it’s unlikely that there will be putbacks and easy points scored off turnovers. Finally, five of their seven conference semifinal games last season combined for fewer than 227 points.

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